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Kashkari pays for 60-second ad during World Series

For Neel Kashkari, the new mantra might be “Go big AND go home.”

The Republican gubernatorial candidate, whom polls and pundits predict will lose to incumbent Gov. Jerry Brown by at least 15 to 20 points in next Tuesday’s election, has bought a 60-second ad during tonight’s World Series Game Six between the San Francisco Giants and the Kansas City Royals.

The ad is the same one Kashkari rolled out a week ago, continuing to berate Brown for choosing to appeal a court decision that gutted the state’s teacher tenure laws:

Sources close to Kashkari’s campaign say Tuesday night’s game, and the ad, are expected to do a “40 share” – which, translated from television ad parlance, means it will be seen by 2.5 million-plus Bay Area households. At upward of $150,000 for that one minute, it’s a huge investment especially given Kashkari’s lackluster fundraising – he’s had to sink $3.1 million of his own money into his campaign this year – but aims to build upon Kashkari’s drumbeat of criticism on the education issue.

His first ad on the matter – depicting a child drowning in a swimming pool (“betrayed” by Brown) until Kashkari rescues him – was meant to grab voters by the lapels and pay attention, and now this big ad buy is the follow-through, the campaign sources say.

Officials at KTVU, the Fox affiliate that’s airing the World Series in the Bay Area, didn’t return calls and emails Tuesday.

Posted on Tuesday, October 28th, 2014
Under: 2014 general, Gov. Jerry Brown, Jerry Brown, Neel Kashkari | 1 Comment »

Poll: Brown, Props 1 & 2 look good; 45 & 46 lagging

Gov. Jerry Brown is cruising to re-election and the ballot measures he supports are looking good, while voters aren’t sure about two other, more contentious measures, according to the Hoover Institution’s Golden State Poll.

The survey, administered by the survey research firm YouGov from Oct. 3-17, sampled 1,273 California adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.65 percent for the full sample.

“The poll’s numbers reflect a California election that contains little in the way of political intrigue or public enthusiasm,” Hoover fellow Bill Whalen, a California politics expert who leads question development for the Golden State Poll, said in a news release. “However, there are signs of trouble on the horizon. The public isn’t sold on some contentious tax and social issues.”

Brown leads Republican challenger Neel Kashkari 48 percent to 31 percent among registered voters – a 17-point gap not unlike the average of four other recent polls. Yet Brown, seeking an unprecedented fourth term, doesn’t achieve majority support in this poll.

43 percent of voters planning to cast ballots in this election said strengthening California’s economy should be the governor’s top priority next year; 17 percent said balancing the state’s budget should be the top priority; 16 percent said improving the state’s public education system should be the top priority; 10 percent reducing the state’s long-term debt burden should take precedence; 7 percent said improving roads, bridges and public transportation is most important; and 6 percent said protecting the environment is most important.

Voters planning to cast ballots in this election are split on what to do with Proposition 30, Brown’s 2012 ballot measure that temporarily raised income taxes on the rich and increased sales taxes by a quarter-cent. The poll found 21 percent want it made permanent; 9 percent would extend it for six to 10 years beyond its scheduled expiration in 2018; 17 percent would extended it for one to five years; 17 percent would let it expire; and 29 percent would repeal it as soon as possible, while 8 percent weren’t sure.

Proposition 1, the $7.5 billion water bond, is supported by 52 percent of voters planning to cast ballots in this election and opposed by 22 percent, with 26 percent unsure.

Proposition 2, to beef up the state budget’s “rainy day” reserve fund, is supported by 47 percent and opposed by 19 percent, with 34 percent unsure.

Proposition 45, to grant the insurance commissioner authority to reject unreasonable health insurance rate hikes, is supported by 42 percent and opposed by 30 percent, with 29 percent unsure.

Proposition 46 – to raise the cap on non-economic medical malpractice lawsuit damages, require drug testing of doctors, and require use of a state database to avoid “doctor shopping” by drug abusers – is supported by 34 percent and opposed by 37 percent, with 30 percent unsure.

Posted on Tuesday, October 28th, 2014
Under: 2014 general, ballot measures, Gov. Jerry Brown, Jerry Brown, polls | No Comments »

AD16: Dems try hard to GOTV for Tim Sbranti

Gov. Jerry Brown wasn’t the only one who showed up Monday in Pleasanton to sing Assembly candidate Tim Sbranti’s praises.

Sbranti, a Democrat and Dublin’s mayor, is locked in a tight battle with Republican Catharine Baker – a Dublin attorney – for the 16th Assembly District seat from which Joan Buchanan, D-Alamo, is term-limited out. It’s arguably the Democrat-dominated Bay Area’s only competitive cross-party contest, and both sides are looking for that bit of extra oomph as Election Day looms just a week away.

