Stop me when I lose you.

Serra needs Carlmont to beat Burlingame. Terra Nova needs Burlingame to beat Carlmont. Burlingame needs to beat Carlmont. And Carlmont doesn’t really have much to play for.

Welcome to the wild final week of the regular season in boys soccer. The Central Coast Section postseason seeding meeting is set for Saturday, and a handful of County programs have absolutely no idea whether they are playoff-bound.

Three programs, to be exact. Burlingame, Serra and Terra Nova. Two of the three (Burlingame and Serra) control their CCS fate, but must notch league-tournament upsets to garner automatic bids. Terra Nova? No control whatsoever.

But much will be decided by late-afternoon on Wednesday, at the culmination of the Peninsula Athletic League Bay Division’s CCS play-in tournament. With the assist of some heavy-duty numbers-crunching from Serra mathematics teacher (and soccer coach) Jeff Panos, here’s the breakdown:

(NOTE: CCS power points are based on a team’s final 18 results. League tournaments — PAL Bay, WCAL, etc. — DO NOT count toward those points.)

Burlingame can likely only get into CCS by beating Carlmont. The Panthers would earn the PAL Bay’s third automatic postseason berth by winning the play-in tournament. But if they don’t do that, they will almost certainly find themselves with too few power points to earn an at-large bid.

“I’m kind of feeling we’re too close in points to be at-large for sure,” Burlingame coach Fred Cesano said before the play-in began. “I’m worried. I feel like we need to win the tournament.”

Terra Nova can only gain consideration for a CCS berth if Burlingame makes the postseason field. A CCS bylaw prevents a team from leapfrogging another side from its own league, irrespective of the two teams’ power points. Translation: because Terra Nova finished fifth in the Bay and Burlingame fourth, Terra Nova can’t get in UNLESS Burlingame already has.

This rule hurts Terra Nova big-time. In terms of power points alone, the Tigers should fall comfortably in front of both Serra and Burlingame (to name two local teams in contention). But none of that matters if Burlingame doesn’t get in.

“It’s not in our hands,” said Terra Nova coach Ernie Brockmeyer, adding that his team became a big Burlingame fan the minute it lost 2-0 to the Panthers in Monday’s play-in opener. “Our hope is they take it all.”

Meanwhile, Panos abruptly reversed course on Tuesday in regards to whether he feels Serra has enough power points to earn an at-large bid if the Padres don’t beat Bellarmine in Thursday’s WCAL tournament championship game.

“If Burlingame wins, I think we’re out,” said the Padres coach, who previously stated he thought a regular-season ending win over Sacred Heart Cathedral had lifted Serra out of “bubble” status.

His logic? It’s two-fold.

1. With only eight TOTAL at-large berths available (for Division I and II), “bubble” teams can’t afford late-season upsets that give lesser teams (those with fewer power points) automatic CCS slots. If Burlingame takes an automatic bid, Carlmont will surely earn an at-large berth. (The Scots appear to have more power points than any PAL Bay team and Serra). A Burlingame win also would resurrect Terra Nova’s at-large prospects. And if both Carlmont AND Terra Nova swipe up at-large berths, Serra would begin to find itself on the short end of the numbers’ game.

2. Panos also listed Gunn and Palo Alto as teams that have been charging hard and appear to have vaulted Serra in the power-points department. Neither is a league champion, meaning they would stand to take an at-large berth “away” from the Padres and others.

And then we come to Carlmont. The Scots appear to be in the enviable position that they have already accumulated enough power points to earn a CCS bid. Translation: they do not have to beat Burlingame to make the playoffs.

Asked whether his team “needed” to win on Wednesday, Carlmont coach Jason Selli replied: “We want to win.”

In a 4-0 win over Menlo-Atherton on Monday, a result that likely extinguised M-A’s CCS hopes, Selli gave ample playing time to some second-stringers. Afterwards, he said he was confident his team would qualify for the postseason via an at-large bid if necessary, and added that he wouldn’t risk injuries in an anticipated physical matchup with Burlingame.

So, barring Serra upsetting nationally-ranked Bellarmine on Thursday, three teams’ CCS fates may directly hinge on the Burlingame vs. Carlmont showdown … and Carlmont isn’t one of them! Should be fascinating stuff.