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Playoffs scenarios for Raiders

By Steve Corkran
Monday, December 26th, 2011 at 11:04 am in Oakland Raiders.

Here are the playoffs scenarios for the Raiders as they prepare for their regular-season finale against the San Diego Chargers.
In short, for the Raiders to win the AFC West, they need to win or tie the Chargers on Sunday AND have the Denver Broncos lose to the Kansas City Chiefs.
If that doesn’t happen, the Raiders still can earn the second wild-card berth.
For that to take place, the Raiders need to win, the Cincinnati Bengals have to lose to the Baltimore Ravens AND there can’t be a three-way tie between the Bengals, Raiders and Tennessee Titans. The Raiders win every other tiebreaker, even a four-way tie that includes the Bengals, Titans and New York Jets.

DENVER BRONCOS

Denver clinches AFC West Division:

1) DEN win

2) DEN tie + OAK loss or tie

3) OAK loss

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Oakland clinches AFC West Division:

1) OAK win + DEN loss or tie

2) OAK tie + DEN loss

Oakland clinches a wild card spot:

1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincinnati clinches a wild card spot:

1) CIN win or tie

2) NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie

3) NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

NEW YORK JETS

NY Jets clinch a wild card spot:

1) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie

2) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

TENNESSEE TITANS

Tennessee clinches a wild card spot:

1) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie

2) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie

3) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

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  • Method To My Madness

    Vegas…..the negativity about KC has to stop…..ur killin us

  • inonewordraider

    You really have to wonder how much they would help other than throwing off the rhythm of the offense. With a full week of practice, sure, but if they are not practicing til late in the week, they would most likely be a detriment.

    ______________________________________
    TJ practiced all last week hope he didn’t have a setback but just the fact that he’ll give Bush a breather is huge. Ford is a helluva decoy at worst. Tell u what Mcclain and Seymour looked healthier than they’ve looked Moore is back Oline is back playing well. We might be getting healthy at the right time. Cp has to learn to take a sack. Do we get that illusive complete game Sunday?

  • inonewordraider

    Method To My Madness Says:
    December 26th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
    Vegas…..the negativity about KC has to stop…..ur killin us

    __________________
    hey method thompson looked less like Reggie Miller and more like Cheryl Miller! He’s a good prospect but tell you what your cuz is Dixon on Mizzou right? kid plays relentless D, I like that

  • DonManoukiansNeighbor

    Cp has to learn to take a sack.
    ————————————–
    Exactly!!! Most his mistakes come when he tries to make somthing happen when he thinks he is going to get sacked.

  • tuckrulefool

    Assuming 1pt spread = 2.5% “enhanced likelihood” of a win for the favorite…up to a max 90% likelihood for victory (16pt favorite)

    if so this is how %’s shake out…

    16pt (or more) fav—> 90% likelihood of victory
    10pt fav—> 75% likelihood of victory
    5pt fav= 62.5% likelihood of victory
    even/0 pt spread—> 50% likelihood of victory

    with that….here are the likelihoods for the raiders post season chances…

    Oakland as Div winner:
    1. 0ak (-3) beats SD (57.5%)
    2. den (-3) loses to KC (42.5%)
    3. 57.5%x42.5% =

    24.44%

    Oak as WC6:
    1. Oak beats SD (57.5%)
    2. cinn loses to Balt (-2.5) (56.25%)
    3. Jets win @ Mia(-1) OR Tenn(-2.5) loses @ Texans (i.e. 3/4 possible outcomes ‘ok’ so 75% chance of this happening)
    4. 57.5% x 56.25% x 70.47% (i.e. 47.5%x43.75% + 47.5% x56.25% + 52.5%x43.75%) =

    22.79%

    PS “Updated odds” at 4pm kickoff (since all wild card game ‘factors’ are 1pm games)

    Oak as Div Winner:
    24.44% (unchanged)

    Oak as WC6:
    1. 57.5% (ie 1pm game results 2-4 “work out” for oak)
    or
    2. 0% (ie 1pm game results 2-4 do not “work out” for oak)

  • Method To My Madness

    vegas I totally disagree with that. Texans at home in first playoff game ain’t a gift. Id love to play Big Ben with that bum ankle and Pouncey hurt too!

