Garamendi leads in new CD10 poll

Lt. Governor John Garamendi commissioned a new poll in the 10th Congressional District and it shows him with a substantial lead.

The survey of 400 likely special election voters found that if the election were held today, Garamendi would receive 24 percent of the vote compared with 13 percent for state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, D-Concord, 10 percent for Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, D-Alamo and 17 percent for Republican Contra Costa Sheriff Warren Rupf.

As one would expect from a statewide official who has been in public office for more than three decades, Garamendi enjoys far more name identification than his potential opponents: Garamendi 80 percent; Buchanan, 45 percent; DeSaulnier, 39 percent; and Rupf, 20 percent.

Pollster Jim Moore conducted the survey on May 1 and 4. It has an error rate of plus or minus 5 percent.

Read on for more details in the press release from Garamendi:

Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, California’s first elected state insurance commissioner and a deputy interior secretary under President Bill Clinton, would hold a commanding favorability and likely vote advantage over potential competitors in a special election in the 10th congressional district if current Representative Ellen Tauscher is appointed to President Obama’s administration, according to a poll released today (see attached pdf).

According to the poll of likely special election voters, 80 percent have heard of the Lieutenant Governor, and he is seen favorably by 35 percent. Only 12 percent hold an unfavorable view.

DeSaulnier is known by 39 percent, with 16 percent holding a favorable opinion and 13 percent holding an unfavorable opinion. Buchanan is known by 45 percent, with 17 percent holding a favorable opinion and 12 percent holding an unfavorable opinion. Rupf is known by 20 percent, with nine percent holding a favorable opinion and nine percent holding an unfavorable opinion.

“I have served the people of the 10th congressional district in one form or another for decades,” Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi said. “This poll reflects my decades of public service fighting for issues that matter to voters in Contra Costa, Solano, Alameda, and Sacramento counties.”

With 24 percent of likely voters inclined to back the Lieutenant Governor if there is a special election, Garamendi also holds a comfortable 11 point advantage over his nearest Democratic competitor. Sheriff Warren Rupf, Senator Mark DeSaulnier, and Assembly Member Joan Buchanan receive the backing of 17 percent, 13 percent, and 10 percent of voters respectively, with 36 percent of voters forming no opinion.

The poll was conducted between May 1st and May 4th by Jim Moore and JMM Research. Interviews were conducted with a 400-person sample from the 10th congressional district. Turnout was projected at 30 percent, and likely turnout was projected to be 55 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican, and 12 percent independent. The poll had a +/- 5 percent margin of error.

Lisa Vorderbrueggen

  • Don’t I recall that in initial races that Obama & McNerney were fairly behind the incumbents &/or the “well-knowns” of earlier races ? On the other hand – it did take very considerable efforts for the comparatively “new kids” ( across the whole district(s)) to win in the end – and by surprising margins as compared to the odds they had at the very beginning. So, the results of work ahead will be the real poll – i.e. – the final result is the only poll that counts !

  • Cadem

    This is actually a bad result for john. If they are reporting the “informed” ballot ( after descriptions) then the Garamendi lead is weak. What is more likely is that this is the initial question, meaning that the informed ballot question was worse.

    That is the problem with these selective releases. They have some truth, but not the whole truth. I would bet this iPhone I am typing on that this initial matchup was followed by a series of bios on the candidates and a followup matchup – with Buchanan ahead.

    But unless they release the whole poll, nobody will know.

  • Rich

    Garamendi is a shallow, glib glandhander who has got about as much substance as a Harlequin romance novel. Contra Costa county has long produced distinquished legislators like George Miller, Ellen Tauscher and Tom Torlakson. Going back we had State Senator George Miller – he created the master plan for education in our state. Former Jack Knox was responsible for all the landmark enviromental legislation. I think State Senator Mark Desaulnier is in keeping with this tradition of highly skilled legisaltors. Garamendi, compared to this group, looks like Elmer Gantry. He’s an outsider bringing his tent show into Contra Costa County. These poll numbers – which reflect name regognition only – will be the highwater mark for Garamendi.

  • Becca

    Early polling numbers are not all that reliable and with a +/- of 5% I don’t put a whole lot of stock in these polls.

    I have no doubt that the Lt. Gov. has higher name recognition than a one term Assembly member and a State Senator. If he didn’t then that would be sad. That being said, again, early numbers mean nothing. This campaign will be all about who has the strongest ground game.

    Tony is right, the only numbers that matter are on election day.

  • Elwood

    Garamendi has been called lots of things, particularly by the Marky Mark supporters on here, but glandhander is a new one.

  • EastBayDem

    24% is an underwhelming number for Garamendi, especially for someone who claims to have “served” the 10th District for decades upon decades (although judging by his announcement video and subsequent remarks, he seems to think the district includes Altamont Pass, the Oakland hills and Fremont). A statewide elected official having name ID is not surprising — let’s see if he can build solid, on-ground-support. My guess is no.

  • EastBayDem

    Looks like Garamendi’s pollster was a little loose with the truth: