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CD11: Harmer leads McNerney in new poll

By Lisa Vorderbrueggen
Tuesday, October 12th, 2010 at 6:56 pm in 2010 election, congressional district 11.

HARMER

HARMER

MCNERNEY

MCNERNEY

GOP 11th Congressional District nominee David Harmer has a six-point lead — 48 percent vs. 42 percent — over incumbent Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney in an exclusive KPIX-commissioned poll released tonight.

SurveyUSA called 750 people between Oct. 8-11 using an automated telephone system.

In other survey findings:

  • Among men, Harmer leads by 20 points
  • Among women, McNerney leads by 6 — a 26-point gender gap.
  • Harmer has a bubble of support among voters age 35 to 49;
  • The candidates are effectively even among older voters.
  • Harmer, who previously ran unsuccessfully for Congress in Utah’s 2nd District in 1996 and in California’s neighboring 10th Congressional District in a special election last year, takes 8 of 10 Republican votes. McNerney, who is seeking a third term, takes 8 of 10 Democratic votes. Independents break 5:3 for the Republican.

Traditional pollsters pooh-pooh SurveyUSA’s automated phone survey methodology, largely because pollsters cannot verify the identities of the individuals who respond via their telephone key pads. But SurveyUSA was remarkably accurate in the prediction of the outcome of the 2009 10th Congressional District special election.

SurveyUSA obtained responses from 624 likely and actual voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The question was: “If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for … (names rotated) Republican David Harmer? Democrat Jerry McNerney?”

David Harmer (R) — 48%

Jerry McNerney (D) — 42 percent

David Christensen (AIP) — 4 percent

Undecided — 5%

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  • Common Tater

    I’m surprised McNerney is doing so well. I could carve a better congressman out of a pineapple.

  • Truthclubber

    Harmer 52%, McNerney 48%.

    “Truth Quaaluder”, where are you? Out looking for a real job, now that your SEIU-paid duties shilling for an unemployed wind consultant hack masquerading as a “renewable energy entrepreneur” are about to come to an abrupt, and DESERVED end?

    Yo, ignorant one: STFU. GPSUYA. ESAD.

  • ted ford

    this is going to be huge Republican blow-out, nationwide

  • Ralph Hoffmann

    This is going to be a huge third-party blow-out, nationwide. Voters are convinced Big Labor Dems and Big Business GOP have brought about our decline and fall.

  • Rick K.

    Watch the independents. Whichever way they go will determine who wins. Harmer did very well against sitting Lt. Gov. Garamendi in 2009 in the neighboring district and even defeated Garamendi at polling places on election day (a clear rejection of Garamendi’s knee-jerk “proven” Democratic claptrap, union boss ring-kissing and supposed “experience”). The Democrats are throwing away their majority because of their failure to pay attention to independents.

  • Mr. Creative 1

    America governs best from the right of center where bills can actually be debated and hammered out that will benefit most Americans instead of this liberal left supper majority that McNerney has been in lock step with. David Harmer is a breath of fresh air in this sea of garbage that pollutes Washington right now. The question is do we want 4 more years of a “Peloci Rubber Stamp” with McNerney or do we want a fresh start with David Harmer that will go to Washington and fight for “We the People”. I believe that the Founders got it right when they gave us the power to vote. Time to stand up and make a difference…. Time to get out and VOTE ! DAVID HARMER is the clear choice for me….

  • Mr. Creative 1

    …. and one more thing… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAn6XJh4xgo if this wasn’t so funny I would probably cry…. “We the People” are coming to take America back…..

  • Dan

    The road to a common sense majority in Congress runs rigth through the 11th CD. Dave Harmer is smart, dependable and understands the proper role of government in a free society. McNerney/Pelosi/Reid are toast.

  • John W

    No surprise. I agree with Ted Ford. Looks like a blowout nationwide in House, Senate, Governerships and state legislatures. I’m not happy about it, but it may be good for Obama in 2012 if he does a Clinton (without the blue dress part) and the GOP sees this as love for their agenda and overreaches (they will). Politically speaking, the best thing Obama could do is give the GOP lots of rope on health care, so that people can get a clear look at what the Repubs have in mind and how it would affect them.

