Ask yourself this – if Jerry McNerney really had polling on July 12 (see poll memo) that showed him up 16 points, would he have been hiding it all this time?

For credibility’s sake, consider that the non partisan Cook report rates this race as Dem+2. (The Gill poll tracks that score: McNerney 47, Gill 45.)

By contrast, the ‘curious’ McNerney poll memo would have you believe that Ricky Gill – who got 40 percent in the primary (out of 53% total GOP primary vote), has now dropped to 33% – a full 20 points below the GOP candidates’ June primary total, and even below the McNerney poll’s own internal GOP registration number (38%). Again, no serious analyst would give credence to that.

McNerney’s pollsters would also have you believe that Jerry McNerney, who is under-performing Obama’s ballot score by seven points, is somehow still thundering ahead with independents by 24 points (!) despite being less-known in his new Congressional district.

Really, now.

So inquiring minds want to know – what did McNerney’s poll REALLY say – and why was he hiding it?

Most likely explanation – the incredulous ballot score quoted by Team McNerney is the so-called ‘INFORMED ballot’ score – the score they got AFTER attacking Ricky Gill with a series of ‘push’ questions.

And in that case they’re still at only 49%.

That makes more sense, and would be something for Jerry McNerney to hide, indeed.

Difficult to draw any conclusions from this story.