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Analyzing Parker’s chances of a good Tommy John outcome

I spent some time talking with an orthopedic surgeon and came out of feeling a little less confident about the chances of a full recovery for Jarrod Parker when he undergoes Tommy John surgery next week.

At first it seemed to me that the chances for Parker to come back as good as new after what would be his second Tommy John surgery were a little more than 50-50.

But after my conversation with the surgeon, who has worked on pro, college and recreational athletes for years and who asked not to be named, it seems that maybe the chances are a little less than 50-50.

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A five-day assessment of the A’s — don’t see many chinks in the armor

It went by way too quickly. I’ve filled in for John Hickey for five days and it’s already over. Now I head crosstown to the Giants to fill in there for five days before heading home.

Even in this short time, however, I saw enough to build a pretty strong assessment. The A’s are going to be very tough to beat again. They have the deepest rotation in the division. And they may have the ridiculous bullpen in baseball, even with Ryan Cook still working his way back from a shoulder issue and Eric O’Flaherty, recovering from Tommy John surgery, not likely to join the team until July.

I got to see all five starters throw and they all looked sharp. I’m quickly over my concerns about Scott Kazmir after watching him throw Wednesday. He throws strikes, works quickly, has a very good pitch arsenal, and beyond all that, it’s just nice to have a lefty back in the A’s rotation. He looks like the guy who pitched for Tampa Bay when he was at his best. He may not be able to match Bartolo Colon’s incredible year in 2013, but he shouldn’t have to. You can see all five of the starters winning anywhere from 12 to 15 games this year, backed by a bullpen I can’t wait to see terrorize the American League. Sonny Gray could be better than that if he shows the kind of stuff he did in the playoffs, both in terms of his stuff and his mental approach. So could Jarrod Parker, who is a breakout year waiting to happen. Even if someone falters, you’ve got Tommy Milone, who pitched four sterling shutout innings a few days ago. When Milone is your starter safety net, you are filthy deep.

I don’t see many issues with the position players, either. Josh Donaldson looks like he’s primed to back up his monster year of 2013 and become a bona fide star. I equate him a bit to Stephen Curry of the Warriors. Curry was shafted out of an All-Star spot two years ago when people didn’t recognize his total game until this year. Same thing happened to Donaldson last year, but now they know who he is. He’s not just a tremendous hitter with amazing power to all fields for a man his size, he’s a superb defensive third baseman and a good runner. Bottom line, he’s already a star. The rest of the world just doesn’t know it yet.
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Facing long odds, Nakajima will nonetheless give A’s another try and be well paid for it

Hiroyuki Nakajima made his arrival with the A’s Tuesday in a far less “Hiro-ic” atmosphere than he did a year ago, when he was showered with attention from the U.S. media and hordes of reporters from his native country of Japan.

In fact, using the word Nakajima tossed out regarding general manager Billy Beane at his memorable first press conference, there was absolutely nothing “sexy” about it. After reporting in at the A’s minor league spring training camp Tuesday at Papago Park, Nakajima was probably fortunate to even be playing in a spring game his first day due to an injury to prospect Addison Russell. And there was nothing too dramatic about his interview sessions, either.

Nakajima, who signed a two-year, $6.5 million contract last year but wound up never playing a day in the major leagues, is not on the 40-man roster and his chances of getting back onto it at this point are probably slim. Face it, the A’s made a mistake in signing the Japanese infield star last year, but at least they didn’t compound it by forcing him into the lineup. They quickly covered their error by acquiring Jed Lowrie, who had a terrific year. As for the money lost, that’s back pocket pain for John Fisher and Lew Wolff, not A’s fans.

A year from now, it will be just another what-if story to tell, with Russell likely moving into the shortstop spot for the next several years and nobody giving Nakajima a second thought. Even if he does show well in Sacramento and winds up in the majors, it’ll be as a bit player trying to help, and he’ll likely be gone from the organization at season’s end.

