Presidential candidate and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is coming back to the Bay Area in mid-November, where he will attend fund-raisers at, among other places, the home of former guberatorial candidate Steve Westley.
Obama will appear at Westly’s Atherton home on the evening of Nov. 14. Just before noon on the same day, he will appear at a luncheon at the home of Pam Hamamoto in Tiburon. Click here to download the Tiburon invitation.
The cost to attend is $2,300 a person, the federal maximum contribution allowed.
Obama supporter, attorney and Piedmont resident Jeff Bleich sent out an e-mail early this morning advising folks on his contact list about the two events. Bleich told me last week that Obama will likely appear in the East Bay, too.
In his email, Bleich also offered an interesting analysis of the status of Obama’s campaign given the extensive discussion about the “inevitability” factor of his chief Democratic opponent, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.
In part, here’s what Bleich wrote:
Where we are: First, to put this in perspective, Barack’s campaign has defied every gloomy prediction, and it has forced the Clinton campaign to adopt a very dangerous strategy. Being the national front-runner in November before the primary is the worst place for a candidate to be: ask any candidate from Howard Dean in 2003 to Gary Hart in 1987. The reason that the Clinton campaign is proclaiming inevitability is not because she wants to set such high expectations, but because Barack’s surprising success has forced her to do that. Her campaign hopes that this will discourage the Obama faithful and slow down the Obama juggernaut. To appreciate this, you have to remember where we were when Barack decided to run for President 9 months ago. At that time, the Clinton campaign and the pundits thought he could never mount a serious challenge to her because he didn’t have any donor lists, he didn’t have any organization in Iowa, he didn’t have any endorsers, and he had little name recognition or campaign experience compared to at least three candidates who all had been in presidential campaigns before. It was impossible, most insiders assumed, for him to build in one year the kind of organization that the Clintons had developed over two decades. So here are the facts.
Donors and Donations: Despite the fact that the Clintons have established the most powerful and successful fundraising machine in the past two decades, Barack has actually outraised Hillary Clinton by every measure and has more contributors than any candidate in political history. Over 350,000 contributors have given over one-half million donations—more than Hillary Clinton and John Edwards combined. But it is more than that. If you take away the $10 million that Sen. Clinton gave herself from her Senate campaign and the millions of dollars she has accepted from special interests and PACs (which Barack has refused), she’s not even close.
Organization: Barack has put together the best organization in Iowa . . . ever. This is not a matter of opinion. He now has more offices in more precincts in Iowa than any other candidate. According to Iowa’s Attorney General, Tom Miller, the Obama team is the best organized campaign Iowa has ever seen — drawing the most talented people in the State. While John Edwards’ support has been falling, and Hillary Clinton’s has plateaued, Barack’s support has steadily been rising as Iowans get to know and meet him. Although the polls bounce around and will continue to do so until election night — Barack, despite being the newcomer, was in first place in Iowa in the most recent Newsweek poll, and he is poised to puncture any claim that Hillary is inevitable.
Endorsements: Everyone expected that Sen. Clinton would have locked up the endorsement of virtually every leading Democrat in the Country by now, since most of them owe their political careers to Bill Clinton. Barack has not only gone toe-to-toe with the Clintons for key endorsements, but he has won key endorsements from members of Clinton’s own cabinet on the most important issues in this campaign. For example, his chief foreign policy adviser is Bill Clinton’s former National Security Adviser and nominee for Secretary of State, Tony Lake. His chief energy adviser is Bill Clinton’s Secretary of the Energy, Frederico Pena. Members of the joint chiefs of staff, cabinet officials, members of Congress, Governors, and opinion leaders from Ted Sorenson to Oprah Winfrey will all be endorsing Barack in the coming weeks.
National Recognition: Finally, given that he is running against three other candidates who have participated in Presidential elections before (Clinton, Edwards, Biden), it is nothing short of miraculous that Barack is running second in national polls. Hillary Clinton will stay at least 20 points ahead in national polls until the early primaries because those polls generally do not reflect anything other than name recognition (which is why Jerry Brown led the polls in November 1991 or Howard Dean led the polls in November 2003). In fact, a December 2003 CBS-New York Times poll, taken just a month before the Iowa caucus, proclaimed that “Howard Dean has pulled away from the field in the Democratic Presidential nomination race” with 23% as compared to Kerry’s 5%. The poll showed Kerry in sixth place, behind Dean, Wesley Clark, Lieberman, Gephardt and Al Sharpton!. And that is true in every election. According to a November 1991 Los Angeles Times poll, Bill Clinton was in 3rd place with less than half the support of the then-frontrunner, Jerry Brown. A January 1988 New York Times/CBS Poll showed Michael Dukakis in fourth place with 6 percent. An August 1979 poll showed President Carter trailing Senator Ted Kennedy by 36 points. National polls really don’t matter at this stage. The only reliable thing they tell you is that Barack is already far better known than anyone imagined he’d be at this stage, just 9 months ago.
What We Need To Do To Win: The short answer for how we translate all of this into victory can be summed up in four words: “don’t worry, just work.” The Clinton campaign’s goal is to make Obama supporters worry, to hold back, and to create a self-fulfilling prophesy that support for Barack has slackened. They are very smart political tacticians, and they know that the thing we have to fear most is fear itself. So they are spreading it. Simply by staying committed, staying positive, and working for the campaign, you will make us win. There are three specific things you can do.
Call Friends in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada: The key to victory is organizational strength in the early states, especially Iowa. If you have friends or family there, make sure you call or email them and encourage them to attend the caucus and/or vote. The key to our success has always been simple: As the underdog in the race, we need to perform well enough in the “First Four” contests—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina—to create the momentum necessary to narrow the field and position Barack for victories on February 5th, when over 20 states will vote at once.
Respond To The Naysayers: This campaign exists because so many people recognized an historic opportunity to change fundamentally the politics that is crippling our progress. So when people say the timing’s too early for Barack, we need to tell them there’s no better time — that Kennedy and Lincoln and Bill Clinton himself were all told the same thing. When others say the race is over and Hillary will win, remind them that this wouldn’t be the first time that a Washington politician declared “Mission Accomplished” a little too early. People with more life experience than I have, tell me our campaign has the same sense of destiny of Bobby Kennedy’s in 1968; click here and that Barack too will prevail as long as we stay strong.