You can wonder and wonder all you want and look at things from a worst-case scenario, but all you have to know is that we are in.

Oh, and we’re definitely in the tourney. It may be much more helpful to the conference if we don’t win the whole thing @ Staples. No need for paranoia.

Two other things:
-By all accounts, the bubble is soft this year
-the injury crutch is huge for the November losses.

I think a win on Saturday gets us in.

That’s the difference between “should be in” and “no chance for at-large bid”.

The reason for such a disparity in opinion is that Cal has an impressive RPI but no impressive wins. (Cal has managed this by playing only one team with an RPI worse than 200.)

More on Cal’s historically unique NCAA tournament resume:
• Pac-10 champion (at least a split title). The Pac-10 is #8 in conference RPI.
• 20-9 overall
• 12-5 in conference
• 5-8 in non-home games
• RPI: 21
Only one eligible team in the RPI top 25 has missed the tournament since 1994
• SOS: 11
• W-L vs RPI top 50: 0-4
• W-L vs RPI 51-100: 5-2
• Cal has zero wins against the RPI top 50 and has 3 losses to RPI 100+ teams (at USC, at Oregon St, UCLA)
Only eight teams have earned at-large bids the past 16 seasons without beating at least one top-50 opponent, and none of those bids came with the current selection committee
• Cal has beaten every team in the Pac-10 at least once.

The selection committee probably won’t do this, but drilling down further:

Opponent RPI
Cal’s Record
1-10 0-3
11-20 0-0
21-30 0-0
31-40 0-1
41-50 0-0
51-60 3-1
61-70 1-0
71-80 0-0
81-90 1-1
91-100 0-0

• Cal has played only one game against an RPI top 11-50 team the entire year (Ohio St).
• Cal had injury issues against Syracuse, Ohio St, and New Mexico.
• The only game that a healthy Cal team has played against a RPI top 50 team was at #1 Kansas.
• #53 Washington and #54 Arizona St are just outside the RPI top 50.

There are even more considerations:
• Does the “eye-test” help or hurt Cal, a senior-laden team with good outside shooting, but a lack of inside depth?
• No major conference regular season champion has missed the NCAA tournament.
• The UCLA athletic director is this year’s committee chairman and is allowed to make a case for Cal.

If Cal loses at Stanford (rivalry game/letdown effect) and in the first round of the Pac-10 tournament (very possible if Cal’s opponent is Oregon St), then Cal probably won’t make the NCAA tournament.
Win out until the Pac-10 tournament final, and Cal is probably in.
Anything in the middle of those 2 outcomes becomes extremely hard to predict.

I hope I’m not being too much of a paranoid Cal fan. More than anything, the historical uniqueness is fascinating.

they were given an at-large bid in 2004/05 with 8 losses, and in 2007/2008 with 6 losses.

last year they had 6 losses going into selection sunday, with wins over Fresno St, Providence, Oregon, Southern Ill, Utah St, San Diego St and they didn’t get in.

maybe there are fewer worthy teams this year.