Comments on: Football: Cal announces signing of two latest recruits Bennett, Fletcher

By: Gobears49

Gobears49 — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 17:30:40 +0000

Unless higher ranked guys are more likely to transfer than lower ranked guys (and I would not be surprised if that were true), and unless I see evidence to the contrary, I think the more higher ranked a player is out of high school the more likely they will succeed in college as a football player. Of course there are many, many exceptions to this, like there is to everything. But it’s best to play the probabilities. I haven’t checked, but I think you can add Alualu and Cameron Jordan to Juancho’s list of very highly rated guys out of high school who are now playing in the NFL (both got the starting job as first year pro’s).

Cal has done this with its QB’s, where they now have three Elite 11 QB’s on their roster, the same as last year. That is probably more than any other team in the country. Hopefully, that is a predictor of future performance for Cal from that position.

By: Juancho

Juancho — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 00:23:48 +0000

Thanks Covina.

I respect your point. I guess my counter argument would be that the Patriots and Bill Bellicheck are a 180 (or 360 to quote Jason Kidd) from Jeff Tedford.

Tedford’s success came with 4 and 5 stars. Rodgers 4. Desean Jackson 5. Marshawn Lynch 4. Jahvid Best 4. Lavelle Hawkins 4. Desmond Bishop 4. etc.

I see your point. And agree rankings at some point mean very little. But there is a little bit of correlation to Cal’s success and the recruiting of 4-5 star guys.

One way I look at it is this. Of course we’ll take the guys with heart and who want to wear the blue and gold.

But look at Michael Hutchings who may be the top linebacker in next year’s recruiting class. He’s a 5 star. He plays for De La Salle. I think we all hope he comes to Cal.

A personal failing of mine is sometimes when I read comments that intimate “well we don’t need those high rated guys b/c we’d rather have the underdogs with heart” I overreact. And in my mind I think, so should we then not go after guys like Hutchings and just focus on underrated guys? That’s drastic but I admit that’s a failing of mine.

By: covinared

covinared — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:55:29 +0000

see the rivals article today. half the patriots yesterday did not have 3 stars out of high school.

By: covinared

covinared — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:24:25 +0000

btw: I appreciate all the info you post, even though I may not agree with all your conclusions.

By: Juancho

Juancho — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:14:31 +0000

I agree with your points Covinared.

I feel that the rankings aren’t an end all and fail-safe. But I do feel like they are for me a good guidance system when it comes to knowing how recruits (prospects) rate compared to their colleagues.

You look at Boise State’s rankings and realize how good their coaching is. Stanford is a little different though. Because Luck, DeCastro, Martin, Toilolo, Skov were all 4-5 star guys.

By: covinared

covinared — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 20:44:08 +0000

Juancho: I am sorry for being too personal. I was wrong. To explain, I think you may be placing too much emphasis on number rankings of particular recruits as a measure of future success and direction of the program. The services rank different players differently sometimes, and some entire class rankings are significantly different. The overall class rankings are also not necessarliy an accurate predictor of future success (ex. Wisconsin, Stanford, TCU, Boise). What I think is most important is appears we filled our biggest needs with this group, even though we missed out on most of the big names. These player rankings are based mostly on physical tools. What is equally important is how the player will use those tools and adjust playing at a level where the level of play is much higher. All these guys are usually the best player by far in high school. Now they are amongst equals. Only when they mix it up on the field will a player’s true worth be known. Some guys also physically peak sooner than others. Predicting future success still has alot of crap shooting in it. You seem to also seem to overly regard Zach as a savior. I remember the press here in on Olson when he was the #1 qb across the board on rankings.

By: The Wisdom Cow

The Wisdom Cow — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:06:22 +0000

Gobears49, oh, not so fast. There are some factors that could enter play. First, every paper in AZ talked endlessly of the pressure on the program to keep Foster (a huge in-state talent), and much was made over his decommittment when Erickson was fired. Second, it clearly appeard, that the RB coach was kept on solely to get Foster’s signature. So, if there is any evidence in the form of tweets, e-mails, notes, whatever, regarding promises that were made, Foster may have been objectively lied to, and the LOI could be voided by ASU’s misrepresentations.

For a moment, assume such evidence exists. I would think ASU would first try to strong arm him into staying. Then, they would allow him to consider a release if he went to a non-Pac12 school. At the least, the school will try as hard as they can to save face. I’m kinda shocked there is no bigger news regarding the issue given Foster’s value. I suspect the school is managing to keep things somewhat mum.

By: Gobears49

Gobears49 — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 07:17:16 +0000

Thanks, Juancho. Don’t know the full list of guys on your list who orally announced they were going to Cal, but I they include Shaq, McCarthy, and maybe Shittu. Maybe, when you get some time, you can fill us in on the others on your list who said they were coming to Cal, though readership to this particular blog has died off so you may be wasting your time.

BTW, DJ Foster will never get out of his commitment to Arizona St. because their running backs coach left just after DJ signed. The formal commitment is to the school, and who recruited you to sign the commitment makes no difference. If Foster can get out of his commitment to ASU on those grounds, then everybody who is dissatisfied with their school would make similar assertions on grounds that what was promised to them did not occur. It would offer a whole can of worms that would take forever to resolve in each case and, in any case, the arguments that would be made are not legally supportable.

By: Juancho

Juancho — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 05:52:28 +0000

@gobears guys who considered Cal

Armstead oregon dl
Shaq washington s
Shittu stanford dl
Hoffpauir stanford s
Mccarthy ucla dl
Kenny walker ucla wr
Jordan payton ucla wr
Ish adams ucla cb
Darius hamilton rutgers dl
Kyle murphy stanford ol
Thomas johnson texas a & m wr
Yuri wright colorado cb
Joey oconnor ohio state ol
Ukeme eligwe florida state lb
Christo kourstidiz florida state te
Daje johnson tcu wr
Kevon seymour usc cb
Dj foster arizona state rb
Taylor mcnamara oklahoma te
Brandon beaver washington cb

By: Juancho

Juancho — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 05:10:10 +0000

Thanks for the mean words covina.