Flashreport blogger Jon Fleischman posted this item late last night citing a very interesting push poll memo from the 19th Congressional District, where former GOP Rep. Richard Pombo has declared his candidacy for the seat held by retiring Rep. George Radanovich.
Dave Gilliard, the campaign consultant for the other major Republican candidate in this race, state Sen. Jeff Denham of Merced, commissioned the poll from Public Research Strategies based in Redondo Beach.
Gilliard and the pollster conclude that Pombo is bad for the Republican Party, citing high negative poll numbers after voters were informed about a variety of Pombo’s problems when he served as the 11th District representative.
“Based on these survey findings, it is our opinion that former Congressman Richard Pombo is very unlikely to win the Republican Primary in the 19th District,” the memo said. “Further, if he were to win the primary election, it is our opinion that much of the Republican base would not stay with him and make Republicans have to spend significant money to keep this Republican Congressional seat in the Republican hands even with the very comfortable registration margin.”
As Jon writes, “Who says politics isn’t a contact sport?”
Read on for Gilliard’s email, which you can find in its entirety and all of Jon’s comments on FlashReport. Or you can click through at the bottom of this post, where I have pasted the full memo text.
TO: Interested Parties
FR: Dave Gilliard
Public Opinion Strategies just completed a poll in CA 19. A memo from the pollster is attached. The bottom line is that Jeff Denham starts with strong name ID and positives as well as a significant lead on the ballot test. When voters learn of a single fact – the Radanovich endorsement of Denham – Denham’s lead over Pombo expands to 38 % to 11 %. That lead becomes insurmountable once voters learn about both major candidates. It is also clear that Richard Pombo’s candidacy is very harmful to the Republican Party in 2010.
Former California Secretary of State Bill Jones says he will not run the congressional seat held by retiring Rep. George Radanovich, R-Mariposa.
Jones had been talking with politicos over the past few days about entering the race. But in this email sent out a few minutes ago, Jones says his personal and business responsibilities would leave him with insufficient time to serve in Congress.
Radanovich has already endorsed state Sen. Jeff Denham, R-Merced. Former Rep. Richard Pombo of Tracy announced his candidacy on Tuesday and former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson is considering a run.
Here is what Jones had to say:
FRESNO- It has been an honor to have served the people of California over the last 20+ years. During that time my highest priority has been to deliver on the reforms needed for our state in a way that reflects honor and integrity for the Central Valley.
Given the enormous challenges we currently face on our economy and water, over the past few days I have seriously considered becoming a candidate for the 19th Congressional District. Based on my past service, the most important criteria in my decision was the time commitment required in order to overcome these challenges and achieve the reforms that we need to build a strong economy for the future. It quickly became clear that due to my current business responsibilities and my very important family commitments with five wonderful grandchildren, I do not have the time required today to represent the people of the 19th Congressional District in the manner that they need and deserve in Washington, D.C.
I want to extend my deepest appreciation to everyone for your outpouring of support over the last few days. On behalf of Maurine and my family, we want to extend our best wishes to the entire Radanovich family who will stay in our thoughts and prayers both now and in the future.
Steve Ding, top aid to former Rep. Richard Pombo, sent out this email alert today about his boss’ re-entry into politics as a candidate for the 19th Congressional District. Incumbent Rep. George Radanovich, R-Fresno, recently announced his retirement.
Here is Ding’s note:
First off, Happy New Year! I’m looking forward to a great year!
I wanted to let everyone know before the official announcement that Richard Pombo is officially running for the 19Th CD currently occupied by George Radanovich. The official announcement will be made tomorrow. Richard has already been working the new district and lining up support.
At this current juncture its going to be a high profile primary. Other candidates who have announced include State Senator Jeff Denham and former mayor of Fresno Jim Patterson. Obviously we would love to have all the help and support you can give. Your advice and council are also needed. I’m still in the process of putting the team together. I don’t know how I could match the old Pombo team but I will try. Hopefully, some of you will join us. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to call.