“There is milk right now on the shelves at grocery stores that won’t have expired before this election is over,” Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Dublin, told volunteers and party faithful at a United Democratic Campaign office in a shopping strip near the Stoneridge Mall.

Sbranti was among Swalwell’s teachers at Dublin High School, and the freshman congressman praised Sbranti’s record in the classroom and at city hall. “We are working as hard for Tim Sbranti as Tim Sbranti has worked for us.”

Others touting Sbranti at Monday’s rally included Senate Majority Leader Ellen Corbett, D-Hayward; Assemblyman Bill Quirk, D-Hayward; Assemblyman Bob Wieckowski, D-Fremont; Assemblywoman Susan Bonilla, D-Concord; and Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner, D-Berkeley.

“We will keep this district blue, and you are the reason,” Skinner vowed to the cheering crowd.

Quirk, speaking one-on-one, said it all comes down to getting as many voters as possible to cast ballots, as lower turnout will hurt Sbranti’s chances. The district’s current voter registration is 39.4 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican and 22.2 percent independent.

“We’ve got to make sure the turnout is high,” Quirk said. “Our job is to get people to vote.”

Posted on Monday, October 27th, 2014
Under: 2014 general, Assembly | No Comments »

Rounding up the AD16 and AD15 drama

There are all kinds of drama popping up in the East Bay’s hottest Assembly races.

In the 16th Assembly District, it’s a tale of dueling endorsements. Steve Glazer, the Orinda Democrat and former Jerry Brown political advisor who lost in June’s primary, essentially endorsed Republican Catharine Baker in a Facebook post Wednesday.

Nobody thought there was any love lost between Glazer and the Democrat in this general-election race, Dublin Mayor Tim Sbranti, given the scorched-earth campaigns they ran against each other this past spring. But some thought Glazer might’ve kept quiet, even having already burned his bridges to the Democratic party and the unions that are its biggest backers.

Meanwhile, Sbranti on Wednesday rolled out Gov. Jerry Brown’s endorsement – not a shocker, but certainly an effort to jump on the chief executive’s coattails as he coasts into a fourth term.

Over in the 15th Assembly District, Democrat Tony Thurmond of Richmond launched his first television ad Thursday, touting his accomplishments and endorsements:

But his rival, fellow Democrat Elizabeth Echols, is calling attention to the independent spending that’s being done on Thurmond’s behalf – which now tops $255,000 worth of research, polling, mailers and field expenses in the last few weeks.

“The California Independent Petroleum Association has now put $450,000 into two groups working to defeat my campaign,” Echols wrote in an email to supporters Thursday. “They are the driving force in the effort to expand fracking in California. One has to ask why they have chosen to get involved in my race, given the progressive tradition of our district. Luckily, their involvement has only motivated my supporters.”

The email went on to invite supporters to a fundraiser she’s holding October 28 at the Sierra Club’s office in Berkeley, co-sponsored by the Sierra Club, the California League of Conservation Voters, state Sen. Loni Hancock and Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner.

Thurmond has a fundraiser scheduled for this Sunday, Oct. 19 – at the Oakland Raiders-Arizona Cardinals game. A $2,500 contribution buys a luxury suite ticket, food and drinks; a $4,100 contribution gets two tickets.

Posted on Thursday, October 16th, 2014
Under: 2014 general, Assembly | 7 Comments »

SD10: Kuo supporters’ flier includes photo of… me

It seems supporters of Peter Kuo, the Republican candidate in the 10th State Senate District, were handing out fliers at the Fremont BART station this morning touting his stance against letting transit workers go on strike:

(Click to enlarge:)
pro-Kuo flier_1_001

I guess their enthusiasm eclipsed their good sense. See that photo in the strip across the top, second from the left? Those aren’t angry commuters – it’s me and my colleague Thomas Peele, as we completed our “Great BART Strike Race of 2013.” The photo, by Bay Area News Group photographer Karl Mondon, was lifted without permission.

“We didn’t create it – it wasn’t even our idea,” Scott Carpenter, Kuo’s communications director, said Wednesday. “There’s a group of supporters that has been volunteering from time to time… and they kind of took it upon themselves to put those out and distribute them.”

Carpenter said those volunteers were probably inspired by an email Kuo sent to his supporters last week reiterating his condemnation of the BART strikes.

“Unions are undermining the very purpose for which BART was created in 1961 – to provide a cost-effective transportation system that enables residents of the region to quickly commute to their place of employment or other desired locations,” Kuo wrote. “I pledge to fight for commuters against the power of unions. Bay Area residents cannot afford to allow BART workers from holding our communities hostage again.”