  • Method To My Madness

    I was at W’s game…no one shot well from outside….Klay a good player and we will smoke the phag Lakers with ease. W’s are fine and Klay is damn good. Anyone with bball iq knows that…….of course my cousin is relentless….who is he related to? Mizzou good and my cuz avg 13 pts a game

  • J Hill

    Dubs are terrible.

    Will be fighting for the 1st pick in the draft.

  • Method To My Madness

    Brb

  • tuckrulefool

    oops minor error…ignore 1st post…use %s here…

    ====
    assuming 1pt spread = 2.5% enhcanced likelihood of a win for the favortite…up to a max 90% likelhood for vicory (16pt favorite)

    i’d so this is how %’s shake out…

    16pt (or more) fav—> 90% likelihood of victory
    10pt fav—> 75% likelihood of victory
    5pt fav= 62.5% likelihood of victory
    even/0 pt spread—> 50% likelihood of victory

    with that….here are the updated likelihoods….(old ones were 25% for div, 18.75% for WC6…43.75% total)

    Oakland as Div winner:
    1. 0ak (-3) beats SD (57.5%)
    2. den (-3) loses to KC (42.5%)
    3. 57.5%x42.5%=

    24.44%

    Oak as WC6:
    1. Oak beats SD (57.5%)
    2. cinn loses to Balt (-2.5) (56.25%)
    3. Jets win @ Mia(-1) OR Tenn(-2.5) loses @ Texans. Here there are 3/4 ‘good’ outcomes for oak asst with this necessary condition…probability wise that equates to —> 70.47% …or…. 47.5%x43.75% + 47.5% x56.25% + 52.5%x43.75%
    4. 57.5% x 56.25% x 70.47% =

    22.79%

    PS ‘Updated odds’ at 4pm kickoff (since all wild card ‘factors’ are 1pm contests)

    Oak as Div Winner:
    24.44% (unchanged)

    Oak as WC6:
    1. 57.5% (ie 1pm game results 2-4 “work out” for oak)
    or
    2. 0% (ie 1pm game results 2-4 do not “work out” for oak)

  • http://www.tedhendricks.com/Ted_vs_Montana.jpg BigTed707

    Happy Holidays Nation!

    The Raiders are setting records this season!

  • inonewordraider

    I was at W’s game
    _________________
    didn’t Hue get the kiss cam on him on not kiss the lady he was with? also thought i saw Mcclain in the house…

  • Method To My Madness

    How are warriors terrible? Jhill u just talking bs again….we lost to the best LA team with two excellent guards who understand the game well….wait til clips plays lakers lmao….massacre

  • Method To My Madness

    Yeah McClain was there

  • Method To My Madness

    Warriors are far ahead of what they were last year…..and got a deeper bench…they will make playoffs

  • raidertbone

    As much as I’d like to see the Silver and Black in the playoffs, everyone needs to just shut up about odds and chances of getting in. Raiders blew leads against both Buffalo and Detroit late, which cost us a chance to already be in the driver’s seat. We just need to beat S.D., hope that K.C. whips up on Tebow and let the chips fall where they may. Either way, it’s a better year than we’ve seen in a long while!!

  • Method To My Madness

    Ok I’m jettin…be back to ace jhill…..again

  • SaintKaufman

    tuckrulefool crazy! You’re gonna have a long week my friend.

  • http://www.tedhendricks.com/Ted_vs_Montana.jpg BigTed707

    Any chance Huff and DMAC practice this week?

  • http://www.tedhendricks.com/Ted_vs_Montana.jpg BigTed707

    Raiders need to upgrade at DT and CB – and add overall depth to the defensive roster.

    Fill a few holes in the off-season, and this could be an elite team next year!

  • inonewordraider

    Any chance Huff and DMAC practice this week?

    _______________________________________
    Cork says DMAC, Ford and Huff will play vs san diego highly doubt that but Huff hasn’t played well hurt

  • http://www.tedhendricks.com/Ted_vs_Montana.jpg BigTed707

    Word up to thec07 – and I’m Out!

