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Holy moly II: Independent poll shows McNerney leading Pombo

By Lisa Vorderbrueggen
Monday, October 30th, 2006 at 6:03 pm in congressional district 11, election 2006.

A new poll shows congressional District 11 Democratic challenger Jerry McNerney beating incumbent Republican Richard Pombo by 2 percentage points: 48 to 46 percent.

The poll was conducted by a Majority Watch, a project of RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics, and does not appear at first blush to be connected to either campaign.

Read the poll here.

The poll was conducted Oct. 24-26 with 983 likely voters and margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent points.

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  • John

    Lisa:

    What do you make of this? Don’t want to read too much into one poll. The McNerney camp has been claiming they’re ahead for some time. These numbers seem to validate that. Not aware that this outfit hires out to either side.

    Compared to the 46%R to 39%D district registration, the sample appears to be light on Dem voters and over for Independents. Even still, the numbers show independents breaking for McNerney 55% to 38%. There is a slight trend to McNerney with women voters.
    Almost 1 in 5 Republicans are voting for McNerney.

    Is this the reason why Laura Bush is coming out on Friday perhaps to try to rally independents and women back to Pombo? Can’t imagine team Pombo is greeting this with anything other than shrieks and howls, but these numbers look devastating to someone who was a shoe in a year ago.

    With only 6% left undecided/other, there’s not much left out there to woo. Who’s going to be able to close the deal on this one?

  • paul

    This poll proves 1. God’s existence and 2. His sense of humor with the liberals.
    They will thank Him for the poll but, like the last three elections, this Republican like all others that should deserve to be replaced, will win and then govern like he thinks he was given a mandate. Further proof that God not only is a Republican but hates anyone that doesn’t vote for the party of his son Ronald R.