Labor Day usually marks the start of the traditional campaign season, when voters start tuning in more earnestly about the issues and candidates on November’s ballot. With that in mind, here are the latest polling numbers from the California Business Roundtable’s weekly survey:
Prop. 30 (Gov. Jerry Brown’s tax increase) – 54.4 % yes, 40.5 % no
Prop. 31 (two-year budget cycle, etc.) – 40.9 % yes, 36.2 % no
Prop. 32 (bans political contributions by payroll deduction) – 57.3 % yes, 33 % no
Prop. 33 (auto insurance) – 56.5 % yes, 31.8 % no
Prop. 34 (death penalty repeal) – 40.1 % yes, 49.5 % no
Prop. 35 (human trafficking) – 82.2 % yes, 10.8 % no
Prop. 36 (three strikes sentencing reform) – 74.1 % yes, 17.8 % no
Prop. 37 (labeling of GMO foods) – 65.4 % yes, 23.4 % no
Prop. 38 (Molly Munger’s tax increase) – 39.6 % yes, 49.4 % no
Prop. 39 (corporate tax loophole) – 59.2 % yes, 28.9 % no
Prop. 40 (state Senate redistricting) – 47.8 % yes, 25 % no
A lot of money will be spent in the next two months to move these numbers, so don’t read too much into them now. That said, a few thoughts:
Voter support for any measure often declines as Election Day nears, so anything already polling under 60 percent “yes” has a tough road ahead.
Jerry Brown’s tax measure is looking a lot stronger than Molly Munger’s, but neither looks like a powerhouse.
California voters appear ready to save some prison-budget money by putting fewer people away for life (by requiring that a “third strike” be a serious or violent felony), but not by abolishing the astonishingly costly capital punishment process.
Watch for an extremely well-funded ad blitz from the food industry to knock down Prop. 37’s numbers as soon as possible.
Nobody’s campaigning for Prop. 40, yet it still has more support than opposition; go figure. It won’t for long.