New poll numbers on Prop. 19

The campaign for Proposition 19 – the measure on California’s ballot next month that would legalize marijuana cultivation, possession and use – is citing new poll numbers it says show the measure is favored to pass.

From Public Policy Polling:

PPP continues to find Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana in California, favored to pass. The margin in this week’s poll is 47/38 in favor, which does represent a tightening since July when we found it ahead 52/36. One thing that’s interesting about the marijuana polling is that it really doesn’t break down along party lines to the same extent most of the things we poll do. 56 percent of Democrats support it to 28 percent opposed and 30 percent of Republicans support it with 57 percent opposed. That’s a lot more division within the ranks of both parties than we’re seeing on a lot of stuff.

The PPP poll surveyed 630 likely California voters from September 14 through 16; the poll has a 3.9-percentage-point margin of error.

And from Survey USA:

Support for Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana and allow for its regulation and taxation, also remains essentially unchanged over the past 3 weeks. Today, 47 percent (of likely voters) vote “Yes” on 19, 42 percent vote “No.” Opposition to 19 is above 50 percent among conservatives, Republicans, tea party supporters, pro-life voters, and the oldest voters. Support is above 50 percent among men, younger voters, liberals, Democrats, pro-choice voters, higher-income voters, and in the Bay Area.

SurveyUSA – commissioned by KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno – surveyed 1,000 California adults Sept. 19 through 21; 850 of them were registered to vote, and 610 of those were deemed likely to vote in next month’s election. The likely voters subset has a 4-percentage-point margin of error.

Prop. 19’s proponents are spinning this as good news, as the yesses outnumber the noes, but I don’t think it’s that simple.

Neither of these polls show the measure with more than 50 percent; the conventional wisdom is that a California ballot measure needs to be showing at well over a simple majority in the polls leading up to Election Day, as the election results typically underperform the polls. Prop. 19’s backers believe there’s a vast, untapped young electorate out there which will come to the ballot boxes in droves in order to support this measure; they’re very proud, for example, that the “Yes on 19” Facebook page has 177,836 friends. But not all of those friends are Californians or voters, and I’ll believe the invisible tide theory when I see it happen.

Also, the PPP poll shows the percentage of likely voters supporting Prop. 19 has slipped five percentage points since July, while the percentage opposed has grown by two percentage points; the SurveyUSA poll shows support has remained flat in recent weeks. Neither shows the kind of trending that would be good news for the measure, especially given the fact that the “Yes on 19” campaign hasn’t racked up many big-ticket donations (though it did get $50,000 this week from Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz of San Francisco) and so probably can’t afford much of an ad blitz in the final weeks before the election.

Josh Richman

Josh Richman covers state and national politics for the Bay Area News Group. A New York City native, he earned a bachelor’s degree in journalism from the University of Missouri and reported for the Express-Times of Easton, Pa. for five years before coming to the Oakland Tribune and ANG Newspapers in 1997. He is a frequent guest on KQED Channel 9’s “This Week in Northern California;” a proud father; an Eagle Scout; a somewhat skilled player of low-stakes poker; a rather good cook; a firm believer in the use of semicolons; and an unabashed political junkie who will never, EVER seek elected office.

  • John W

    With everything happening in Sacramento, D.C. and elsewhere, people are probably thinking they may need legalized access to weed.

  • Bryan

    It will be a disaster for California if prop 19 does pass. The gangs will become much more aggressive because they’d be losing a primary source of income. They’re going to move to robbery, child-sex trafficking, and pushing harder drugs.

    The arguments for prop 19 are getting more holes poked in them every day. People are realizing that overall, it will cost CA a lot more money than it makes them. It’s just not a fix to budget problems. Actually budgeting is the solution to budget problems….not selling drugs.

    The latest argument that I heard for prop 19 made me laugh they were so dumb. The NAACP came out earlier this week and said marijuana laws are racist because they disproportionally affect black people. I wonder if they’d use the same logic with the murder laws. Black men are put in jail on murder charges a lot more than other races. Does that make the murder laws racist? Should we legalize murder because it disproportionally affects black men?

    Please vote “No” on prop 19 for the good of the country.

