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CD10: CBS poll shows Garamendi leads by 10 points

By Lisa Vorderbrueggen
Thursday, October 29th, 2009 at 6:49 pm in 2009 CD10 special election.

Harmer

Harmer

Garamendi

Garamendi

A new CBS Channel 5 poll conducted by SurveyUSA shows Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi ahead of his GOP opponent David Harmer by 10 points.

Garamendi received 50 percent support, while Harmer took 40 percent followed by 6 percent for one of the three minor party candidates. Only 4 percent were undecided.

Folks may recall that SurveyUSA is the same outfit KPIX hired to do several pre-primary polls in this race. They turned out to be remarkably accurate.

The results of the only independent poll in this race reflect a wider gap than what Harmer’s campaign people said their internal poll of several weeks ago, a trend that should have gone the other direction if Harmer was gaining traction.

But given Democrats’ 18-point registration lead in the 10th District, it seems as though Garamendi ought to have a bigger lead.

The answer may be found in the results for decline-to-state voter, where Harmer leads 42 to 35 percent; it’s a group Harmer has targeted.

SurveyUSA conducted the automated robo-style survey of 581 registered voters on Oct. 26-28. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percent.

In its other findings:

1) Half of the respondents have already voted by mail

2) Garamendi leads among women, whites, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Democrats, moderates, liberals, college graduates, pro-choice voters and Obama supporters.

3) Harmer leads among Republicans, independents, conservatives, regular church-goers, pro-life voters, gun-owners and McCain supporters.

Click here to download the poll from KPIX’s Web site.

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  • http://deleted Edi Birsan

    The real issue is who leads amongst those that vote? Here the get out the vote efforts of the Garamendi and Harmer campaigns are critical. Republicans have historically a higher % of turnout, plus it is typical that extremes on both sides tend to turn out more in low turnout elections. Decline To State voters include a large group of disaffected Republicans who defected out from the extremism that is the California Republican party. If they ignore or are misdirected by Harmer’s view against Public Education, against Social Security, against government health care, against Gay Rights and against a Woman’s right to choose, then they may once more be pulled into the realm of voting for the Republicans.

    At the end of the day, it is always those that vote that call the election.

  • steve weir

    I would also like to point out that the only real poll is the actual election results. That won’t stop speculation. As a Registrar of Voters, I hope that sampling polls don’t have an inpact on those who choose to vote, or who choose not to vote.

    Special Vacancy Elections over the past 10 years in California have scarcely hit anywhere in the 30% turn out range. As of today, Contra Costa (we’re 69% of the 10 Congressional District) has had 62,290 vote by mail ballots returned in the 10th CD. That number represents a 25% turn out in-and-of-itself. So, I’m hoping for a turnout in the mid to high 30 percentile.

    Since vote by mail will represent over 70% of the total vote cast (it was 77% in the Primary), the election will, most likely, be decided in the VBM balloting. However, we have poll sites set up and ready for any of you who choose to vote on election day.

    Personally, I hope all registered voters in the 10th Congressional District seriously consider casting your ballot. For those of you who choose to vote, we’ll accurately count your ballots.

    And, remember, there is an election for Mayor/Council in San Ramon, as well as Measure I in Walnut Creek and school measures in Walnut Creek and Acalanes School Districts.

  • Tom Benigno

    Concerned:
    The people are concerned about the leadership of both parties and their candidates. The present two party candidates are no different than incumbents running for another term. Lets get some new blood. Harmer represents more Tort reform and Garamendi represents more status-guo. Vote with your heart, not your party.

  • Mike F.

    Garamendi is a carpet-bagger; he should not be running in a district that he doesn’t live within. I wonder what the geographical results show? I’ll bet the Demos. of CoCo County are pulling the weight, so as not too lose the seat to the Repubs. The Garamendi machine will make our local Demos. adjust to his needs, not vice-versa, as he showed he can divide and conquer in the primary.

  • Elwood

    Whatever happened to Marky Mark?

    Oh, I remember now, he was busy fixing the Bay Bridge.