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How powerful is Arnold’s endorsement?

By Josh Richman
Wednesday, January 30th, 2008 at 8:51 pm in Arnold Schwarzenegger, Elections, General, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani.

Oh, sure, he’s the governator, an international superstar, a guy who made a mockery of Democrats’ voter registration edge twice. The Associated Press story says Schwarzenegger’s endorsement of John McCain tomorrow in Los Angeles is “giving a certain boost to the Republican presidential front-runner six days before California’s high-prize primary” and is “yet another setback for Mitt Romney.”

But consider a few things:

    (1.)Survey USA says the governor’s approval rating is at 47 percent, after having lingered in the 50s for all but one month since his November 2006 re-election. (The Field Poll put that number considerably higher in December, at 60 percent, so maybe this isn’t much of a consideration; on the other hand, that was before we were staring at a $14.5 billion deficit and 10 percent across-the-board budget cuts.)
    (2.)The California Republican primary is closed, meaning only registered Republicans can vote — no independents. And although this is a presidential year and turnout is expected to be high, closed party primaries tend to represent that party’s true believers, the ideological core, and less so the moderates. Yet both Schwarzenegger and McCain have made careers out of trying to secure not only their own party’s voters, but unaffiliated ones as well. (Of course, a closed primary didn’t seem to stop McCain from clinching Florida.)
    (3.)Some elements of the Republican Party are not so happy with Schwarzenegger right now. He has endorsed Proposition 93, the term-limits reform measure on next week’s ballot which his party staunchly opposes. He favors abortion rights, and although he has twice vetoed gay marriage, he has signed a slew of bills granting rights to domestic partners. Some have never been happy with his choice of advisers, including a Democratic chief of staff. Remember, Arnold Schwarzenegger has never had to win a Republican primary — he was elected in the raucous recall of 2003, and had no primary challenger in 2006.

Do I believe Schwarznegger will bring some votes McCain’s way? Yes. I’m quite sure any candidate would prefer to have this endorsement rather than see an opponent get it.

I also believe McCain will win in California; the latest polls show he has a substantial lead over Romney and Mike Huckabee, and most of the people who were planning on voting for Rudy Giuliani are more likely to migrate to McCain than to either of the others. California’s GOP primary isn’t winner-take-all — rather than the statewide popular vote winner getting all of the state’s delegates, the candidates are competing in each and every Congressional district; the winner in each district gets three delegates — that’s 159 — and then the statewide winner gets 11 more. I’m sure Romney and maybe even Huckabee might walk off with a few, but I’m betting McCain will get the lion’s share.

All I’m sayin’ is, maybe Arnold isn’t the powerful people-mover he once was — maybe his endorsement is far from making a big difference.

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  • http://www.stsfinerart.com MrUNPC

    MCCAIN’S CANES

    Bob Dole (at 73) was constantly labeled too old to run against Bill Clinton in 1996 and age is NEVER mentioned (at least yet) as a factor with McCain who is 72?

    John McCain’s candidacy was dead and buried until a few weeks before the NH primary due to incompetent staff, mismanagement and lack of money. McCain himself admits that he’s not well versed on economics…and voters are somehow convinced that this man can oversee the country’s economy better than a highly successful private sector businessman like Mitt Romney?

    Strip away John McCain’s 40+ year ago military experience, which we’re NEVER allowed to forget about or question (it’s just about ALL he ever references in speeches and debates no matter what question he’s asked), and you have nothing but a tired, old, empty suited, Washington, D.C. political hack/insider. He is an extremely weak candidate and a terrible debater by every account, especially compared to Mitt Romney (or even Huckabee).

    Without the assistance of his “Canes” propping him up during this farce of a
    campaign, John McCain’s candidacy would still be dead and buried. Day after
    day, the canes come out of the political woodwork to endorse ol’ RINO (Republican In Name Only) Johnny.

    MCCAIN CANE # 1…the Liberal biased Main Stream Media and Press. With orgasmic puff story after puff story, it resurrected McCain from the dead, elevating him to frontrunner status just in time for the election.

    MCCAIN CANE # 2…Independent and Democrat voters, who, for some bizarre reason, are allowed to vote in the REPUBLICAN primaries. I’d LOVE to meet the rocket scientists in those states who allow THAT to happen.

    In Florida, Mitt Romney was gathering tremendous momentum and soaring in the polls until the weekend before the election.

    MCCAIN CANE # 3…Florida Governor Crist who endorsed McCain just TWO days before the election.. Unfortunately, it was enough to convince a woefully uninformed voting public to vote for McCain and against Romney who was soaring in the polls until that moment. While this was bad enough, the fact that so many thousands of Floridians had to be TOLD who to vote just TWO days before such an important election was despicable, shameful, if not downright scary.

    MCCAIN Cane # 4…Rudy Guiliani, who ends his “campaign” with an endorsement of, who else but John McCain hours before the California debate. Even with THAT McCain, who has always been a terrible debater, was crushed by Mitt Romney at every turn…imagine what Obama would to to him?

    MCCAIN Cane # 5…California Governor, Arnold Schwartzenager who now is endorsing old Johnny just before the Super Tuesday primaries.

    If John McCain is the Republican nominee (heaven forbid), it will be done SOLELY with his the assistance of his canes and without them he is nearly helpless and will be easily defeated by either Hillary Clinton or upstart, 36 year old Barack Hussein Obama.

    Mitt Romney is by far the most qualified man in EITHER party and is a class act all the way. And yet since he became a GOP candidate for president, I have seen nothing but negative, trivial articles/stories about his Mormon religion, his money, his slick appearance, etc, all fully intended to sway a naive electorate that pays far too little attention to the most important 4 year event in our country.

    Mitt Romney is a TRUE family man and very successful at turning failed or failing enterprises around and Lord knows the United States of America needs turning around. It should be run as a business first, with a strong military to protect it from harm. All other social, giveaway programs should be scrutinized (and certainly would be under a Romney presidency) as to efficiency and even necessity. The fact that he was even elected Governor in a state (MA) controlled by 85% Democrat legislature was a feat in itself. In spite of it, he did a very admirable job as Governor, turning a large state deficit into a surplus. Of course, his many justified vetoes were constantly overturned by those liberal Democrats which made for a lot of frustration.

    If Mitt Romney does get the GOP nomination it will be MUCH to the chagrin of the Democrat National Committee liberal propaganda machine because he will be their worst nightmare and most difficult to defeat…Obama, Clinton, or otherwise.

    John McCain’s time has long since come and gone and it has become more than obvious during this primary campaign that he doesn’t even have the ability to WALK up the White House “stairs” without his “Canes”, let alone RUN the biggest economy and country in the world.

  • Joseph