  • Edward DeMarco

    Bryan you should not be able beacuse your an a idoit the gangs will get more aggressive if ou really think weed is a primary source of income our as stupid as you sound.Prop 19 will generate hundreds of millons of dollars over they next few year. dont you have a prop 8 rally to go to

  • Edward DeMarco

    i know i spelled a couple words wrong its becuase i am smoking weed right now o no……. i fill angry i am going to go on a crime spree beacause i am high

  • lisa

    i agree no on 19 im a medical patience but think about it how much easier would it b 4 our kids 2 get there hands on it take some from big bro or sis or whom ever younger and younger kids r going 2 think its koolthere r other ways 4 our econemy 2 repair its self but prop 19 is not the answer

  • Bob Dobbolina

    A 12 yo can go to a 7-11, and buy a COCAINE derivative preparation,(ORA-GEL), that is meant for use by INFANTS for teething pain.
    A dying CANCER patient has to live in fear of MIDNIGHT RAIDS and ARREST for their ‘legal’ use of MEDICAL CANNABIS.
    Why is INDUSTRIAL HEMP still considered a “SCHEDULE 1 NARCOTIC?

  • Don Juan

    Bryan, Your argument that crime will flourish with the passage of Prop 19 holds no factual basis. When we look at prohibition, we saw crime greatly increase when Alcohol was illegal and then it greatly diminished when prohibition was repealed. By your argument, illegal alcohol sales would have continued after the repeal of prohibition and/or they would start selling harder substances. But that did not happen. We also did not see the amount of alcohol available and the number of users differ due to its legal or illegal status.

    Please provide a case study to justify your claim that crime will increase if Prop 19 passes (I assure you there are none).

    And – I’d like to add, history shows us that laws are laws and can be changed. We shouldn’t not do something out of fear of what could happen…. if we did, we would do nothing at all.

    Vote YES on Prop 19.

  • Ron

    If one person looses his or her life because some idiot is amoking and driving, Prop 19 passage will have been a disaster. You can be sure that many of the idiots who support this prop will be smoking and driving, so what do you suppose will be the outcome? We have a perfect system for medical marijuana in California right now. Are we going to throw it away so every useless fool can get high and avoid looking at why his/her life is not working?

    Vote NO on Prop 19.

  • someone

    no on prop 19.

    “Tax Cannabis 2010” creates:
    A compromised drug-free workplace
    And ZERO revenue for the State of California

    “The Federal Drug-Free Workplace Act of 1988 requires that all employers
    who receive government grants and contracts greater than $100,000 maintain a drug-free
    workplace. ”

    “The Act Will Cost the State Billions in Federal Funding While Limiting
    Employers’ Rights to Maintain a Safe and Drug-Free Workplace

  • Wade

    All of the “no” voters here are voting no based off of weak philosophies. Alcohol and tobacco are worse for you than marijuana. Not everyone can get access to MMJ when they need it.

    Vote “yes” on prop 19. MJ shouldn’t have ever been illegal.

  • Kelvin

    For the people who think passing the bill will endanger drivers, think of all the peolpe driving high off marijuana, as it is how many times in the news do you see alcohol related accidents in relation to marijuana related accidents. Plus their is a difference in the way it makes you drive, I.E. when you under the influence of alcohol and you come up to a yellow light you get the mentality that you can beat the light, so you race to the light in hopes of making it. Where as with marijuana, you see the yellow light and you get the mentality of “oh man I should slow down” plus it’s safer got the body than alcohol

  • claudia rannikar

    the intent of this prop 19 is “legalize marijuana to get the state out of debt”…this is a bail out for the state…it will enable them to avoid being responsible for the billions of dollars in growing debt…the tax stream is enormous from state, to county to city…there will be a bigger and more powerful government as a result…if prop 19 passes we will be handing the government a “get out of jail free” card and handing ourselves a “go to jail” card by holding ourselves responsible for the crimes of robbery and distortion we did not commit

  • Fear Mongers Suck

    Wow, nothing like all the fear mongers.

    It will pass no problem, no matter what you fear mongers say.

    When it does pass and a year from now when the fear mongers fears do not come to pass, and life continues normally………

    I promise I wont get in your face and tell you, you were wrong.

    I’ll be humble, though once passed one has to wonder who would have the guts to say they voted against this.

  • Silent

    Will April 20th become the next hallmark holiday?

  • it our right nobody elses

    it our right to use whatever we want. who are you to tell me what i can or cant do. I can make up my own mind.