Manager Bob Melvin was frank about the 31-year-old Nakajima’s chances of playing in the majors with Oakland this year.

“There would probably have to be some injuries to guys we have here,” Melvin said. “But who knows? Anything could happen in baseball, and I think he realizes that, and I think that’s why he’s here working as hard as he is and trying to get back to the big leagues.”
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Parker looking for breakthrough year after “mediocre” 2013, other notes

Year Three of Jarrod Parker’s emergence into a mature, top-flight pitcher should be an interesting case study in 2014. Most people think, myself included, that he’s got it in him to be 15-20 game winner and a potential All-Star. Parker thinks so, too, which is one of his best attributes. He has a staff-ace outlook, and that’s something for a pitcher who’s still only 25.

Parker is ultra-serious about his craft, too, to the degree he often looks and sounds miserable, even after a good game. He’s a perfectionist. Part of it is his demeanor, too. He’s a quiet, cerebral type with high expectations of himself, and nothing is ever really quite good enough.

For instance, I was a little taken aback Monday when he said he thought his very creditable 2013 season was “mediocre” and not one that left him terribly satisfied. You can see some of his point. After all, his ERA went up a half-point from the previous year to 3.97. He gave up 14 more home runs and he finished with one less win even though he made more starts while finishing 12-8.

On the other hand, counting the playoffs, Parker exceeded 200 innings for the first time in his pro career, had a 19-start unbeaten streak –- longest in franchise history since Lefty Grove in 1931 (Lefty Grove!) — and won his only playoff start against Detroit in the American League Division Series. Most pitchers wouldn’t call that mediocre, but that’s the kind of bar Parker sets.

“I want to be great and continue getting where I need to be,” he said. “I always look and think there are adjustments that could have been made. There are just a lot of things you aren’t content with in a mediocre season. And in my mind, it was. I want to be better.”
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Elmore stuns Vogt in A’s talent-laden talent show … plus some real baseball news

The most highly anticipated event of the spring — the A’s first annual player talent show — was also the highlight of a day in which the A’s played to a fairly mundane 2-2 with the Chicago White Sox.

Organized by new closer Jim Johnson, who staged similar shows while with the Baltimore Orioles, the mid-morning show – held behind clubhouse doors in lieu of the usual morning workout – was a huge success, according to manager Bob Melvin and several players. Melvin said his players showed off surprising array of talent, and said the timing of the event came just at the right time to ease the monotony of mid-spring.

“I’ve seen several of these over the years, but I can’t remember a time when there was actually talent involved,” the manager said. :Usually it’s more laughing and booing somebody off the stage, where this was a very talented group, each and every guy. Jim Johnson said it best afterward, that we could have a fundraiser with the talent we had today.”
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Tidbit day highlighted by rare spring ejection for Melvin; Cook’s prognosis looking better

My first day in A’s camp this spring didn’t really need Bob Melvin getting run in a spring training game for basically saying nothing. There were enough other things going on to easily fill my notebook, but the Melvin ejection may have been the most intriguing development of the day.

Melvin almost seemed embarrassed that he was thrown out in the top of the seventh. He was tossed by home plate umpire Adam Hamari, who only started umpiring in the majors the middle of last season. Hamari, whom Melvin said afterward he didn’t know, called a first-pitch strike to A’s hitter Shane Peterson that Melvin thought was outside. The manager said, “Get ’em on the plate.” When Peterson was subsequently called out on strikes, Melvin said “you made your point” … and was promptly tossed.

“Usually the magic words come with four-letter words,” Melvin said, looking nonplussed. “What are you going to do? Usually when you get thrown out there’s some intent involved.”

Melvin, who was only ejected four times last season in 162 regular-season games, said it was only his second spring training ejection ever. His previous one came with Arizona, when he went out to plead the case of Luis Gonzalez, who had been ejected. This one seemed mild by comparision. And just a bit ridiculous.
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Sogard’s #FaceofMLB run `like going to Disneyland’

The bespeckled face of nerdpower isn’t, ultimately, the face of baseball.

