First-time coaches have very little success
By Ira Miller
Monday, February 18th, 2008 at 6:00 am in Uncategorized.
It seems rather odd that all four teams which hired coaches this off-season took a flyer on first-timers. It’s odd because the NFL trend in recent years has been that coaches with experience have a higher success rate than first-timers.
Take last year, for example. Five of the seven hires were first-time head coaches. Only one of the five, Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin, made the playoffs. Two of them, Cam Cameron and Bobby Petrino, already are gone, and a third, Lane Kiffin, is hanging by a thread.
The two “recycled” coaches hired a year ago, however, Wade Phillips and Norv Turner, both took their teams to division titles.
And the recent Super Bowl matched a pair of recycled coaches; in fact, it was just the second Super Bowl that paired coaches who had been fired from a previous job.
Clearly, there is something to be said for experience.
The NFL has become a much tougher place for new coaches in recent years. The coaching job is more difficult than ever, with free agency and a salary cap to consider in making up the roster, with replay challenges added to the game-day chores a coach must consider, with the money so big that it can he hard to keep the players’ attention.
It’s probably not a coincidence, therefore, that 9 of the last 11 Super Bowls have been won by coaches who were on their second NFL team – Bill Belichick (3), Mike Shanahan (2), Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden, Tom Coughlin and Dick Vermeil. In 31 Super Bowls prior to the 1997 season, only two coaches, Weeb Ewbank and Don Shula, had won with their second team.
Not counting the most recent four hires, there have been 56 first-time head coaches hired since 1995. Only one of them, Baltimore’s Brian Billick in the 2000 season, won the Super Bowl.
Yet, suddenly, owners believe it is chic to hire first-time coaches and ignore experience. Even Washington’s Dan Snyder, known for his fascination with big names, went this route with the hiring of Jim Zorn, who hadn’t even been a coordinator on Mike Holmgren’s Seattle staff and wasn’t considered a head-coaching candidate by any other team. Zorn is Washington’s sixth coach since Snyder took over the franchise in 1999.
Baltimore (John Harbaugh), Atlanta (Mike Smith) and Miami (Tony Sparano) went the same, first-timer route. Indianapolis also named a first-timer, Jim Caldwell, as coach-in-waiting behind Tony Dungy. Seattle, which also went the unusual, coach-in-waiting route, chose Jim Mora, who was fired after three years in Atlanta, to succeed Mike Holmgren in 2009.
There is, of course, no sure-fire way to predict coaching success. It used to be, in fact, that many coaches who were successful with their first team – Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells particularly come to mind – failed to repeat that success in future jobs. But the changing landscape seems to put a premium on experience, and the recent history of Super Bowl winners seems to back that up.
I hope you all have enjoyed these posts. This will be the last one for the 2007 season, which I know will thoroughly disappoint all those Raiders Kool-Aid drinkers. Hope to be back with you in the fall.
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February 18th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Ira, I read you were banned from voting in this years HOF. What happened?
Are you going to be writing anywhere else for the Draft and the Combine?
The Skinny during the offseason?
Enjoy your golf Ira!
February 18th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
John,
Thanks for asking. My weekly column at AOL.com will continue throughout the off-season, but at the moment I have no regular slot anywhere.
As for the Hall of Fame voting, I was suspended for a year, which I believe was part of the backlash over the controversial discussion concerning former commissioner Paul Tagliabue a year ago. It has been indicated to me that the suspension will be lifted shortly, but I have not yet decided whether I will return to the committee.
February 19th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Ira!!
Don’t be nuts, you have got to continue with you HOF duties.
I didn’t like the way Tag’s ran the NFL anyhooo, Tag’s can pound sand.
February 19th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Ira,
How does Paul Tagliabue rate a mention as a HOF candidate ? Because league
revenues grew proportionally in a bull market for t.v. programming ? Maybe if
he had grown the business in a bear market, sure. And on his watch, the league
lost 2 teams from the L.A. market and failed to address the issue. Maybe not all
his fault, but life is not fair. A “NO” vote for Tagliabue for HOF is a no brainer.
Hope your back for opening day. Your perspective on the NFL is essential reading
for sports fans throughout Northern Calif.
February 20th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Ira,
I hope you’re back here next year. You added clarity to the Bay Area football situation when many writers were just adding fuel to the smokey fires. Next year promises to be as crazy as this season. The York/Nolan/Martz and Davis/Kiffin situations cry out for your superior perspective. Hope to be reading you somewhere around here next season, thanks.
February 22nd, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Ira:
Where do we find your AOL blog?
Bill Holmes
February 23rd, 2008 at 9:06 am
Ira-
It’s not like Wade, Norv took over awful teams. Dallas and San Diego were playoff teams the year prior.
Tomlin took over a team that was only 1 year removed from a Super Bowl title.
February 24th, 2008 at 5:24 am
To those who have asked. My AOL column can be found at this link (I am usually listed with the columnists at the right side and down the page):
http://sports.aol.com/?ncid=AOLSPR00110000000005
February 25th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Ira,
I don’t blame you for criticizing Paul Tagliabue.
In my opinion, Paul Tagliabue is the reason the NFL is this state (players and teams both), he was the most incompetent commissioner in my life time. I can tell you now he played favorites with teams, apparently Dallas Cowboys was his favorite team, he did let Jerry Jones get away with Nike deal.
NY Giants was his second favorite and so on.
Look around you and see the quality of NFL teams barely over 500 teams are making playoffs (Seattle is a good example). He has brought the league to this status, good to new commissioner, the mess he left will take years to bring ‘quality’ back to the NFL
Regards,
Dan
February 28th, 2008 at 5:15 am
Hi Ira…Ken from our Lakeland days here…I thought I had lost you and came across this site. All you email started bouncing a while back. Please drop me a line at the address above so I can get you back in the fold and bring you up to date with our class…and who we’ve recently lost. Since this is personal, and not NFL related…hope it doesn’t get posted. I’ll sy something f’ball related jsut to make it legal…I’m predicting 10-6 for MY Redskins next season…you heard it here first…ken herst
March 11th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
This is the first time I have written you, but I have respected you take on the NFL for over 20 years. You are the best football writer I have ever read. I am 49 years old and have followed Dallas since 1966. I feel I know this game as well as anyone can from the outside. Fans in my category are few and far between, and believe me, we need you. Sensible football conversation is hard to find. Your takes provide a starting point for enjoyable and knowledgeable football talk. Now that I have joined the high-tech world, I hope to have more contact with you in future weeks and months. I would rather sit down and speak with you about NFL doings than anyone around today. Thanks for all your effort. It’s appreciated.
March 28th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Ira, I check the CC Times website a couple of times weekly in hopes of picking up on your ruminations. Then I see other stuff by you on NFL.com. Is there any one place, or just other sites where an avid follower of NFL stuff may access your writings.
Ensign Pulver