GOP 11th Congressional District nominee David Harmer has a six-point lead — 48 percent vs. 42 percent — over incumbent Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney in an exclusive KPIX-commissioned poll released tonight.
SurveyUSA called 750 people between Oct. 8-11 using an automated telephone system.
In other survey findings:
- Among men, Harmer leads by 20 points
- Among women, McNerney leads by 6 — a 26-point gender gap.
- Harmer has a bubble of support among voters age 35 to 49;
- The candidates are effectively even among older voters.
- Harmer, who previously ran unsuccessfully for Congress in Utah’s 2nd District in 1996 and in California’s neighboring 10th Congressional District in a special election last year, takes 8 of 10 Republican votes. McNerney, who is seeking a third term, takes 8 of 10 Democratic votes. Independents break 5:3 for the Republican.
Traditional pollsters pooh-pooh SurveyUSA’s automated phone survey methodology, largely because pollsters cannot verify the identities of the individuals who respond via their telephone key pads. But SurveyUSA was remarkably accurate in the prediction of the outcome of the 2009 10th Congressional District special election.
SurveyUSA obtained responses from 624 likely and actual voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The question was: “If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for … (names rotated) Republican David Harmer? Democrat Jerry McNerney?”
David Harmer (R) — 48%
Jerry McNerney (D) — 42 percent
David Christensen (AIP) — 4 percent
Undecided — 5%