Kuo, of Santa Clara, is vying with Assemblyman Bob Wieckowski, D-Fremont, for the Senate seat about to be vacated by Senate Majority Leader Ellen Corbett, D-San Leandro, who is term-limited out.

Posted on Wednesday, October 15th, 2014
Under: 2014 general, Bob Wieckowski, California State Senate | 1 Comment »

Neel Kashkari’s new TV ad depicts drowning child

Republican gubernatorial candidate Neel Kashkari‘s new television ad uses imagery of a drowning child to highlight what he says is Gov. Jerry Brown’s “betrayal” of California public school students:

Kashkari’s campaign says the ad will start airing statewide on Tuesday.

Posted on Monday, October 13th, 2014
Under: 2014 general, Gov. Jerry Brown, Jerry Brown, Neel Kashkari | 1 Comment »

Money update: SD10, AD15, AD16, AD25 & AD28

The deadline for reporting campaign finance activity from July 1 through Sept. 30 was this week. Here’s a look at how fundraising and spending stacked up in some of the Bay Area’s notable state legislative races:

10th State Senate District – Republican Peter Kuo of Santa Clara reported raising $88,050 and spending $88,772 in the third quarter, leaving him with $45,149 cash on hand and $30,000 in debt – money he has lent his own campaign – as of Sept. 30. Assemblyman Bob Wieckowski, D-Fremont, reported raising $125,861 and spending $108,542 in this year’s third quarter, leaving him with $59,423 cash on hand as of Sept. 30. But almost all of that money is already spent: Wieckowski also reported $57,177 in debts.

15th Assembly District – Democrat Elizabeth Echols of Oakland reported raising $205,536 and spending $121,740 in the third quarter, leaving her with $153,480 cash on hand but $61,779 in debts – including $19,500 she lent her own campaign – as of Sept. 30. Democrat Tony Thurmond of Richmond reported raising $184,940 and spending $146,048 in the third quarter, leaving him with $94,425 cash on hand but $37,971 in debts as of Sept. 30.

16th Assembly District – Republican Catharine Baker of Dublin reported raising $157,981 and spending $99,003 during the third quarter, leaving her with $147,625 cash on hand but $13,771 in debt as of Sept. 30. She’s far outraised and outspent by Democrat Tim Sbranti of Dublin, who reported raising $663,842 and spending $531,059 in the third quarter, leaving him with $197,672 cash on hand but $31,988 in debt as of Sept. 30.

25th Assembly District – Democrat Kansen Chu of San Jose reported raising $81,689 and spending $66,209 in the third quarter, leaving him with $57,675 cash on hand but $1,531 in debt as of Sept. 30. Republican Bob Brunton of Fremont has reported no fundraising other than the $8,000 he gave his own campaign in the year’s first quarter.

28th Assembly District – Democrat Evan Low of Campbell reported raising $80,926 and spending $134,723 during the third quarter, leaving him with $259,364 cash on hand but $1,329 in debts as of Sept. 30. Republican Chuck Page of Saratoga reported raising $70,087 and spending $50,728 in the third quarter, leaving him with $22,052 cash on hand but $18,880 in debt – money he loaned his own campaign – as of Sept. 30.

Posted on Wednesday, October 8th, 2014
Under: 2014 general, Assembly, California State Senate, campaign finance | No Comments »

AD15: Big IE money spent to support Thurmond

15th Assembly District candidate Elizabeth Echols is complaining that political committees “funded by oil and tobacco interests” are spending generously on independent-expenditure mailers in support of her opponent, Tony Thurmond.

And that’s true, although many other interests are behind the spending as well.

Tony ThurmondElizabeth Echols, 54, of Oakland, is former regional administrator for the Small Business Administration; Thurmond, 46, is a former Richmond councilman and former West Contra Costa County School Board member. The two Democrats are vying to succeed Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner, D-Berkeley, who is term-limited out of office at this year’s end.

The “Alliance for California’s Tomorrow, a California business coalition” has reported spending $68,722 in the past week on mailers, research and polling to support Thurmond.

Records show the Alliance raised $713,980.69 in the first half of this year, and has reported no large contributions since. Among the money it collected this year was $125,000 in May from the California Independent Petroleum Association PAC, $90,000 in May from Philip Morris USA, and $25,000 in January from the Occidental Oil & Gas Corp. So, oil and gas accounted for about a third of the committee’s income; the rest came from a wide array of companies, unions and Indian tribes.

Another committee, Keep CA Strong, has reported spending $29,848 on Thurmond’s behalf in the past week.