    Raider!

  • Seymour Bush

    Hey Jamista Clown, looks like your boy Gingrich has been exposed as a lying thieving POS with no hope. At least I can see why you supported him. He’s just like you.

  • Seymour Bush

    Method To My Madness Says:
    December 26th, 2011 at 12:17 pm

    I was at W’s game…no one shot well from outside….
    ====================================

    Seems the Dub’s never shoot well from the outside. And then what happens when they go cold? They start chucking it from even further downtown. Then fans wonder why they don’t ever win.

  • YoungAmerican

    @VittorioTafur Vittorio Tafur

    #Raiders LB Aaron Curry credits long snapper Jon Condo for coming up with 5-on-2 right-side push design on 2 field goal blocks in Sunday win

  • Seymour Bush

    # YoungAmerican Says:
    December 26th, 2011 at 12:41 pm

    @VittorioTafur Vittorio Tafur

    #Raiders LB Aaron Curry credits long snapper Jon Condo for coming up with 5-on-2 right-side push design on 2 field goal blocks in Sunday win
    ==========================================

    Well it certainly wasn’t Hue Jackson who thought of it.

  • inonewordraider

    VittorioTafur Vittorio Tafur
    Huff says he will play Sunday even if hamstring is still bothering him. “I am not going to miss this one” #Raiders

  • Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

    Eddie Mush, don’t be such a sore loser.

    Who do you like tonight?

    Go Raiders!

  • inonewordraider

    Jerrymcd Jerry McDonald
    Of 3 teams that gave up 400 and made postseason, two had Kurt Warner at QB (St. Louis, Arizona) and the other (Seattle) went 7-9.
    2 hours ago

  • inonewordraider

    CorkOnTheNFL Steve Corkran
    WR Jacoby Ford says he and RB Darren McFadden will test out sore feet later today. Not sure if he will be able to play Sunday.

  • inonewordraider

    Favorites Following Followers Lists
    »
    CorkOnTheNFL Steve Corkran
    RB Taiwan Jones (hamstring) and FS Michael Huff (hamstring) said they intend to play Sunday. In all-hands-on-deck, big-game mode.

  • armond

    58.J Hill Says:
    December 26th, 2011 at 12:18 pm
    Dubs are terrible.

    Will be fighting for the 1st pick in the draft.

    ——————————————————
    man shut that stupid bullsh!t up. we didnt make outside shots all game. we shoot much better than that. that was the difference in the game. always get some snobby azz laker fans to talk about the dubs like yall know what the fugg u talkin bout. btw, wassup jhizzy!!!

  • huronraider

    I would love to win the division thus knocking Teblow and Donkeys out of the playoffs and playing the banged up Steelers at home. Ben is immobile now and won’t improve much by game time. They would have to travel and we get our home sell out crowd behind us. Beating the defending AFC champs then on to Super Bowl to play GB with a full team and see how well they stop the run with McFadden back. Reminds me of 83 Super Bowl year when we lost bad to Redskins then killed them in Super Bowl. I hate saying this but-go chefs.

  • Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

    If McFadden doesn’t attempt to play this Sunday he is a Pu$$y. Even if it is just to use him as a decoy he needs to suit up. I also think we should bring back Tim Brown and Howie Long. You know Timmy can still run routes and Howie can still rush the “passa” in third downs packages.

    ALL HANDS ON DECK!

    Just Win Baby.

  • armond

    denver loses their 3rd straight to the chefs and we will beat the chargless. just like theco7 says, FUKK RIVERS!!

  • SR Raider

    Just hoping the Raiders can lock up a winning season to officially get this thing turned around.

  • RAIDERMAN99

    I’m looking at the scenarios for getting into the dance and I don’t feel good about any of them.

    Don’t see the Mules losing to the Chefs. Could happen, but I don’t like the chances of a road team with nothing to play against a motivated Denver squad in this one.

    Wild card ? Despite Baltimore sputtering, they’ve got plenty to play for and should have enough to take down the Bungles in Cincy. Texans have no real motivation to take down the Titans, but still might do so just bcz it’s important for them to demonstrate an ability to score points before the playoffs begin.

