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Basketball: Brackets, computers, polls
By Jeff Faraudo
Monday, February 15th, 2010 at 12:37 pm in Basketball, Rankings.
Cal’s two wins last week have prompted ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi to boost the Bears up to a No. 8 seeding in this week’s NCAA Tournament bracket projection.
Lunardi has the Bears facing No. 9 UTEP in Milwaukee with a second-round matchup vs. Kentucky looming.
Cal remains the only Pac-10 team to earn a spot in ESPN.com’s projected bracket.
Saint Mary’s is one of Lunardi’s “last four in,” a No. 12 seed facing Temple in Spokane, Wash.
Syracuse retains one of the four No. 1 seeds despite its loss Sunday to Louisville. The other No. 1 seeds are Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova.
Here’s a link to Lunardi’s latest bracket projection.
Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com isn’t quite as generous in his bracket, awarding the Bears a No. 12 seed, and projecting them to face Pitt in Spokane. That would set up a potential second-round game with home-town favorite Gonzaga.
COMPUTER RATINGS: Cal is No. 24 in today’s CollegeRPI.com computer ratings. The rest of the Pac-10: 52. Washington; 64. ASU; 84. USC; 86. Arizona; 119. WSU; 134. UCLA; 158. Oregon; 164. Stanford; 185. OSU. Saint Mary’s is No. 44.
The Bears also are No. 24 in the official NCAA version of the RPI.
Cal is No. 31 in the latest Sagarin computer ratings.
TOP-25 POLLS: Still no Pac-10 team in either of AP writers top-25 or the ESPN/USA Today coaches poll, although Cal did garner six votes from the coaches. Here are both polls.
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February 15th, 2010 at 1:04 pm
The last thing I want is an 8-9 seed. I would prefer to be an 11 or 12, in truth. That would give us a decent chance after we advance. I am reletively certain our first opponent will overlook us given the national media’s opinion of the Pac 10. All the better for us.
February 15th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
I’d like to have Cal stay out of the top 25 rankings as long as possible. Seems like bad luck when Cal gets ranked in the top 25.
In reality, Cal is definitely one of the top 25 teams. They are playing better and better as a team, and everyone is getting healthy at the right time. When Randle, Christopher, Robertson, Boykin, and Guitierez all have good games on the same day, they will be tough to beat.
February 15th, 2010 at 1:46 pm
I am not sure I can put us in the Top 25 without knowing if MSF is fully healthy. Without the muscle, I think too many teams would be able to impose their will on us. Not that we couldn’t beat some of them any given night, but unless we end the season with a good showing in the second round of the NCAAs, we don’t belong in the top 25.
February 15th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
The most relevant Sagarin rating is the Predictor rating which tracks well with Vegas odds for a game. Cal ia rated 15th in the nation with the Predictor. In predicting a game, 4 pts are added to the home team’s predictor rating and the difference in predictor ratings is the predicted difference in the game.
February 15th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
I would much rather be a 7-seed, a 10-seed, an 11-seed, or a 12-seed over an 8-seed or 9-seed. 11s and 12s always play some overhyped team from the ACC, Big-10, or Big-12. 8s playing 9s is always close, and then you have the joy of playing a 1-seed.
If we win out the regular season (in my mind, a big IF), we deserve a 7. If we couple that with a Pac-10 tourney win, then we deserve a 5 or 6.
February 15th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
We don’t want to play UTEP- 10-1 in Conf USA! I’ve watched them a few times this year but these projections are not that accurate and there is plenty of time yet.
Looking at the two major polls we are somewhere around 35-40 if you count votes. That’s probably fair.
February 16th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
IF (and I also stress *IF* Cal wins 4 of its last 5regular season games and then wins the PAC-10 Tournament (which I think is realistic and possible), its resume for the Big Dance would be:
- 24-9 record overall
- Pac-10 regular season champs
- Pac-10 tournament champs
- Winners of last 10 of 11 games
- Neutral Site Record of 4-2 (I am counting the Pacific game here and all 3 conference tourney games)
- Road Record of 6-5 (5-6 if one of Cal’s losses is on the road)
- RPI of low 20′s / high-Teens (18-24 I guess)
- Strength of Schedule in the Top-10.
The Big Dance Selection Committee always favors SOS, road wins, late-season performance and big wins. We have all of those except for the “big win(s)”. We have only one “ugly” loss and that is UCLA at home (never thought I would type that sentence ever in my life, but there you go.)
Even so, in this scenario, I bet we’d wind up a #5 seed at the WORST. And a #4 seed with that resume makes the most sense to me.
February 16th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
One last parting shot – do you really think the Big Dance Selection committee puts one of the Big-Six conference champions in a seed as low as #8? I know the Pac-10 is down this year, but c’mon, really? Really?
February 16th, 2010 at 3:30 pm
I agree with CalJeff, if Cal can do all that, we are looking great.
However, what if Cal losses two of five games left and there is a 3 way tie for the regular season championship, and then USC or UCLA win the Pac-10 tourney in LA with home court advantage.
Yes, then 1 team will get a 9 seed, and Cal might limp in with an 11 seed.
In order to avoid such an awful outcome, Cal really does need to finish strong. We’re either going to look really good, or not good at all if we can’t create separation in the standings. Winning the Pac by only 1 game and then flaming out in the Pac 10 tourney is not going to be a good seed. We want to win by two games and go far in the PacTourney!
Without a center, none of the rosey scenarios are guaranteed.