A’s second baseman Eric Sogard’s wild ride through the Twittersphere came to an end Friday morning when a late push got the Mets’ David Wright over the top and a victory in MLB Networks’ #FaceofMLB competition.

“It was like going to Disneyland,’’ Sogard said Friday after the results were announced. “I just sat back and enjoyed the ride.’’

Sogard did nothing to promote his own candidacy, and said he was shocked when A’s fans originally picked him as the Oakland contestant in the competition. But as he rolled past the Cubs’ Anthony Rizzo, the Rockies’ Troy Tulowitzki, the Giants’ Buster Posey and the Jays’ Jose Bautista, his momentum morphed from a strong surge into a tidal wave.

Were fans into it? Just a little. They took photos of the man whose black-rimmed glasses have had him crowned the face of #nerdpower, digitally imposed them on every picture they could think of and inundated Twitter with them.

There was Sogard in a poster for the movie Fight Club. And Raiders of the Lost Ark. And Toy Story. And the list goes on.

“There were so many amazing memes,’’ Sogard’s wife, Kaycee, said. “Eric took it all in stride, but we loved them all. I’m going to track them all down and make a book of them. They’re too good to lose.’’

Sogard just laughed when asked if he was going to ask for a recount of the vote, which saw him lose to Wright by two percentage points, 51-49. Sogard had been ahead when the West Coast went to bed Thursday night, but the East Coast rallied early.

None of which bothered Sogard.

“It goes to show the passion of A’s fans,’’ Sogard said. “It’s not just about me, it’s about this team and the fans we have. They are amazing.’’

Reliever Sean Doolittle has a theory on how the Sogard phenomenon got so big so fast.

“Who are the Oakland A’s?’’ Doolittle said. A’s fans had a chance to flip baseball on its side and they did a great job of it.’’

As did the A’s players, at least those who are on Twitter.

“We had a blast with it,’’ Doolittle said. “It got to be seeing who could come up with the coolest things to say to promote Sogie.’’

Josh Reddick dropped a few names and got Larry the Cable Guy and WWE wrestler The Big Show on board on Sogard’s behalf.

Starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Dan Straily orchestrated a scam in which Gray directed to Straily a tweet of support of Sogard his “new’’ phone number, asking that Straily call him. The number was the A’s ticket office.

Jarrod Parker, Josh Donaldson, A.J. Griffin, Derek Norris, Stephen Vogt and Tommy Milone all were out in front in leading the charge for Sogard. Even former A’s pitcher Travis Blackley, now pitching in Australia, chipped in, as did Brett Anderson and Pat Neshek, both of whom spent 2013 with the A’s.

Tweeted Norris: “Vote for the guy whose glasses are so powerful he can see the future.’’

Tweeted Crisp: “Who do you think showed @Coco_Crisp all his dance moves? Yup!! It was #EricSogard #FaceofMLB Sogie’s got skills.”

Tweeted Cook: “My timeline is a joke …  #EricSogard #FaceofMLB all over the place!

“I think you saw the personality of this team come out through all this,’’ Gray said. “Everybody was into it.’’

Sogard, a second baseman who has a fight ahead of him to hold the job he won last spring, won’t soon forget any of this.

“We may not have the most fans, but we have amazing fans,’’ Sogard said. “They get the credit for all this. This was them.’’

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Donaldson ready to settle in as A’s No. 2 hitter this season

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As Thursday’s Cactus League lineup suggested, Josh Donaldson is looking at a new role for the A’s in 2014.

He drove in a team-best 93 runs for the A’s last season, mostly batting third, fourth, fifth and sixth. He was in the lineup batting second against the Brewers Thursday, and that’s likely to be where he fits in for Oakland moving forward.

The No.2 slot isn’t typically where teams put their most prolific RBI bat, so it says something about both the A’s and about Donaldson that this is the current thinking regarding the third baseman’s role in 2014.

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