Handicapping the Grammy race is tough work, since there are no reliable indicators as to voting trends. It’s one of the things that separate the music critics from the film scribes, who face a much easier challenge in forecasting the Oscars.
That said, here are my best guesses for the four main Grammy categories. Accompanying my picks _ as per usual _ are my dog Autumn’s choices (which are made through a very scientific, utterly random, process involving Pupperoni dog treats). I’ve also asked my fellow music scribe, the Mercury News’ Shay Quillen, to add his picks. We’ll see who gets the most right come Grammy night.
Record Of The Year
“Irreplaceable,’’ Beyonce
“The Pretender,’’ Foo Fighters
“Umbrella,’’ Rihanna Featuring Jay-Z
“What Goes Around…Comes Around,’’ Justin Timberlake
“Rehab,’’ Amy Winehouse
Jim’s comment: Right from the start, one has to decide whether Grammy voters are going to judge Winehouse on her musical merit alone or factor in all her colorful shenanigans. I’m predicting the latter and that Winehouse doesn’t have a big night. “Rehab’’ is clearly the best song in the bunch, but Beyonce isn’t likely to show up drunk.
Jim’s pick: “Irreplaceable’’
Shay’s pick: “What Goes Around”
Autumn’s pick: “Umbrella’’
Album Of The Year
“Echoes, Silence, Patience and Grace,’’ Foo Fighters
“These Days,’’ Vince Gill
“River: The Joni Letters,’’ Herbie Hancock
“Graduation,’’ Kanye West
“Back To Black,’’ Amy Winehouse
Jim’s comment: There’s no slam dunk in the bunch _ not even a layup, actually. Vince Gill is incredibly popular in the industry, but did voters actually listen to the 4-CD, 43-song “These Days?’’ I think that voters will instead capitalize on the rare chance to award a jazz artist the big trophy and go with Hancock here. Plus, all-star efforts, like “River,’’ have a proven track record in recent Grammy shows.
Jim’s pick: “River: The Joni Letters’’
Shay’s pick: “River: The Joni Letters”
Autumn’s pick: “Graduation’’
Song Of The Year
(Given to songwriter, though artist that performed track is listed below.)
“Before He Cheats,’’ Carrie Underwood
“Hey There Delilah,’’ Plain White T’s
“Like a Star,’’ Corinne Bailey Rae
“Rehab,’’ Amy Winehouse
“Umbrella,’’ Rihanna Featuring Jay-Z
Jim’s comment: Whether or not voters agree, “Rehab’’ was definitely the song of the year. It was the rallying cry for jetsetters and trust-fund babies everywhere. Yet, Winehouse spent too much of 2007 looking like she needed to go to “Rehab.’’ Thus, Grammy voters will probably go with more family-friendly song _ like one about cheating and vandalism.
Jim’s pick: “Before He Cheats’’
Shay’s pick: “Hey There Delilah”
Autumn’s pick: “Rehab’’
Best New Artist
Feist
Ledisi
Paramore
Taylor Swift
Amy Winehouse
Jim’s comment: It would be nice to see the hometown gal, Oakland’s Ledisi, take home the prize, but I really don’t think that’s going to happen. Since the voters probably won’t endorse Winehouse _ the real Best New Artist _ it appears to be a two-horse race between Feist and Taylor Swift. Could go either way, but I think country music will edge indie-rock by a nose.
Jim’s pick: Taylor Swift
Shay’s pick: Feist
Autumn’s pick: Amy Winehouse
