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CD10: KPIX poll shows Dems in three-way race

By Lisa Vorderbrueggen
Thursday, August 13th, 2009 at 10:54 am in 2009 CD10 special election.

Garamendi

Garamendi

DeSaulnier

DeSaulnier

Buchanan

Buchanan

A new KPIX-TV poll says any of the top three Democrats — Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier or Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan — could win the party’s nomination in the Sept. 1 special primary election in the 10th Congressional District.

The polling company based its conclusion on the difficulty of making predictions in a low turnout stand-along election coupled with what it called as the “bunching” of the top three Democrats: Garamendi is in the lead with 26 percent, followed by DeSaulnier at 15 percent and Buchanan at 12 percent.

Among the Republicans on the ticket, attorney David Harmer of Dougherty Valley is the prohibitive favorite at 18 percent.

Polling company SurveyUSA contacted by telephone 551 likely and actual voters on Monday and Tuesday. Democrats comprised 51 percent of those who responded, while 33 percent were Republicans and 16 percent were decline to state. The survey has an error rate of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

You may recall that the Gararmendi campaign released a few days ago portions of his internal poll that put him 10 percentage points ahead of DeSaulnier.

Clearly, both polls show Garamendi in the lead, although as SurveyUSA and just about every other political expert has observed, it is extremely to difficult to predict in a low turnout election who will actually vote.

It is also problematic to compare the results of the two polls.

Garamendi’s pollster called only Democrats and decline-to-state voters. With no Republicans in the mix, that probably drove up Garamendi’s positive numbers.

On the other hand, SurveyUSA uses a unique polling method. Unlike a conventional survey where a person calls a specific individual randomly selected for the sample and conducts a live interview, SurveyUSA uses an automated system to call randomly selected households selected for the sample. Anyone in the household can pick up the call and respond via the phone’s keypad to a pre-recorded set of questions.

Traditional pollsters are skeptical of the methodology although it has gained in popularity, largely because it is far cheaper than a conventional poll.

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  • John C

    Ha! I guess its not year of the woman anymore. Crawl home chick-etta and let the big-boys lead!

  • Elwood

    I think the story here, Lisa, is that both polls show Garamendi with a commanding lead, not how “close” the race is.

    But you can dream.

  • Cindy Shannon

    Hey John C (aka troglodyte)

    Your post sickens me.

    I was leaning toward one of your ‘big-boys’ but now I am definately voting for the ‘chick-etta’.

    Thanks for helping me to decide.

    P.S. I just emailed your post to several dozen of my girlfriends and they all vote.

  • Brian Lawrence

    Considering that Mr. Garamendi has the highest name ID and that this will be a very low turnout election, this race is still wide open. People are used to seeing Garamendi’s name because he’s been running statewide since 1914 (I believe he narrowly lost to Hiram Johnson). I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a ballot without Garamendi’s name on it- I think Deb Bowen has a ballot template with Garamendi’s name and she just fills in around it (including filling in which office he’s running for).

  • Elwood

    How could anyone have higher name recognition than the beloved Marky Mark who has been a Concord City Councilman, County Supervisor, Assemblyman and State Senator

    Maybe it’s because Marky Mark always kept a low profile while straddling the fence.

  • Rebecca

    Elwood – the smug political operative for Garamendi should keep this in mind,
    for on election day he might very well the same find:

    On May 18-20 a Virginia poll said:
    Terry McAuliffe 36%
    Brian Moran 22%
    Creigh Deeds 13%

    But a mere two weeks later the actual voters put it to bed:
    Creigh Deeds 49%
    Terry McAuliffe 26%
    Brian Moran 23%

    Whatever the result will be,
    one thing for certain we can guarantee.
    Actual voters in this election will be sparse,
    because the hot summer is ending and most now see politics as a farce.
    Just because we all on Lisa’s blog are tuned in,
    doesn’t mean that those anointed today will win.

    I believe that the pending victor in this race is already due an ovation,
    for they have had for weeks had an unparalleled ground operation.

    So Elwood will continue his snark while he may,
    as I know the rest of us are looking forward to it ceasing on election day.

  • Bob Loblaw

    I perceive Garamendi’s support to be an inch deep and a mile wide. He has no apparatus in the district, no people, no loyalties and no volunteers. In this sort of election you need people more than you need money and name ID.

    I don’t think the polls are reflecting anything other than name ID.

    I’ve had Buchanan and DeSaulnier volunteers knock on my door, so they are working the neighborhoods. Garamendi could be a shock 3rd if they pull off good field campaigns and the turn out is very low.

  • Elwood

    Thank you very much for the update on the Virginia election. Fascinating, I’m sure.

    De Nile, etc.

    All together now, keep practicing:
    Congressman Garaventi, Congressman Garaventi! Very good!

    And thank you so much for the doggerel. It’s most impressive.

  • Snark

    If any Sacramento politician is promoted on September 1st, it is a sad day for California, and an even sadder day for America.

    Narcissism and revolving doors are no substitute for genuine leadership.

  • Elwood

    Makes me wonder if anyone reads this thing. I’ve seen his name on my paychecks for years, and here I’ve been calling him Garaventi! Now THAT’S funny!

    OK, one more time: Congressman Garamendi, Congressman Garamendi!

  • Snark

    This one is for Rebecca, and for Lisa V.

    Here’s what Survey USA had to say, six days before the Virginia Gubernatorial Primary in June…

    McCauliffe 35%
    Deeds: 29%
    Moran: 26%

    20 points in 6 days? Someone had better get Ben Tulchin on the phone…

    Here’s the link to SurveyUSA’s Virginia poll: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=66070492-73e7-410b-9c82-4efd09c81e7c

  • Elwood

    Gee, some folks here are sure fascinated with Virginia elections.

    And de Nile is still a river in Egypt.

  • Ralph Hoffmann, Guest Columnist

    This poll doesn’t count the write-in vote cast for me.

    I’d like a $200,000 / yr. salary, free health care, staff and travel paid by taxpayers. Just send me $2400
    so I can get this bailout, and pay for my limo to SFO, to DC so I can collect a contribution from Pharma.

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