2010 or 2012 for same-sex marriage measure?
A new poll finds support for same-sex marriage in California evenly split, and finds a ballot measure to overturn Proposition 8’s constitution ban would have a slight advantage in 2012 over 2010.
When asked, “Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose allowing same-sex couples to be legally married,” 47 percent say favor and 48 percent say oppose, according to the poll commissioned by a coalition of pro-same-sex-marriage groups. Support for any given ballot measure depends on the specific language of that measure, the survey found; for example, results show support increases if the language specifically includes a provision that says no clergy will be required to perform a service that goes against their faith.
Modeling turnout scenarios for 2010 and 2012 show a small advantage for same-sex marriage supporters in a 2012 electorate, based on a considerably higher turnout expected in 2012 due to the Presidential election. But the survey notes the added voters drawn to a presidential vote are divided in their views on same-sex marriage: younger voters tend to support it, but older white, black and Latino religious voters would somewhat cancel them out. Overall, the survey projects same-sex marriage supporters would have a 1- to 2-percentage point advantage in 2012 over 2010.
Of course, that also could be influenced by other ballot measures that could affect 2010’s voter turnout and composition, as well as by top-of-the-ticket concerns: The Democratic gubernatorial nominee in 2010 is likely to be a same-sex marriage advocate, while it’s unclear what stance President Barack Obama would take during his presumed 2012 re-election campaign.
The poll, conducted by Goodwin Simon Victoria Research and David Binder Research, surveyed 1,794 California voters – 1,000 randomly selected voters who took part in last November’s election or have registered since then, plus oversamples with blacks, Latinos, Asian/Pacific Islanders and union members – between May 8 and May 15. Coalition members said they chose to do the survey before the Supreme Court issued its May 26 ruling to uphold Proposition 8 so that the results would reflect a “resting pulse” of the electorate, free of emotions riled by the ruling.
More on what it means to the same-sex marriage advocates, after the jump…
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Posted on Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009
Under: 2010 election, same-sex marriage | No Comments »





