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Basketball: The complicated road to a No. 4 seed

I have a headache.

Ah, but you are the beneficiaries because, with some help, I believe I have identified the four scenarios that could earn Cal a No. 4 seed and first-round bye in next week’s Pac-12 tournament.

There is no way for the Bears to climb into the No. 3 position, and best I can tell they cannot finisher lower than the No. 7 seed.

First, here are the standings headed into play Saturday:

Arizona 15-2
UCLA 12-5
Arizona State 10-7
Colorado 10-7
Cal 9-8
Oregon 9-8
Stanford 9-8
Utah 9-8
Washington 8-9
Oregon State 7-10
USC 2-15
Washington State 2-15

The seeding positions that are set: No. 1 Arizona; No. 2 UCLA; No. 10. Oregon State.

For the Bears to get No. 4 and a Thursday quarter-final against the No. 5/12 winner, here’s what has to happen:

– Cal beats Colorado, Arizona State beats Oregon State, Stanford beats Utah and Arizona beat Oregon. That leaves ASU at 11-7 and the No. 3 seed. Cal, Colorado and Stanford all would be 10-8 and Cal wins the tiebreaker based on its 2-1 record against the other two.

– Cal beats Colorado, Oregon State beats ASU, Stanford beats Utah, Arizona beats Oregon. That creates a four-way tie between Cal, Colorado, ASU and Stanford, all at 10-8. ASU’s 4-2 record vs. the other three gives it the No. 3 seed. Cal gets the No. 4 seed based on its 2-1 record vs. Colorado and Stanford.

– Cal beats Colorado, Oregon State beats Arizona State, Stanford beats Utah and Oregon beats Arizona. That creates a five-way tie between Cal, Colorado, ASU, Stanford and Oregon. ASU earns the No. 3 seed based on its 5-3 record vs. the other four. Cal is the No. 4 seed because of its 3-1 record vs. Colorado, Oregon and Stanford.

– Cal beats Colorado, Oregon State beats Arizona State, Utah bears Stanfod and Oregon beats Arizona. (Same as above, but Utah beats Stanford). Again, ASU gets the No. 3 seed based on its 5-3 record vs. the other four. Cal is 2-1 vs. Colorado, Oregon and Utah and gets the No. 4 seed.

Please pass the Advil.

Jeff Faraudo

  • Mitch

    Thank you for your sacrifice, Jeff. Once again, you’ve given us hope. Go Bears, beat the Buffs!

  • Jeff M

    I think you’re over complicating it a bit.

    To get the #4 Cal must beat Colorado and Furd must beat Utah. If Furd loses to Utah then Oregon has to beat Arizona.

    I don’t think ASU-OSU factors in at all

  • Rollonubears

    if we beat colorado and do end up a 4 seed, we’ll probably have to play arizona again at full strength. i don’t think getting drubbed by them again would get us into the tournament. i kind of hope we beat colorado but slip to 5 or 6, so we get two winnable games to prove ourselves. asking a team that has gotten trounced repeatedly, to win 3 in a row (colorado plus 2 against hungry teams) is a very tall order, but if we can actually do it, we definitely deserve to make the tourney.

  • 1brsfan

    Let’s just beat CU and let the chips fall where they may.

  • GoBears49

    I think you’ve made a very good point, though I had mentioned in an earlier post we needed to have at least one easy game in the tourney. Unfortunately for me, I now in Walla Walla WA and it will be tough for me to find a place that will show the game.

  • 1brsfan

    Oregon is about to win so as long as we win we have 4th place, right?

  • 1brsfan

    If we win who gets the 5 seed?