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Will Obama win California?

By Lisa Vorderbrueggen
Tuesday, February 5th, 2008 at 2:07 pm in 2008 presidential primary.

A reader sent in this analysis: What do you think?

If the last seriously contested California Democratic presidential primary elections are any indication, Senator Barack Obama will be the winner today. California Democrats tend to back the “change candidate” or “new face”:

In 1972, Sen. George McGovern defeated former Vice President Hubert Humphrey.

In 1980, Sen. Ted Kennedy (44.8%) defeated President Jimmy Carter (37.6%).

In 1984, Sen. Gary Hart (38.9%) defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale (35.3%).

In 1992, Gov. Bill Clinton (47.5%) defeated former Gov. Jerry Brown (40.2%).

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  • RR

    I see a pattern: with the exception of 1992, the triumph of ideology over experience and an anti-Establishment bias. In harsher terms, the kiss of death or getting the endorsement of Al Gore.