Poll shows McNerney over Andal by 11 points

A poll commissioned by KPIX CBS Channel 5 and just released in the past half hour shows 11th Congressional District Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney of Pleasanton has an 11-point lead over Republican challenger Dean Andal of Stockton — 52 percent to 41 percent.

The poll — 650 likely voters surveyed Tuesday and Wednesday by SurveyUSA, with a 3.9-percentage-point margin of error — found McNerney leads Andal by only two points among men but has an 18 point lead among women. It also found McNerney leads by five points among voters ages 18 to 49; by 17 points among voters age 50 and over; by “single digits” among white voters and by “double digits” among minority voters. And the poll found McNerney leads by 11 points among those who said they’d already voted; early voting began Oct. 6.

The 11th District is the Bay Area’s only truly competitive House race, and one of only a few in California; as of last month, its registered voters were 41.3 percent Republicans, 38.4 percent Democrats and 16.7 percent declining to state any party affiliation.

“The results of the KPIX poll are encouraging and prove that what we’ve been doing – focusing on the needs and concerns of people in the district, tackling the issues important to the middle class like the economy, energy and honoring our veterans – is what’s matters to people,” McNerney said in a statement issued a few moments ago. “With just under three weeks to go until Election Day, I’ll continue to be out on the trail every day meeting with voters and working with grassroots volunteers from across the district who are spreading our positive message.”

I haven’t heard back from Andal’s camp yet; I’ll update this when I do.

UPDATE @ 6:50 P.M.: “We have no idea how this poll was conducted, so we can’t comment on it’s validity,” Andal spokesman Richard Temple says. “But our polling shows the race much tighter, and we’re confident that by Election Day, when voters see the difference between Andal and McNerney on the major issues they care about — taxes, earmarks and wasteful government spending, energy, and support for our troops in combat — voters will make the right decision.”

Josh Richman

Josh Richman covers state and national politics for the Bay Area News Group. A New York City native, he earned a bachelor’s degree in journalism from the University of Missouri and reported for the Express-Times of Easton, Pa. for five years before coming to the Oakland Tribune and ANG Newspapers in 1997. He is a frequent guest on KQED Channel 9’s “This Week in Northern California;” a proud father; an Eagle Scout; a somewhat skilled player of low-stakes poker; a rather good cook; a firm believer in the use of semicolons; and an unabashed political junkie who will never, EVER seek elected office.