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What are the chances of a complete return for Parker?

The A’s are hitting the reset button with their starting rotation with the news that probable opening day starter Jarrod Parker will undergo Tommy John-style ligament replacement surgery in his right elbow and miss the entire 2014 season.

It’s the second time since 2009 that Parker will have Dr. James Andrews perform the surgery. There is a relatively small sample size to determine the success rate of pitchers who have had multiple Tommy John operations, but it’s becoming more and more frequent.

“Unfortunately, there is more data on this than there was four years ago,’’ Oakland assistant general manager David Forst said. “In the last week (the subject) has come up a number of times. It’s hard to predict right now. You don’t know the recovery rate on guys with a second Tommy John. It’s unfortunate that it’s more frequent.’’

According to some medical estimates, the success for the surgery is 90 percent; after a second surgery the number drops to 60 percent.

Former A’s reliever Jason Isringhausen had the surgery three times and came back to pitch each time.

Talking about the multiple surgeries with the Washington Post in 2012, Isringhausen laid out the path ahead of Parker.

“You really have to follow the protocol and do what is asked of you by the doctors and therapists so you don’t re-injure the graft in your elbow,’’ Isringhausen said. “I think that’s the main thing: patience. Because you feel really good really quick, and you want to throw, and then all you can do when you do that is tear it up again.’’

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Jarrod Parker will miss 2014 with 2nd Tommy John surgery

Jarrod Parker facing the Dodgers in his last spring start before injury problems cropped up

Jarrod Parker facing the Dodgers in his last spring start before injury problems cropped up

The A’s starting rotation got walloped with bad news Monday with the determination that right-hander Jarrod Parker will miss the 2014 season.

Parker, who has been dealing with right forearm discomfort, met with Dr. James Andrews Monday in Florida, and the decision has been made that Parker needs Tommy John-style ligament replacement surgery.

It’s the second go-around with Tommy John surgery for Parker, who had it in 2009 and missed the 2010 season. He’s scheduled to under the surgery a week from Tuesday in Pensacola with Andrews in charge.

The A’s are already missing starter A.J. Griffin to being the season. He needs three weeks rest for elbow strain before he throws again

Scott Kazmir was scratched from his start Monday, but his triceps stiffness is considered relatively minor and he could start again Tuesday or Wednesday.

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Parker had natural reluctance to letting pain slow him down

Jarrod Parker facing the Dodgers in his last spring start before injury problems cropped up

Jarrod Parker facing the Dodgers in his last spring start before injury problems cropped up

The uneasy balance between healthful prudence and competitive drive showed itself in spring training in the person of A’s starter Jarrod Parker.

Parker had forearm problems in September and October that he had checked out after the season. Rest was the prescription, and for the offseason Parker did as prescribed, and he didn’t feel any discomfort in his arm.

The early days of spring weren’t bad, but the more he threw, the more he had trouble getting comfortable or even throwing without pain.

He tried to pitch through it hoping things would clear up, but on Thursday’s side session, both pitching coach Curt Young and manager Bob Melvin noticed his struggles. Melvin called him into his office, and it was then that Parker admitted the pain was back.

Does it mean that the diagnosis this winter to rest was wrong? Not necessarily. For one thing, until Parker is checked out by Dr. James Andrews, there’s no knowing what the problem is. For another, while the discomfort is in the same area, it’s not the same pain, at least in Parker’s thinking.

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