Also congratulations to Allen Crabbe for making the first team, to Harper for making the second team, and to Kravish for making the Freshman team. Cobbs received Honorable Mention as well.

http://www.pac-12.org/BasketballM/Tabid/1449/Article/147312/Pac-12-Mens-Basketball-Honors-Announced.aspx

One thing to note is that Cal played both CU and Furd on Senior night. Just like we had no business winning against Oregon (took a 21-10 run to end game), our only shot to win was to not get too far behind during that early emotional start to the game. Unfortunately in both cases we got down big and with a thin bench we were unable to get closer than 2-3 points. I know it may sound ridiculous but ASU beat AZ in a game they should have lost.

Win Thursday and its almost certain Cal is in the Dance.
Win Friday and they are in.
Lose Thursday and this could be the biggest Cal collapse into the NIT in 3 decades.

Three and a half weeks ago, the media started calling Cal a lock, the vast majority of Cal fans agreed (because, c’mon, what Cal fan doesn’t want to think we we are a lock), and they believed it.

I have a theory that proves right way too often: whenever a set of reasonable fans think something is a lock, like a bid or a game (even with 8 minutes left only up by 10), it usually translates that at least some players believe it, too. You following?

And when players believe a game is over or an achievement is a sure thing, they relax, even if only a bit. That difference usually results in the opposition getting the upper hand.

Cal’s trouble started as soon as they were called a lock for the NCAAs. Every game became a struggle, usually getting down early in every one.

Now, you would have thought the team would have been up for yesterday’s game, same as Colorado, but they clearly were not. I kind of believe Cal would have beaten Stanfurd silly had UW won against UCLA. Yet, UW losing + a hard week of practice turned all the focus into the expectation of a title. They eased up just enough for Stanfurd to punch them in the mouth in those first minutes and send us reeling, never to really recover composure and focus.

So, when reasonable fans note that Cal SHOULD/Will win their first Pac Tourney game (ASU beat AZ, but on their home court, just as Stanfurd beat us in Maples, but neither will beat Cal on a neutral court), I see overconfidence yet again. And while a loss to Stanfurd may currently put Cal in the play in (last four in) games, that depends on the number of at-large births available, and tends to ignore having not won a game in the three + weeks before the Tourney.

If they play their game, they should advance at least once and should be in the Tourney, but it’s only if they play like the team they were a month ago, before the press clippings got into some of their heads.

Seriously, with their lack of depth, they can easily lose to anyone if the refs make a few bad calls. They should know this and be focused for every game. And the fans should also know better than to think any game is a lock. But we never do, just read the majority of comments over the next week (or reread the last few) if you don’t believe me.

This column is for everyone in contention for the precious 13. Your tasks range from the sublime to the ridiculous:

1. No bad losses

This is the easy group. Most, if not all, have done enough for an at-large bid and must merely avoid the dreaded “bad loss” in their respective conference tournaments.

These teams, with their next opponent in parenthesis, are Saint Louis (La Salle or Richmond), Southern Miss (Rice or East Carolina), Cal (if Arizona State), West Virginia (if DePaul), UConn (DePaul) and Mississippi State (Georgia).

I do, however, disagree with you, WC. If Jorge could have sustained even some of the effort he’s shown throughout his Cal career in the last two weeks, he definitely would be POY material. He may not have been his team’s first offensive option, but he can score from 15 feet in, and is (was) an above-average offensive player overall.

The bottom line is that, in the last 5 games, he shot 33% from the field, vs. 46% the rest of the year, and 14% from 3pt range, vs. 33% the rest of the year. And it’s not like his early season numbers were padded against sub-Pac-12 talent this year.

The team did well this year, but, IMO, the realistic accomplishment of the conference regular season title was blown by poor efforts and a lack of focus in the final two games, a point Harper agrees with. The team is simply too thin, roster and front court, to have a run in either tourney (without luck or refs), so failing, by their own fault, towards the conference crown was a huge disappointment to me.

They lacked focus to start both games, then made matters worse in both by rushing the offense when down instead of playing their game. I am not usually pleased if they play poorly and win (as they did a few times down the stretch), and I am never too upset when they play well or give strong efforts but lose to a better team. That said, losing to an inferior team because you play your worst ball is as bad as it gets for me, personally.

1brsfan, think forward. If, IF, they lose their first Pac Tourney game, it will be 3 losses in a row (1, maybe 2 of them to a team with an rpi over 100). Cal’s rpi would go into the 45-55 range (currently 37), and Oregon needs to reach the conference title game to likely stay in the top 50 (currently 48) or we lose our so called top 50 rpi wins. The team has been playing their worst ball the past several weeks. The committee will find it hard to justify keeping them in the field. Worse, if Oregon makes the finals, against UW, then those two teams probably get the nod, making it even easier to leave the Bears out.

Sturdy, point of clarification, I meant too frenetic on D to be the main offensive option. He only really fills the stat sheet against the lesser clubs. And I really don’t consider it a slight to suggest him as a consummate support player. I actually think he’ll be getting minutes in the NBA (defensive guard replacement to rest the starters).

That said, this team played pretty well in LA this year (albeit not at the Staples Center), and should handle either Stanford or ASU. One more win over CU or OR, and they’re in the tourney for sure. Even a loss in that second game would at worst be to an RPI 75-ish Colorado (having had to get by OR should improve their RPI), which wouldn’t be a killer. And if it’s the Ducks, that’s an RPI top-50 team, which shouldn’t really affect Cal that much.

I predict they make it to the NCAA tourney with the next win, but just by the skin of their teeth, if that’s all they get.

I think a potential Cal – Furd rematch bodes well for Cal. No way yesterday happens again on a neutral court. It’s a pretty simple recipe for the team, win Thursday and they are in. Lose and it’s up to the committee and they are facing a potential NIT bid.