  • turkeyfish

    “Will April 20th become the next hallmark holiday?”

    Yet another opportunity for economic revitalization. Oh no, we shouldn’t have that. Lets sell fear instead. Lets continue to do things the same old way and end money to the drug cartels instead.

  • Johny Nothing

    Go to wiki and read the list of oppostion to this prop 19. I think you’ll find it kind of strange that maad(mothers against drunk driving) and the alchohol industry agree on something ^.- A vote yes on prop 19 is a vote yes for personal freedom guys.

  • Johny Nothing

    Also .. If you’re worried about your children. I don’t know where you live but where I live it’s much harder for underage persons to obtain regulated drugs such as alchohol and tobacco than for them to obtain illegal drugs such as marijuana and methampetamines.I urge you to read the prop. It seems to increase penalties for providing the drug to underage persons.Up to 7 years imprisonment for persons over 18 providing to persons under 14.So the argument it would make it easier for children or underage persons to obtain is flawed.

  • Jim Anderson

    Who’s money is behind the fight to keep it illegal?

    Law Enforcement? Afraid of revenue losses?
    Big Pharmacy? Afraid of revenue losses?
    Alcohol Industry? Afraid of revenue losses?
    Government Authorities who have their thumbs on you?

    People who have never tried pot because they believe the lies that our government tells them.

    Follow the money, the ones who are fighting the legalization are in it for the money or the control.

  • i wished i lived in calif. so i could vote yes on this important issue,this is insane to keep taking away our personal freedoms just to keep fighting the war on pot. how insane is it to have to pee to work even crazier how can the govt. keep punishing americans who stay home to smoke a joint instead of going to a bar and getting drunk our founding fathers wouldnt beliieve how the govt. is punishing its citizens over pot,. its not the govt. business to punish americans for using pot . please calif. pass this prop

  • Brennon

    Vote “yes” on proposition 19

    Take the cannabis industry out of the hands of dangerous drug cartels, and drug dealers who lace it with dangerous things. I Know this would stimulate the economy. It is a safer substance than tobbacco and alchohol. There is no lethal overdose. It kills 0 people per year. It also shouldn’t have been legal in the first place but you can thank the government for spreading propaganda and fear into minds. Vote “yes” Its your choice not the governments we don’t want a nanny-state. I think we can decide for ourselves whats right and whats wrong. Thanks government but i’ll keep my guns, my u.s.a constitution and my bill of rights.

  • If your against passing the law in my opinion you’re a hypocrite *if*… 1. You know nothing about prohibition. 2. You’re a drunk. 3. Have your hand in the money. 4. Have tried cannabis at least once, and in that case you should have been sent to jail to rot for doing so, to see how it feels. 5. Take chemically altered substances that affect the mind when you really don’t need it, and I’m talking about doctor visits for opium derived drugs.
    There are simply more important things to worry about than catch somebody smoki’n a joint on their back porch. As consumers we already spend most of our money on over priced merchandise. As a fan of the black market, by voting this bill into place may mean I can’t get some of the heavier drugs I don’t mind from time to time. You can label people drug addicts and seekers, that’s ok, that just means our founding fathers were incapable men because of their use. And the argument that cannabis is a gateway drug is BS and a redundant statement. By voting against the proposition your obviously not looking for solutions, that’s why America is where it’s at right now. Good luck guys/gals and I’ll see you at the polls when it comes to my state.

    Marijuana Is Far Less Harmful Than Most Any Prescription Drug, Cigarettes, Chew, Narcotics & Alcohol. This Nation Needs The Legalization & Tax Dollars That Are To Be Brought From It. You Never Hear Of Anyone Doing Anything Harmful Or Reckless And Then In Court The Excuse “I was High” Because Thats Never The Reason. Its Always Drunk or Under The influence of a psychidelic drug. Or a disorder as depression, skitzophrenia, or some-sort. Which Marijuana has been prescribed to these individuals with Beneficial results. If the Government thought that leaglizing pot was going to turn out bad in the future. I dont think they would have even let the idea come about, let alone on a poll. We NEED CHANGES, MAYBE THIS IS OUR CALLING<<< WHY NOT GIVE IT A TRY? AND STOP ALL THIS NONE SENSE ABOUT PEOPLE BEING ARRESTED OVER IT. OBAMA EVEN SMOKED POT. COME ON

