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Fundraising, voter reg look good for McNerney

By Josh Richman
Tuesday, January 31st, 2012 at 10:16 pm in 2012 Congressional Election, campaign finance, Jerry McNerney, U.S. House, voter registration.

Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Pleasanton – who’s running in the newly drawn 9th Congressional Districtraised $250,974 and spent $86,847.58 in the fourth quarter, finishing 2011 with $780,339.54 cash on hand and no debts.

Republican challenger Ricky Gill, 24, of Lodi – whom the National Republican Congressional Committee in August named a “Young Gun” for his aggressive organizing and fundraising – had gotten off to a hot start last year, raising more than $429,030 in the second quarter and more than $225,000 in the third quarter.

But Gill’s pace continued to slow in the fourth quarter: He raised a net of $124,188.65, loaned his campaign another $67,460.97 (bringing his self-financing total so far to almost $143,000), and spent a net of $1,910.14. He finished 2011 with $837,617.67 cash on hand but $142,839.73 in outstanding debts – a net bankroll of $694,777.94.

And new voter registration data released today by the Secretary of State’s office shows the new 9th District is 44.6 percent Democrat to 35.8 percent Republican; that’s an edge McNerney didn’t have in 2010 when seeking re-election in his old 11th Congressional District, which was 39.3 percent Republican to 39.0 percent Democrat.

Is the Young Gun getting outgunned?

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  • Truthclubber

    Joshie — I want what yer smokin’, dude! (Unless it turns me into a “ragin’ mad cow”, aka “Rachel Maddow”)

    To claim that a 24 year old (where you don’t bother to mention that McNerdy is pushing 60 H-A-R-D — whoops, your bias is showing!) is not keeping up with a three term incumbant is total hacked BS, when:

    1) The challenger is ahead in COH, $838K to $780K

    2) The challenger is raising 97.4% of his money from individuals in this toxic, “Super PAC” atmosphere — vs McNerdy with 38% of his money coming from toxic “non-individual” buyouts of our elective process

    3) The challenger has had to deal with noise such as “Newt Gingrich as the nominee/Rick Santorum as the nominee/Rick Perry as the nominee/Michele Bachmann as the nominee/Herman Cain as the nominee/Sarah Palin as the nominee” for much of this most relevant money-raising period

    4) The challenger has had to deal with the uber-liberal press bias expressed by the likes of yourself (“Is the Young Gun getting outgunned?” — which is completely inappropriate, IMHO)

    5) The contrast between a Princeton undergrad and UC Berkeley Law School graduate (the challenger) and his opponent, a failed wind energy consultant hack (the incumbant) who was grossly unemployed at the time he was elected in 2006 (by casting his incumbant, Dick Pombo, as beyond the pale) has yet to be exploited by the challenger — BUT IT WILL.

  • Josh Richman

    No need to get testy, Truthclubber.

    I guess you missed that Sunday front-page story I had a few weeks ago about how McNerney, at 60, is the youngest member of a rather elderly Bay Area delegation. But I think people are probably more wowed by a challenger who hasn’t yet had the birthday that would qualify him to serve.

    As I noted very clearly in the item, Gill is ahead in cash on hand – if you don’t count the $143,000 in outstanding debts his campaign has, money that’s already spent and so can’t be spent again.

    Yes, the incumbent got a lot of PAC money that the challenger didn’t. Shocker. But you’re confusing Super PACs with PACs – Super PACs by definition cannot give money directly to candidates. (Apparently you missed my story on that, too.)

    I will agree that Gill and other Republican challengers probably haven’t benefited from the Republican presidential roller-coaster – good point, well taken.

    My question invited comments, and you were all too happy to jump at the chance, IMHO.

    And don’t I recall you being absolutely, positively, 100 percent sure that David Harmer was going to clean McNerney’s clock in 2010? The voter registration numbers don’t lie – Gill clearly has a steeper mountain to climb than Harmer did, especially considering the turnout boost that comes with a presidential election.

  • Truthclubber

    McNerdy did NOT get 50%+1 of the vote last election — as you’ll recall if you’ve a mind and a willingness to remember — Harmer was defeated by ~ 5% of the vote going to some right wingnut, uber-fascist who pulled votes from Harmer’s razor-thin loss to McNerdy in what was a district that registered McNerdy’s way.

    Absent that lack of control by the CAGOP, we would be referring to Congressman Harmer today — and so McNerdy once again does not win, but watches as his opponent loses (Pombo in 2006 due to massive voter suppression and the anti-Bush tsunami, Andal in 2008 due to lack of fundraising prowess and smears against his record so appalling that Democrats like Klehs come to his defense, and the pro-Obama tsunami) and Harmer in 2010 who should have beaten an incumbent Congressman if the CAGOP had its act together.

    I agree with Willie Brown that “in politics, it’s better to be lucky than good” — and McNerdy (as Brown once referred to him, in PUBLIC) is definitely more lucky than good, but perhaps against Ricky Gill (a real talent with real credentials, albeit the conservative ones that send folks like you, Joshie, into hives) his luck has run out.

  • Josh Richman

    Dunno what the state GOP has to do with it; it’s usually the NRCC that does or doesn’t exert influence and control in House races like that. But, we’ll see what kind of game Gill has in the coming months.