By Jonathan Okanes
Tuesday, September 6th, 2011 at 2:28 pm in Football, Mid-week.
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We got 1 vote in the coaches poll.
Line vs CU is 5. Line vs Fresno was 10. Fresno seems like a better team than CU. Thinking 5 is because of our Road woes. Agree w TM. Bears are on the upswing. Cal +5 sure seems like a great bet. Esp if Coach M straightens out the O line. Really like the O w ZM.
It’s Cal – 5, and yeah, it seems like an awesome bet. I’d be all over that but I decided a few years ago that my betting on Cal curses them and makes them lose. I vowed to never bet on a Cal game again.
Who has the advantage in gaining inside knowledge about the other team – Cal with Kiesau and Ambrose versus Colorado with Marshall?
The line is now 6-1/2 points with an over/under of 48-1/2.
that translates to a 27-21 Cal victory
Forget the point spread, it’s there to maximize wagering not real handicapping. That said, Cal should be favored considering last year and the opening game.
My bad, -5/6.5. Milo, exactly. But the odds makers generally do an excellent job even on 21 + point spreads. So if you agree the point spreads are generally accurate, then beating the spread is an entertaining pursuit. But it’s just for fun cause I never met a gambler or day trader who ever lost money.
Re: Marshall, I probably read he went to CU and forgot about it until I read the above article. Marshall coaching the CU O line is another reason we’re going to beat CU and the spread even on the road at altitude.
the odds makers get paid well to set the line as close as they can to get that 50/50 split on bets, right off the bat. it’s true that it doesn’t matter what the score is, as long as there’s 50% on both sides of the spread. the problem is, if the spread is off (ie. if everyone thinks cal is going to win big, but the odds makers don’t account for that and set the line at 4, like they did, the line moves to 6.5, like it has. there is a ton of money riding on cal right now. 2.5 is a pretty big move. it doesn’t matter if half the money goes on colorado now, as there’s too much on cal. if they move the spread over 7 to capture even more colorado bets, say to 7.5, and cal wins by 7, they’ll lose all the bets on both sides. colorado covers at +7.5, and all those early cal bets at -6.5 or lower pay out as well. then the casinos are doubly-screwed. this is why it’s so important to get the line right. it should have opened at 7.5.
as a side note, since more people bet on favorites than underdogs, there’s often an advantage to betting on underdogs and getting the extra point or so there, if you can pick them. saturday is not one of those days.
i don’t bet unless i’m in vegas, and even then, taking the bears has always been a curse. seems like a nice opportunity to take colorado here, +6.5. buy yourself a nice Cal victory. they may even win by less than 6.5, and you’ll not only win your bet, you’ll be happy with the bears. this is the perfect emotional hedge. i still think cal wins by 4 TDs though. but there’s nothing worse than cal losing, AND losing money too.
I like to post odds and over/under as it provides the opinion of those pros who project winners based on money to win or lose; not on emotions, local-bias, or how we would like the game to turn out. The odds makers are eerily accurate.
Why did they make Cal only 4 points when all of us know that is very far off.
It’s interesting to read the comments from us
all-knowing, guru wanabees(me included). Most of us(me included) are too weak to play our money to match our 3-4 TD victory predictions. If a person felt strongly about the 3 TD margin, this is an opportunity to retire for life. If the individual feels the real spread is 3/4 TDs, then, he should be comfortable giving me 10-14 points.
I think most of us would make different predictions if we were forced to play $20,000.
A lot of fans play fantasy football- for small wagers.
It is fun. It would be interesting to have a fantasy
‘gambling’ league. Players would pick teams basd on the betting line. I think the selections would be different than what they would post.
Let’s hope the odds are way off and there is a 3/4 TD spread. I want to see Bridgford Manuel/Briggs
If my interpretation is correct; the moneyline is now $250.
You bet $250 on Cal to win outright, you win $100.