  • Dylan M.

    i think california needs to vote “yes” on 19.It WILL bring extra revenue,from everything to glass,hemp ware,anything hemp,and the selling of marijuana.i live in oregon and i see ALL the benefits of legalizing marijuana all around me.money for poor rural schools(which i go to),money for communities,money to educate the children bout pot not just tell them a bunch of lies and put them in the state of fear.yes youngins shouldnt smoke/consume,but i personally think its ok for a 17-21 year old to smoke/consume pot.because your old enough to make your own decisions of right and wrong and we can control it better.i thought pot was “evil” just another drug people do,but then i tried it,what the hell theres nothin wrong with it.i was shocked,ive been lied to my whole life.and for all the people against prop.19 go sit and spin,get the REAL facts.when your stoned driving your more cautious of your surroundings and other people.and the drug free workplace?still be drug free.but yet cigarettes are a drug also.drug cartels?their money profits will go DOWN cause its just ONE of MANY drugs they manufacture.since its legal and state controlled they wont receive or gain any extra profits.violence WILL go down cause people will be to lazy to kill,rape,rob,etc. cause their baked out of their minds.
    aslo alcohol,cigarettes,any tobaccoo products,are also drugs!!! so when you take that drag ,or sip of wine or whatever,you are consuming a drug.the only reason why people dislike marijuana,is cause its illegal!i could go on an on an on.but i think i made my point. i recomend all the nay sayers to watch a simple movie called The Union:The Business Behind Getting High.

    VOTE “YES” ON 19!!
    p.s. im 17 and a proud marijuana activist,for medicinal marijuana and recreational marijuana legalization all over the world.

  • John W

    I voted against Prop. 19. Typical poorly written ballot box legislation. But, if it passes, it should be fun to see how things play out with the Feds.

  • chris

    bryan and ron u r idiots there has been no case where someone has crashed thier car and killed someone due to marijuana and bryn for the god of the nation really? i think a few billion $ is pretty good for the nation dumbass

  • Sean

    I’m Voting “NO” for the simple fact that since I’m in the business of midical marijuana I will lose money! Bigger companies are all ready talking about if they pass it then they will start selling it over the counter and then I will lose income and consumers. Not only that but there really wont be no control over it. People will grow it and then those bigger companies will lose money too. But by then I would be shut down. CA will make money on the front end when people get all excited but then will lose money on the long term because people will start growing it themselves and give it out or sell it even cheaper in the streets. VOTE NO!!!!

  • chris

    im my opinion if you are a steriotyplical “stoner” with no real knowledge on prop 19 and are just in it for the hype and to get super stoned then you should just keep your mouths shut because that is fuel for the fire against prop 19 you are essentially ruining it for the rest of us

    vote yes on 19

  • John

    -Gangs will lose so much income that they will be decimated. No one wants hard drugs, or anything else that they are pushing.

    – You can’t get drunk at work, and alcohol is legal. If you think that companies are going to let you come to work high, you can forget about it. But now maybe they won’t invade your personal privacy to see what you do in the safety of your own home, behind closed doors.

    – Marijuana cannot cause “overdose” unless you smoke about 1,500 joints in 15 minutes.

    – I don’t advocate smoking while driving, but alcohol is legal and not everyone who gets drunk, drives.

    I hope that Prop 19 will pass, for the sake of the country. If you don’t want to use Marijuana, than don’t. But to tell someone, “You can’t smoke a joint after a stressful day at work, in your own home, with no one around, because I say so” than you are ignorant, and against personal freedom. I personally think alcohol should be illegal, but I am not so close minded as to not see the disastrous effects of prohibition.

    Marijuana is not illegal because it’s dangerous, it’s dangerous because it is illegal.

  • Ralph Hoffmann

    The Pot topic seems to be going and going and going.

  • Lonny

    yes on 19, reading some of your reasons on why it shouldnt pass make me think you the ones that are high.

    1. prop 19 will not cause no dent in the drug trade, they have human smuggling, meth, coke, xtacy, heroin that list can go on.

    2. marijuana shops /dispensers/ clinics will benefit. People would be allow to grow in a 25×25 foot area legally and sell that to dispensers. So not only will you still make money the supplier does as well.

    3. Calif. is in a 40+ billion hole if done right and not mismanaged some of these marijuana dispensary can bring 100million a year that can help alot.

