Lt. Governor John Garamendi commissioned a new poll in the 10th Congressional District and it shows him with a substantial lead.
The survey of 400 likely special election voters found that if the election were held today, Garamendi would receive 24 percent of the vote compared with 13 percent for state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, D-Concord, 10 percent for Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, D-Alamo and 17 percent for Republican Contra Costa Sheriff Warren Rupf.
As one would expect from a statewide official who has been in public office for more than three decades, Garamendi enjoys far more name identification than his potential opponents: Garamendi 80 percent; Buchanan, 45 percent; DeSaulnier, 39 percent; and Rupf, 20 percent.
Pollster Jim Moore conducted the survey on May 1 and 4. It has an error rate of plus or minus 5 percent.
Read on for more details in the press release from Garamendi:
Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, California’s first elected state insurance commissioner and a deputy interior secretary under President Bill Clinton, would hold a commanding favorability and likely vote advantage over potential competitors in a special election in the 10th congressional district if current Representative Ellen Tauscher is appointed to President Obama’s administration, according to a poll released today (see attached pdf).
According to the poll of likely special election voters, 80 percent have heard of the Lieutenant Governor, and he is seen favorably by 35 percent. Only 12 percent hold an unfavorable view.
DeSaulnier is known by 39 percent, with 16 percent holding a favorable opinion and 13 percent holding an unfavorable opinion. Buchanan is known by 45 percent, with 17 percent holding a favorable opinion and 12 percent holding an unfavorable opinion. Rupf is known by 20 percent, with nine percent holding a favorable opinion and nine percent holding an unfavorable opinion.
“I have served the people of the 10th congressional district in one form or another for decades,” Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi said. “This poll reflects my decades of public service fighting for issues that matter to voters in Contra Costa, Solano, Alameda, and Sacramento counties.”
With 24 percent of likely voters inclined to back the Lieutenant Governor if there is a special election, Garamendi also holds a comfortable 11 point advantage over his nearest Democratic competitor. Sheriff Warren Rupf, Senator Mark DeSaulnier, and Assembly Member Joan Buchanan receive the backing of 17 percent, 13 percent, and 10 percent of voters respectively, with 36 percent of voters forming no opinion.
The poll was conducted between May 1st and May 4th by Jim Moore and JMM Research. Interviews were conducted with a 400-person sample from the 10th congressional district. Turnout was projected at 30 percent, and likely turnout was projected to be 55 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican, and 12 percent independent. The poll had a +/- 5 percent margin of error.