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Garamendi pollster challenges SurveyUSA spin

By Lisa Vorderbrueggen
Thursday, August 13th, 2009 at 3:28 pm in 2009 CD10 special election.

Garamendi

Garamendi

Tulchin Research pollster Ben Tulchin, who conducted candidate and Lt. Gov. John Garamendi’s recent internal poll, scoffed at SurveyUSA’s statement earlier today that the 10th Congressional District race is a toss-up among the top three Democrats.

In a poll commissioned by KPIX-TV, SurveyUSA concluded that Garamendi, state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan are “bunched” together at the top. Based on its definition of “bunched,”  coupled with the expected low turnout in a stand-alone election, they concluded that any one of the three could prevail on Sept. 1.

The SurveyUSA poll of 552 likely  voters of both major parties and decline to state shows Garamendi with 26 percent of the vote, an 11-point lead over DeSaulnier at 15 percent followed by 12 percent for Buchanan.

“It’s just wrong,” Tulchin said. “SurveyUSA just wanted to grab some attention and a toss-up is a sexier headline.”

Tulchin’s poll of likely Democratic and independent voters found Garamendi with 31 percent of the vote, a 10-point lead over DeSaulnier with 21 percent followed by 17 percent for Buchanan.

Both polls confirm Garamendi’s lead in the race, Tulchin said.

And if you look even deeper into the SurveyUSA poll, Tulchin said, there is no room for either DeSaulnier or Buchanan to bridge the gap. Garamendi leads among all ethnic groups, women and people age 50 and older, a group that votes in high numbers. He also received 14 percent of the vote among Republicans polled, second only to GOP candidate David Harmer.  And only 11 percent of those polled say they are undecided.

“It’s almost impossible for any of the other Democrats to win,” Tulchin said.

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  • http://www.meridianhq.com Matt Rexroad

    Ok. Let’s assume that Tulchin is right about Survey USA.

    How does he defend not even polling Republicans in a race they can cast a ballot in? This is not a closed primary sort of race.

    Neither one of these tools is ideal to predict the outcome since neither model the circumstances of the election.

    Matt

  • Rebecca

    For those who say this robo-call poll seals the golden boy’s winning fate,
    they are nothing but partisan spinmeisters trying to make the boss look great.

    I would point them to the same robo-call poll which had Terry McAuliffe 36 points in the lead,
    but a mere two weeks later, he lost all his steam.

    The experts termed this race a toss-up for all the right reasons,
    they know that this election is in the most difficult of seasons.

    The people are tired of politics and not tuned in,
    to a bunch of democrats – they know that no a republican will win.

    This race won’t be won, by spin machine machinations,
    turnout will be low, and it will be up to the best ground operation.

    Here the blue eyed swain will run short I insist,
    because he only relies on his name like a true narcissist.

    So Elwood and other snarks will keep up the grand illusion,
    While the boss that these hacks serve remains in delusion.

  • Elwood

    Re: Post #2

    We’ll see on Sept. 1, won’t we?

    All together now, repeat after me: Congressman Garaventi, Congressman Garaventi.

    De Nile is a river in Egypt, and also the last hope of some posters on here.

  • Rebecca

    Poor Ben has sold his good name for a few coins in the bank,
    defending a ‘poll’ he knows to be rank.

    The golden-boy’s first and proven pollster he fired,
    because his true campaign manager didn’t like him and so they hired,
    a young sycophant who will say anything to get paid,
    the truth be damned don’t let it get in the way.

    Youth, how it sometimes makes us do foolish things we regret,
    Ben unfortunately will find that a reputation is hard to re-get.

    They say politics is war and that may be so,
    But when dealing with Mephistopheles never sell your soul.

    Elwood the snark, will continue his delusional tirade,
    but for Ben this deal he made, it will have been a lousy trade.

  • Elwood

    Re: Post #4

    Could you please post in English?

    My doggerel is not that good.

  • Snark

    This poll is a joke…if anyone out there thinks Republican David Harmer is getting 14% among African Americans, and the lone African American in the race is getting 11%, I have some swampland in Florida I’d like to sell you.

    P.S. Does SurveyUSA sell “interest only” mortgages too?

  • Steve Berg

    Go Rebecca!

  • ted ford

    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6c90a278-432e-4153-9619-e553fa1c065a SUSA poll most important figure may be that of those who “have already voted”. it certainly looks like Garamendi has it.

  • Rich

    Garamendi has no grass root support nor does he have any orginizational suppport in CD 10 either, like the labor unions or the orginizations of Miller, Toralakson and Tauscher. The support Garamendi is geting from this poll is coming from voters who have minimal interest in politics, they are looking at the list of names offered and saying they recognize Garamendi’s name (who has been running for office for 30 years, including four failed runs for Governor). These casual type voters won’t even turn out to vote in a special election, so this poll is meaningless. The candidate with the best chance to win is DeSaulnier because he has the kind of voters supporting him who will take the time to vote, like Democratic activists, union members, and the many friends he has made in his years as a councilman, mayor, assemblyman and state senator. Garamendi knows nobody in this district – he is an out-of-town carpetbagger, and this will impact his vote total as well come election day. The voters in this district – it’s a silk stocking district – are too sophisticated to vote for this out-of -town carpetbagger.

  • Elwood

    It’s always good to see Rich’s post.

    The same one over and over.

  • BJD

    I hate to do this, but I have to agree with Elwood.

    Stop the taking points, Rich… it’s getting old.