  • Elwood

    John W explains it all to you!

    What would we do without him?

    The phrase pompous ass comes to mind.

  • Elwood

    And what third party might that be, Ralph?

  • http://www.jerrymcnerney.org DanvilleDemocrat

    Don’t crack open the champagne bottles yet over at Harmer H.Q. This poll has problems, even though I’d be first to acknowledge Congressman McNerney has work to do.

    Among the tiny subset who have actually voted (which can be a valid data point, no matter how small), any “enthusiasm” gap is erased, and McNerney leads 48% to 46%. Moreover, the poll indicates that 79% of respondents make above $50,000.00 when that number is closer to 60% (see, e.g., http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/house/california/11).
    Also, an electorate where there are DOUBLE the number of Conservatives to Liberals doesn’t jive with the registration numbers for the district, where party registration is even and DTS voters are just over 20% of the electorate.

    It’s worth noting that this isn’t the first time SUSA has had problems polling this district: they understated McNerney AND his opponent’s support substantially in 2008.

  • Mr. Creative 1

    Dan Dem,

    Here’s a news flash for you…… Real Americans are MAD AS HELL with the services of the current band of thieves that occupy Washington DC right now. Nancy Peloci, Jerry McNerney and Harry Reid just haven’t done the job they promised to do for “We the People”. We have had a liberal congress for the past 4 years and look at what they have done…. America can’t take 4 more years of Jerry McNerney’s rubber stamp for Nancy Peloci…. Time to wake up and stop drinking the kool-aid. Time to give a “Reagan Conservative” a chance to help us all… Time to vote for DAVID HARMER….

  • Pingback: CD11: Dueling polls emerge | Political Blotter

  • Jason

    We have had a liberal congress for the past 4 years and look at what they have done>>> We had a GOP Congress for 4 years. Here is what they did: deregulated, gave tax cuts to the wealthy, allowed jobs to go overseas without oversight, rubberstamped an illegal war, turned a blind eye to sexual pervert Mark Foley, refused to stand up to torture (I recall the Democrats voting to make waterboarding a crime. Take a wild guess which party voted it down in mass numbers).

    I’m okay with the fact you oppose the Democrats if that is your prerogative. Just don’t beat the drum on the GOP improving any bit when considering the current Congress. After all, how often did they say “No” to a bill? Five days a week, about 48 weeks a year the past almost two years.

    Time to give a “Reagan Conservative” a chance to help us all>>> Funny you all tout Reagan as some hero when his economic views hurt people like yourself. Talk about confusion!

  • Mr. Creative 1

    Jason, Reagan had to bail out Jimmy remember (use to be the worst president we had until Obummer came along). My business grew and flourished under Reagan cause of less government. I’m one of those guys that doesn’t want Big Brother as my partner. The progressives love that stuff and it’s understandable too…. you want the government to take care of you from cradle to grave…. I can take care of myself if we can take these taxes off my back and get the government out of my way…. My bet is that you feed at the government or union troff and are happy with the slop they are feeding you….

    Have you ever seen what water boarding is…. it’s a great interrogation technique and it had kept us safe…. I’m all about keeping us safe and taking out the bad guys…. BTW, the bad guys are here and now so I hope you keep your powder dry…

