The only Bay Area Assembly seat with a Republican party registration advantage has turned blue.
Sometime between Jan. 22 and April 4 — the dates of the two most recent registration reports issued by the California Secretary of State — the numbers of Democrats in Assembly District 15 overtook Republicans.
As of April 4, there were 110,577 Democrats, a lead of 2,664 voters over Republicans at 107,913.
On Jan. 22, Republicans had a slim, 272-voter margin with 106,983 members compared with 106,711 for Democrats.
Interestingly, registration in both parties rose in Assembly District 15 in the same time period while Republicans lost members statewide. (Click here to see the statewide figures.)
In October 2006, prior the re-election of Assemblyman Guy Houston, R-San Ramon, Republicans had a 2 percentage point registration advantage. (Click here to see a map of the district, which includes the San Ramon Valley and portions of far eastern Contra Costa County.)
Houston is the last remaining Republican left in a Bay Area partisan elected seat and he will term out this year (He’s running for Contra Costa County supervisor against incumbent Supervisor Mary Nejedly Piepho.)
Why has this happened?
Until I do further reporting, I can’t say with total certainty but a couple of things immediately come to mind.
Obviously, Democrats are charged up about the presidential election and the chance to take the White House.
And second, the local Democratic clubs of the area have displayed extraordinary stamina when it comes to putting volunteers out at local farmer’s markets and post offices to register voters.
Anyone have any other ideas? I’m curious why GOP registration rose in AD15 while it went down statewide.