    Don’t see the Jets beating the Fins. Think they’re done after the loss to the Giants, and Miami is still playing hard.

    Of course, this is the NFL and anything can happen, a lot of these games are toss ups.

    That being said, even though I’m not optimistic about our chances – now that the various scenarios are known and understood – NOT A SECOND MORE SHOULD BE SPENT ON THE ‘WHAT IF’S’ – and every thought and effort should be focused directly on obliterating the Chargers.

    None of this matters unless we close with a victory.

    Time to concentrate on the task at hand.

  • John David Booty

    Heard that Condo jersey was a major seller this Christmas.

  • huronraider

    Just beat the Chargers. End of story. The rest will take care of itself

  • John David Booty

    RAIDERMAN99 Says:
    December 26th, 2011 at 1:30 pm

    I’m looking at the scenarios for getting into the dance and I don’t feel good about any of them.

    Don’t see the Mules losing to the Chefs. Could happen, but I don’t like the chances of a road team with nothing to play against a motivated Denver squad in this one.

    Wild card ? Despite Baltimore sputtering, they’ve got plenty to play for and should have enough to take down the Bungles in Cincy. Texans have no real motivation to take down the Titans, but still might do so just bcz it’s important for them to demonstrate an ability to score points before the playoffs begin.

    Don’t see the Jets beating the Fins. Think they’re done after the loss to the Giants, and Miami is still playing hard.

    Of course, this is the NFL and anything can happen, a lot of these games are toss ups.

    That being said, even though I’m not optimistic about our chances – now that the various scenarios are known and understood – NOT A SECOND MORE SHOULD BE SPENT ON THE ‘WHAT IF’S’ – and every thought and effort should be focused directly on obliterating the Chargers.

    None of this matters unless we close with a victory.

    Time to concentrate on the task at hand.
    _________________________________________________
    Denver got smoked by the Bills. Denvers strong suit is supposed to be the run game, and Buffalo shut em down, as horrible as their run d is. KC has a very good run d, and they are not playing for “nothing”, they already stated they are playing to keep Crennels job. More importantly, Orton DEFINITELY isnt viewing this game as “nothing to play for”.

  • Forrest Hump

    Huronraider Says:
    December 26th, 2011 at 1:33 pm
    Just beat the Chargers. End of story. The rest will take care of itself
    *************

    Huronraider……as in Huron, South Dakota?

  • John David Booty

    San Diego is already toast. This will finaly be the game where you get to somewhat see the potential of this Oakland Raiders team. This will be the Raiders most complete game of the season.

  • inonewordraider

    “The man told me, ‘Hue, we will win it in the end’ and I believe that,”

  • huronraider

    Texans really need to win to go into playoffs with some momentum after 2 straight losses. They will play hard. Kansas Shi..y will play hard for Orton and Crennell. Fat Rex will have his team ready since they still have a chance to get in the playoffs

  • huronraider

    Yes

  • Forrest Hump

    Huronraider Says:
    December 26th, 2011 at 1:43 pm
    Yes
    *******************

    Mitchell SD here buddy. I have a sneaking suspicion that I know you. Lol

  • huronraider

    Jeff Houge

  • RAIDERMAN99

    CP is getting credit for the two long passes which resulted in the Moore TD and the DHB reception in OT.

    Yes, they were good tosses. Nice, accurate, in-stride, easy to catch rainbows.

    But how about the pass protection on those plays ?

    OUTSTANDING.

    The play action on the DHB bomb left the Chefs flat footed. Absolutely no push from them. Palmer had all day to throw, a perfect pocket, and there wasn’t a defender remotely near him even after taking a good while to allow DHB to toast his man.

    The protection on the Moore TD was almost as good.

    Very impressive stuff and reminiscent of the Stabler days, when the play action devastated opposing defenses and the long gain made ‘em pay.

    Al was smiling down on those two. Deep strike, RAIDER football.

    SMASH THE BOLTS.

  • inonewordraider

    “The Jets have a big mouth, big belly coach that talks too much.”

  • huronraider

    South Dakota Raiders unite cheer for Kansas Chitty to beat the Donkeys