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Football: Pac-12 picks — Week 11

By Jeff Faraudo
Thursday, November 8th, 2012 at 6:32 pm in Football, Gameday, Pac-12 news.

The Eugene Register-Guard has determined that Oregon, at its current pace, could become the first BCS team to ever to score 100 touchdowns in a season.

It only seems like the Ducks scored that many just last Saturday against USC.

Which brings us to Oregon’s visit to Berkeley on Saturday night. Cal actually has played the Ducks about as well as any Pac-12 team in recent years.

Consider:

2011: Oregon won 43-15 in Eugene, but Cal led 15-14 at the half.

2010: The Ducks scored just one offensive touchdown in a 15-13 victory at Berkeley.

2009: Well, let’s ignore this one (a 42-3 Oregon win).

2008: Cal won 26-16 at Memorial Stadium.

So, over the past eight halves of football between the two teams, Cal has either played better or virtually even with the Ducks in five of them.

The difference this year isn’t Oregon’s improved speed, better defense or the  refinement of coach Chip Kelly’s offensive system.

The difference is Cal. While Oregon boasts the nation’s most prolific offense (54.3 ppg), the Bears rank 63rd in scoring defense (27.6 ppg allowed).

That defense has improved some in recent weeks, allowing 21 points or fewer in four of the past five games. At the same time, the offense has regressed, totaling just 22 points over the past three games, if you don’t count 21 garbage-time points in the lopsided loss at Utah.

And now the Bears will go at Oregon with their second-string quarterback.

There’s just no way this game adds up to anything other than an Oregon victory. And by a fairly sizable margin.

LAST WEEK: 6-0
SEASON: 52-20

Saturday

– Colorado at Arizona, 10:30 a.m. (FX): A strange starting time, but if the Pac-12 really didn’t want anyone to see the Buffaloes (1-8, 1-5) they should have made it 4:30 a.m. The Wildcats (5-4, 2-4), led by banged up quarterback Matt Scott, really need a bye. Well, they got one and the chance to get bowl eligible at the expense of the nation’s worst scoring defense. Arizona 42, Colorado 7.

– No. 13 Oregon State at No. 16 Stanford, noon (Fox): An intriguing matchup of two teams doing a two-step at the quarterback position. When the season start, it was Sean Mannion for the Beavers (7-1, 5-1) and Josh Nunes for the Cardinal (7-2, 5-1). Now we’ll see Cody Vaz vs. Kevin Hogan. Oh well, both teams are about defense and running the ball, anyway. With both still awaiting Oregon, this amounts to a Pac-12 North elimination game. Stanford 24, Oregon State 20.

– Arizona State at No. 21 USC, noon (Pac-12 Networks): Hard to believe the Trojans (6-3, 4-3) will give up 62 points again this weekend after doing so against Oregon. The Sun Devils (5-4, 3-3) have lost three in a row after a dynamite start. We think it will be four in a row because if the Trojans lose for the third straight game, AD Pat Haden might start his campaign to hire Chris Peterson. USC 38, Arizona State 28.

– No. 2 Oregon at Cal, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN): It’s good news/bad news for Cal (3-7, 2-5). The bad: This is not a match the Bears need to show the entire country. The good: By the time it starts to get out of hand, it’ll be way past everyone’s bedtime on the East Coast. Cal has fared better defensively against the Ducks (9-0, 6-0) than most conference opponents in recent years. That was then. Oregon 49, Cal 20.

– Utah at Washington, 7:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks): Winless on the road this season, the Utes (4-5, 2-4) are actually slightly favored over the Huskies (5-4, 3-3), which tells you the oddsmakers weren’t bowled over by UW’s win at Cal. This is a tough game to figure. The Huskies can become bowl eligible with a win, but that would come a week later, anyway, when they face Colorado. Utah had lost four in a row before scoring 98 points the past two weeks. Vegas doesn’t get rich by being stupid. Utah 24, Washington 21.

– No. 17 UCLA at Washington State, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN2): This game ought to draw about 14,000 in Pullman, with the Spokane fan base unwilling to drive 80 miles to sit in projected 19-degree weather for a night game against the red-hot Bruins (7-2, 4-2). UCLA has scored 111 points the past two weeks. The Cougars (2-7, 0-6) have scored 106 in six conference games. UCLA 49, Washington State 10.

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  • Will

    Hopefully, $C’s new ballboy doesn’t go rogue too! HAHA

  • Steve W

    It would take an epochal storm to keep Cal in this game. In 2008, it rained so hard at Memorial that the AstroTurf seams came apart and Cal won the game. Barring an appearance by Noah and a couple of Giraffes, this will heat ugly early.

  • CalBearister

    I think 49-20 is generous. Put me down for 63-3.

  • Eric

    The intriguing question is whether Cal’s first team, without Allen and QB’d by Bridgford, can score points on Oregon’s second and third team defenses in the second half. If yes, then I think we lose by 4 or 5 TDs. If no, we lose by 7 or 8.

  • BlakeStreetBear

    56-6 Oregon. Bye bye JT…maybe you’ll resign after the game???

  • Stay Golden

    Win the second half for JT.

  • Juancho

    Tedford isnt resigning. If he was we wouldnt have gotten that recruit this week. I firmly believe him when he said him and sandy havent talked and that the program is fine (in his mind).

  • BlakeStreetBear

    The program is not “fine” when it is selling half-price tickets for a game against the best team in the country.

    I wonder how many other programs have sold half-price tickets this season? And of those that have (if there even are any) I bet they’d beat JT’s Bears too.

    JT is so far outta touch with the “reality on the ground” that he might wanna consider a career in GOP politics. Keep drinking the Kool-aid…

    “The program is fine…” LMFAO!

  • rollonubears

    Stanfurd tickets vs. Oregon State are going for $15 on stubhub.

  • BlueNGold

    I hope JT has the guts to turn Bridgford and the offense loose and let them run with it. He has nothing to lose, and it might turn out to be a pleasant surprise. Go Bears, Go Bridgford and JT must go!

  • BlakeStreetBear

    @BlueNGold, what objective evidence can you possibly provide that might cause one to think that JT will “turn Bridgford and the offense loose and let them run with it”?

    crickets…

    JT has had nothing to lose on MANY MANY occasions in the past (including this year) and has 99/100 times chosen the conservative route, at least for the last 6 or 7 years. I was at the $c game in smell-A in ’10 (and ’08 and ’06) and we were down 21 nothing to start the game yet JT still punted from like the 50 on a 4th and 1! WTF?

    Maybe in the beginning, when JT was still a vertebrate, he may have done a “daring” thing or two, but since the big money has landed in his bank account, he seems to only wanna hold onto his job, not win a championship…just sayin’…Go Bears anyway!

  • BlakeStreetBear

    “I hope JT has the guts…” LOL!!! JT only has one gut and it is big and fat, kinda like his head.

    Sorry for the negativety, I used to revere the guy, but after watching 100 bad and gutless coaching decisions per game and watching him stick with Ayoob, Riley, Maynard ad nauseum I am over him, completely.

    Who’s next to wear the headset on the sideline? That is the only thing on my Cal football mind…

  • http://! BlueNGold

    BlakeStreet the first six words should tell you I was hoping, not expecting.