  • John W

    Mr. Creative,

    I’m confused. You’re entitled to your views, and I’m totally for making sure we have a climate that doesn’t get in the way of businesses like yours. If Harmer’s your guy, go for it. But, when you talk about getting taxes off your back, what are you referencing? Except for a few Reagan years, tax rates are, by far, the lowest they’ve been in generations. Marginal rates were 90% under Eisenhower and 70% under JFK. If you have a profitable business and organize properly, you can pay yourself in dividends instead of salary and pay only 15% — less than the 15.3% a minimum wage worker pays in payroll taxes. The Bush cuts didn’t yield job growth and were funded on the Bank of China credit card. Due to some extra credits that were part of the stimulus package, taxes are even slightly lower than under Bush. I realize some of that will likely change in 2011, but you spoke of the present. What’s so bad about the Clinton-era tax rates, when the economy boomed and generated a budget surplus? When you say the Dems haven’t done what they promised, did you really expect that we would have a V-shaped recovery from a near-depression that has systemic, not cyclical roots? When there is no emerging industry like dot-com, telecom or anything else to replace the ponzi real estate economy that gave us a false sense of well-being for several years? When the skills of the unemployed do not match job openings that go unfilled? With globalization pressures? And, in contrast to the last few months under Bush, losing 700,000 jobs a month and zero net new private sector jobs after eight years, we have at least had very modest private sector job growth for 9 consecutive months throughout 2010. As for 4 years of Dem control of Congress, the recession began 7 years into a Republican administration and less than one year after the Dems regained a slim margin in Congress (after 12 years of GOP rule). The economy crashed on Bush’s watch, remember? By the way, contrary to mythology, Reagan didn’t bail out Carter. Stagflation and the corresponding high interest rates were the cumulative result of “guns and butter” under LBJ and OPEC oil shocks that began during two Israeli/Arab wars under LBJ and Nixon. Remember wage and price controls under Nixon and “Whip Inflation Now” under Ford? And who hired the Fed Chairman (Paul Volcker) who came in to break the back of inflation with the painful but effective medicine of interest rate hikes? Jimmy Carter! The way people talk, you’d think that Carter took over a thriving, low inflation, low interest rates economy and wrecked it in six months. If you want to blame Dems and government for a bad business climate, blame California government. You’ll get no argument from me on that.

  • Firefox

    See the new article entitled two polls showing very different results. McNerney’s poll, conducted with live telephone interviews of voters shows McNerney ahead with 10% points.

    It says Survey USA is not as reliable. Also that the two rivalries between the two polling organizations is as intense as that between the candidates.

  • John W

    Guess we’ll find out in two weeks.

  • rcharperatlaw

    Great, trade a wingnut, hypocritical, bailed out derivatives trader adn perennial candidiate for an environmentally conscious, thoughtful, hard working engineer. “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.” – P.T. Barnum
    And what is this “Big Government” that you are talking about? One that forces women pregnant from rape and/or incest to carry the baby to term. One that subsidizes BP for destroying the environment? One that lets law enforcement run rampant, search your home at random, and pry your firearm from your cold dead hands?

  • John W

    Re # 10

    Classy!

  • Bob R

    Tea Partier Harmer is up???? Im going to run out in the rain to McNerney HQ and make calls. We have to stop the right wing~~

  • Jason B.

    Go for it, Bob! Your phone calls could provide the crucial edge for McNerney. It’s amusing that Harmer keeps switching his campaign slogans. Last year in CD-10 his first campaign signs declared: “No More Bailouts!” After Harmer’s extensive work history as senior in-house lawyer at the failed WaMu Bank (and his personal “bailout” severance package after WaMu collapsed) became public knowledge, Harmer quickly abandoned “No More Bailouts!” What a hypocrite.
    Look at the “Political Blotter” from May 26, 2010:
    http://www.ibabuzz.com/politics/2010/05/26/cd11-was-harmer-bailed-out/

  • Elwood

    Congressman Harmer! Congressman Harmer!

    Get used to saying it boys!

  • def94528

    There are problems, with SurveryUsa polls as noted in the url below. SurveyUSA, which is pro Harmer, tends to favor older households with land lines and automated processes. Judging from the Tracy debate and other McNerney, McNerney had a much younger crowd.

    We will see in two weeks.

    http://blogs.wickedlocal.com/massmarkets/2010/10/20/umass-amherst-professor-says-cell-phones-are-causing-political-polls-to-be-less-reliable/

    “Schaffner says many polling organizations adjust for these changes by including cell phone users, too. But not all of them do. He says some well-known polling companies, including Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, don’t incorporate cell phones into their polling work. Those surveys, Schaffner says, run the risk of being biased in favor of Republicans because the polls are more likely to exclude younger voters who tend to vote more frequently for Democratic candidates.”