    4. we all know marijuana doesnt do us harm, in fact marijuana is more a stress reliever and sleeping aid. What do the doctors here in the us.
    Prescribe some pill only to be recalled in 5 years cause it whats causing people to flip out, OD, die cause it was some how damaging the persons.

    5. We waste more money on drug wars world wide but yet we cant help poverty here in the stats.

    California outlawed pot alone in 1913. Almost 100 years of a non sense law that got us were?

    So again yes on 19!

  • Elwood

    Lonny, could pot be the cause of your illiteracy?

    Or are you just illiterate?

  • RR, Uninvited Columnist

    Don’t be too hard on Lon. He’s probably in line for a big job with the DNC.

  • Abby

    Look, you guys, marijuana is going to be abundantly available whether it is legalized or not. I am only 16, but if you told any one of my friends (including the ones that don’t smoke) that you would give them a hundred dollars if they could get you some weed in half an hour, they would be handing over in under fifteen minutes. Guaranteed. Personally, I won’t be effected by whether or not it is legalized. The biggest impact will be felt by the government, the ones getting all the extra tax money!

    See my point?

  • Abby

    Oh and I would like to point out that most of my friends don’t do drugs of any sort (comment above).

  • Darby

    Wether you like it or not you have the right to smoke marijuana in the safety and privacy of your own home. If you argue that it will be easier for our kids to get to, then you must argue that we need to outlaw alcohol, cough syrup, morning glory flowers, etc. Kids are going to get ahold of marijuana wether you like it or not, the only question is, do you want little Johnny getting it from Shady Tom who sells from an alley way in oildale or the rite aid down the street? I’m not saying youd want them to get it in the first place, but if its completely out of your hands dont you want to at least eliminate the possibilities of them not coming home one day because they thought that guy was “Legit”?

  • Darby

    Elwood, could it be your stuck up richy bitch name that makes you a pretentious ass—-?

    or are you just a pretentious ass—-?
    seems like you have nothing to make a good arguement out of so you decide to attack opposers on a personal level.

    Stop giving the Government all of your rights and power or when they do something we really dont like, we will find ourselves not able to do a damn thing.

  • Amanda

    i was horribly depressed for years and i began smoking pot and im no longer depressed and i earned friends from it and im just a better person over all

  • Elwood

    Ah, Darby, so eloquent!

    You’ve been smoking, haven’t you?

  • Sara and Meg WHO ??!!

    Elwood’s reliance on the ad hominem contributes nothing of substance. . but certainly brings a titillation factor that is absent from any other serious discussion.

    And, one need only ask who such titillation benefits to begin to understand.

    It is either a very troubled psyche . . or . . more likely simply a calculated play . . . to draw eyeballs . . . . and click-thrus . . . and Google ad-word revenues . . .

    THose of you that thought this was a venue for serious discussion . . . . suckers, one and all !

  • Elwood

    Please point out the “serious discussion”.

    Certainly none of your posts.

  • Legalize Marijuana! Politicians need to stop doing what they think is “politically correct” for their careers, particularly those who smoke it themselves, and start doing what is polically correct for the good of the people they serve. The historic “Prohibition” was then to alcohol, as criminalization is to marijuana; stupid, because marijuana will probably be legalized in the nxt few years to the same degree as alcohol. Neither hard drugs nor marijuana hold a candle to the wide spread devastation caused to family, health, and society, by alcohol abuse and addiction. The other drugs are simply more publicized as being the worst of the worse. No sensible person would advocate the legalization of hard drugs, but marijuana is nothing compared to the problems caused by alcohol, and this nothingness uselessly costs us billions in taxes for the enforcement of laws regarding marijuana. It is having an addictive personality that is the primary cause for the abuse of any of these substances, not the drug itself, including alcohol. Unfortunately, the ease of obtaining and abusing alcohol by those with addictive pesonalities, makes alcohol seemingly a precursor to the use of other drugs. The second and close runnner up cause for drug abuse and addiction, is the everyday stress among young people and others who are of weak financial means, who then turn to gangs and/or their drug abusive friends for support. The financially well off should not blame the problem of major drug abuse on the latter, when they obviously don’t understand what it is like to live in relative poverty. As long as our goverment permits capitalism, and then inherent poverty, we are doomed to a major drug problem in society. Thank you, Jack Harris