Part of the Bay Area News Group

Random thoughts on Pennsylvania’s primary

By Josh Richman
Wednesday, April 23rd, 2008 at 10:26 am in Barack Obama, Elections, General, Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul.

senatorclinton.jpgWith only a few precincts outstanding at this hour, the Associated Press shows Hillary Clinton with 55 percent of Pennyslvania’s Democratic vote — it was a closed primary, no independents allowed — and Barack Obama with 45 percent; that’s 80 pledged delegates for Clinton, 66 for Obama, 12 more yet to be awarded.

So, the new delegate totals seem to be:

  • Obama — 1,481 pledged + 233 superdelegates = 1,714 total
  • Clinton — 1,331 pledged + 258 superdelegates = 1,589 total
  • CNN asks whether Clinton’s Pennsylvania victory came soon enough to save her candidacy: “Clinton told supporters in her victory speech that ‘the tide has turned.’ It’s more like she’s slowed the wave of momentum that appeared ready to carry Obama to the party’s nomination.”

    The win certainly seemed to have given Clinton at least some degree of financial boost; Bloomberg reports her campaign claiming to have raised $2.5 million after the polls closed last night. In context, however, not much of that will be left after she pays her debts: Obama started the month with $42.5 million available while Clinton had about $8 million on hand but $10.3 million in unpaid bills.

    obama.jpgClinton’s campaign put out a bulletin today noting “more people have voted for Hillary than any other candidate… Estimates vary slightly, but according to Real Clear Politics, Hillary has received 15,095,663 votes to Sen. Obama’s 14,973,720, a margin of more than 120,000 votes… This count includes certified vote totals in Florida and Michigan.” That would be the two states where Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign because they bucked the party’s rules by setting their primaries too early; Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan. Even counting Florida but not Michigan, Obama’s still in the popular-vote lead.

    So now it’s on to the May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. Real Clear Politics’ averages of several polls shows Clinton with a slim lead in Indiana and Obama with a comfortable lead in North Carolina. Nationwide, it’s Obama by 10 percentage points. Watch for all those numbers to change somewhat as yesterday’s results sink in.

    And Time magazine says “the real winner of the Democratic race in Pennsylvania is John McCain. The most significant number coming out of Tuesday night wasn’t Clinton’s 10 point margin of victory, but 43. That’s the percentage of Clinton voters who say they would stay home or vote for McCain if Obama is the party’s nominee in November.” But that doesn’t account for the more than a quarter of Republican voters in yesterday’s election who voted against McCain, picking Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee instead. True, there wasn’t a lot of impetus for McCain supporters to flock to the polls yesterday because he’s already the presumptive nominee; still, when 27 percent of those who did show up vote against the guy, you’ve gotta wonder how many of those people will vote against him or just stay home in November.

    [You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.]

    • Progressive Democrat

      Josh, there’s one important phenomenon going on here that you didn’t cover. And that is corruption of the primary process. Republicans have been urging members to change their party and vote in the primary for Hillary who is seen as a better candidate for McCain to defeat. This has happened in several states. Then they will re-register for McCain. The media hasn’t conducted exit polls or surveys to determine what % of Clinton supporters this represents. Also big media has reported official attempts at swiftboating Obama have begun already by the Republican party in North Carolina. These attempts unfortunately have been supported by the Clintons, who each time an attack has been made, co-sign it. This after Hillary declared Bill and her had been targetted by a “vast right-wing conspiracy” while THEY occupied the White House.
      What hypocrites and despicable they turned out to be!