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McNerney leads Andal by 11 points in CD11 poll

By Lisa Vorderbrueggen
Thursday, October 16th, 2008 at 7:46 pm in 2008 November election, Congress, congressional district 11.

Dean Andal

Dean Andal, GOP nominee, congressional District 11

Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Pleasanton

Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Pleasanton

CBS affiliate KPIX-TV Channel 5 released a poll tonight that shows Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Pleasanton, beating GOP challenger Dean Andal of Stockton by 11 percentage points, or 52 to 41.

The poll of 650 likely voters was conducted by SurveyUSA on Tuesday and Wednesday and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent, according to KPIX.

It’s the only independent poll conducted in the race so far.

I was actually at McNerney’s Dublin campaign headquarters when I heard the poll news and when McNerney arrived a few minutes later, he was happy. But he cautioned his supporters gathered for phone banking, “We can’t take anything for granted. We still have three weeks to.”

One of the poll’s most interesting findings was the gender gap. McNerney was leading by only 2 points among men but 18 points with women.

It may be a sign that hit pieces on Andal are working.Democrats have hit Andal hard in a series of campaign flyers that attempt to paint the Stockton conservative as a sexist knuckle-dragger.

Some of the Dems’ claims are thinner than ice in the Mojave but that doesn’t always matter. Voters say they don’t like hit pieces but they sure do remember them.

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  • Renegade GOP

    If McNerney’s 11 point lead holds this will be a crushing defeat for the Far right of the Tri Valley. Andal was the dream child of the GOP. He scared off Assemblyman Guy Houston and other potential Republican candidates. He was the dream child of the GOP. The story went he was the conservative from Stockton who was the heavy weight from the central valley that had the cash and the backing and the name ID to crush any Bay Area Republican who dared to run for CD11. He even had the support of the holy trinity of East Bay Conservatism Baker, Leach, and Del Baccaro.

    What they don’t understand is that there is a massive revulsion of all things Republican going on in California. They do not understand that the Republican Party especially in Washington DC has ruined the Republican Party. The Hypocrisy of a Political Party that expanded the Federal government 40% in 8 years, a political party that expanded and doubled the National dept to 11 trillion dollars. I could go on but why bother. I knew many years ago when Pombo expanded his district out to the East Bay he was a square peg in a round hole. And now the best of the far right could muster is falling far short and will go down to a miserable defeat.

    In 2010 I hope Republicans stand up and have a contested primary and choose a candidate who will fight to reform the DC republicans!

  • I hate Bush

    I voted for Jerry McNerney because I thought the Democrats would impeach President Bush if they gained control of Congress. Since they refused to impeach, there is no reason to vote for their party again, so I am voting for Dean Andal this time.

    Another thing I dislike about McNerney is how quick he was to vote for the $700 billion financial bailout. He didn’t ask any questions and voted for it when the details had not even been debated. He could at least held out until he got a few billion dollars in pork for his district.

  • GoodGov

    To I Hate Bush:

    When you voted for Jerry McNerney in 2006, was he advocating for the impeachment of President Bush? No. Was Nancy Pelosi, the presumed Speaker-to-be in 2006 advocating for impeachment? No. So why, even though your local congressman-wannabe at the time, and the highest ranking Democrat in government were not calling for impeachment in 2006, would you think they would do it in 2007 or 2008? And now, you are voting for Andal because they did not do what they never said they would do. Amazing. That’s like saying, “I started drinking Coke, but now I am switching to Pepsi because I wanted Coke to taste like Root Beer, but it didn’t.” In other words, whether it is politicians or beverages, get to know your product and know what it does before you swear allegiance to it blindly. Better yet, don’t vote if you refuse to do your homework. You are just messin’ it up for those of us who do.

  • Curious

    You pique my interest with this phrase: “Some of the Dems’ claims are thinner than ice in the Mojave” but don’t explain. It would be nice if you said what claims and why they are thinner than ice in the Mojave, but you don’t. Even a reference (and link) to an earlier column would be preferable to leaving things hanging like that.