11

Basketball: Lunardi still giving Bears love

ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi continues to include slumping Cal in his NCAA tournament projection, although he now says the Bears among his last four teams with byes into the main 64-team bracket.

Lunardi projects Cal as a No. 10 seed, shuffling off to Buffalo to face No. 7 UMasas.

He has seven Pac-12 schools in the field, topped by No. 1 seed Arizona.

Also making the cut are No. 5 UCLA, No. 8 Arizona State, No. 10 Stanford, No. 10 Colorado and, in a first-four “play in” game, No. 12 Oregon.

*****

In the NCAA’s new official RPI computer rankings, Cal checks in at No. 53 — six spots lower than before losing at Arizona and Arizona State last week.

Arizona is No. 1, followed by UCLA at No. 19, ASU at No. 28, Colorado at No. 30, Oregon at No. 33 and Stanford at No. 42.

Jeff Faraudo

  • 1brsfan

    Interesting to see that RPI is not dictating seeding. Cal is ahead of CU on the S-curve by one spot and 10 spots ahead of Oregon even though we’re 51 in RPI and both of those teams are straddling 30.

    I can see why vs. Oregon (SOS in 270′s vs 12 for Cal) but CU seems to have slightly better profile.

    Need to beat Utah and then CU game could be a play-in game.

    Go Bears!

  • GoBears49

    I think Lunardi uses his own tools, not the NCAA’s to determine who gets in. Logically, overall records, not league records, are the most meaningful. Second is results from the last 12 games. Oregon and Stanford, ranked ahead of Cal in the RPI, beat us in that category (both 7 – 5 versus Cal’s 5 – 7). Also, Oregon and Stanford are ahead of Cal in five out six categories in records agains 1 – 25, 26 – 50, and 51 to 100 ranked teams.

    We will see how this plays out. Still think we are not in now, need to sweep this weekend and, if Stanford also sweeps, need to win one Pac – 12 tourney game, probably with Stanford losing theirs.

    To view the stats I mention above, as well as others see below. Still don’t understand why Utah’s overall record shown doesn’t take into account two games they played. I think Grand Canyon and Texas State, who they played, are D1 teams, as almost all teams they played are D1.

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/21

  • 1brsfan

    We’ll just have to wait and see and hope we do enough on the court to not have to sweat it out. Although as a Cal fan sweating it out is to be expected.

    I don’t see why Oregon’s RPI is so high considering their SOS. I thought a big component of the RPI is who you play and beat. The only team in the top half of the conference they have beaten is UCLA. At least Cal has Furd, Zona* and H2H vs. Ducks.

  • GoBears49

    As I pointed out above, using overall record rather than league record makes more sense, especially looking at strength of schedule. Why exclude teams outside your conference in doing that. Cal played two very good teams outside of the conference, both more highly ranked that all of the teams in the Pac -12 except for Arizona i.e. (#6 Syracuse and #9 Creighton — the second highest Pac – 12 ranked team is UCLA at #21). Although it just uses RPI rankings in making this determination, Oregon has a better record than Cal against RPI ranked teams 1 – 25 and 51 – 100 (much better in that category. Stanford is better than us in those two categories plus 26 – 50.

    Also, Cal has a worse overall record than all teams with a higher RPI ranking. I find it hard to think that Cal will get in with a worse overall record than teams who are in the top six in RPI. Cal loses out to the other teams in terms of overall record, last 12 games, and three stats in comparing records to top ranked (RPI) teams. It is just barely behind Oregon in SOS (strength of schedule), 48 for Oregon vs. 45 for Cal. Given that the NCAA selection committee appears to be stat oriented, and uses RPI categorizations to determine what those stats are, because Cal is very far behind six other Pac – 12 schools in looking at stat compilations using RPI, I think Cal is not in good shape to make the NCAA’s the way things now stand.

    See the overall RPI rankings below.

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi

  • GoBears49

    It is possible we could pass up Colorado in RPI ranking, forgetting the Pac – 12 tourney, if Cal wins both games this weekend and Colorado loses both of its games in the Bay Area. Then, Cal could have a better RPI than Colorado, an even overall record, a slightly better record the last 12 games, a lower SOS, and about the same record in the three categories of how the teams did against competition in three categories of top 100 teams.

  • Rollonubears

    Does anybody think we’d actually get in with a home split, and just a single win in this Pac12 tourney? I think a split would require two wins in the tourney.

  • Steve Fischer

    No in that scenario we just don’t deserve it, although there were some years when we weren’t selected and did deserve it.

    Over our last 10 games we pretty much stunk up the court. Our momentum is not good.

  • Wehofx

    Gotta sweep!

    Twitter:

    @CalMensBBall: Coach Montgomery “Offense is about decision making, defense is about heart and effort…those are the two ideas that we want to emphasize.”

    True dat! C’mon Bears show some heart!

  • GoBears49

    I agree, but it might depend on who the two wins are over in the tourney. This is just one of just a few possibilities to get in. I have just focused on a sweep this weekend, one of the last vestiges of my former optimism. To discuss them all would result in my writing something really long, and my stuff is long enough already.

  • 1brsfan

    Tough call but depends on whether we beat CU or Utah and who we beat in P12 tourney. Also would depend on how other bubble teams fare. If Oregon goes 0-2 and so does CU then out 1-1 is not terrible. Other bubble teams outside the conference also factor in.

  • 1brsfan

    After 3 fellow bubble teams got big wins tonight a sweep is a must! Starts with Utah! Go Bears!