It reported no cash on hand at mid-year, but reports having received $75,000 on Sept. 19 from the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America Independent Expenditure Committee; $200,000 on Sept. 22 from the California Independent Petroleum Association PAC, $25,000 on Sept. 26 from the California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee; and $2,450 on Sept. 27 from the aforementioned Alliance for California’s Tomorrow. Here, then, the oil industry’s share is bigger.

Echols“It’s very unusual for this district for this kind of money to come in – these are big corporate interests that don’t spend money idly” especially in so solidly progressive a district, Echols said Tuesday. “I believe they know I will be an effective champion for the environment, for funding our schools and for economic opportunity.”

She acknowledged the Alliance has a “broad mix” of backers, but she said she finds “more telling” the Keep CA Strong committee’s limited donor base and money-in, money-out model.

The independent spending notwithstanding, Echols said her campaign has “good, strong resources and a message that is resonating well with voters.” She might not be able to match the outside spending dollar for dollar, she said, “but I believe we will be the stronger campaign in the end.”

Thurmond said Tuesday he “was really caught off-guard” by the spending: “I don’t even know who these groups are.”

“The irony is, I’m the candidate who’s taken a pledge not to take money from cigarette companies – I’m a social worker, I work with youth,” he said, noting he also voted against oil interests while on Richmond City Council. “Whatever they’re doing, they’ve done independently. My record is clear, my entire campaign is based on progressive values.”

Thurmond said the spending “really speaks to the need for reforming how politics works and overturning Citizens United so we have less special interest money in politics.”

Posted on Tuesday, September 30th, 2014
Under: 2014 general, Assembly | 5 Comments »

Actors tout Tuck for schools superintendent

Marshall Tuck, the Los Angeles school-reform advocate who’s running neck and neck with incumbent Tom Torlakson for superintendent of public instruction, has added a little star power to his campaign.

Tuck’s new two-and-a-half minute campaign video features actors Joel McHale, Dax Shepard, Kristen Bell and Adam Scott sitting down with the candidate in a “strategy session.”

My favorite line (of course): “You’ve been endorsed by the San Francisco Chronicle. Who gives a s—?”

Tuck’s campaign issued a news release saying that while the video provides some humor amid a heated campaign, it takes a serious look at key issues facing the race.

“As a parent, I want to make sure we give every child access to a great education,” Bell said in the news release.

Celebrity factoid: Of these four actors, only Scott is a California native, born in Santa Cruz. Bell and Shepard hail from Detroit’s suburbs, McHale from Seattle.

UPDATE @ 11:47 A.M.: Good questions from Twitter follower Steven Herbert: “Do any of them have children old enough to be in public schools? If so, how many are in public schools?”

Bell and Shepard have one daughter, Lincoln Bell Shepard, born in March 2013, and they’re now expecting a second child; they live in the Los Feliz section of Los Angeles. Scott and his wife, Naomi, have two children, son Graham, 7, and daughter Frankie, 5, and live in LA’s Hollywood Hills section. McHale and his wife, Sarah Williams, have two sons, Eddie, 8, and Isaac, 6; they live in Hollywood Hills as well.

I don’t know what schools the kids attend.

Posted on Tuesday, September 30th, 2014
Under: 2014 general, education, Tom Torlakson | 2 Comments »

Tim Donnelly praises Brown for signing DNA law

Somebody note the date and time: Assembly Tim Donnelly, the conservative former gubernatorial candidate who spent much of the spring trashing Gov. Jerry Brown, just said something nice about… Gov. Jerry Brown.

Brown on Friday signed Donnelly’s AB 1697, the DNA Protection Act, which prohibits using the state’s criminal-justice DNA database from being used as a source of material for testing, research or experiments by any person, agency or entity seeking to find a causal link between genetics and behavior or health.

Tim Donnelly“I would like to thank Governor Brown for standing with me once again to defend the civil liberties of all Californians,” Donnelly, R-Twin Peaks, said in a news release. “California will continue to use DNA samples for forensics, missing persons, collecting evidence or other legal means. With AB1697 now law, we have prevented government from abusing our privacy. We have protected the civil rights of all Californians from this high tech tyranny.”

Donnelly said the new law is critical to protecting those who’ve been arrested from the government’s genetic snooping.

“Currently, the government of California has hoarded over 1.8 million DNA samples,” he said. “As the cost of DNA sequencing decreases and the ability to process large amounts of data increases, the state has the unprecedented ability to link genetics with criminal activity. While this may sound like the movie Minority Report, it is no longer science fiction. Thanks to AB1697 becoming law, the DNA of every Californian will be safe from being violated by an ever-intrusive government.”

The bill certainly wasn’t controversial. The Assembly passed it 78-0, and the state Senate passed it 33-0.

Posted on Tuesday, September 23rd, 2014
Under: Assembly, Gov. Jerry Brown, Tim Donnelly | No Comments »