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Bad week hasn’t hurt Trump in California

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a rally at the Milwaukee Theatre Monday, April 4, 2016, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

 (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Click here for my story in today’s paper on a new Field Poll that shows Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz 39 percent to 32 percent.

Trump is still doing well among men, old folks, high school grads and Republicans who voted for Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall. Cruz’s base here are women, evangelicals and girly men. John Kasich, who actually has Arnold’s endorsement, doesn’t have much to flex. He is the top choice for just 18 percent of likely voters.

To see the entire poll, click on this: Field Poll

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Field Poll: Gov. Jerry Brown still riding high

If he maintained poll numbers like this, California Gov. Jerry Brown would be hard to beat for a fifth term.

That’s impossible under the state’s term limits, of course. But a new Field Poll finds Brown – who already has served as governor longer than anyone in the Golden State’s history – remains remarkably popular.

Jerry BrownThe poll found 56 percent of California voters approve of Brown’s job performance while 32 percent disapprove and 12 percent offered no opinion. That’s within the poll’s margin of error from Brown’s all-time high during this second go-around as governor; he hit 59 percent approval in April 2014.

Even more California voters – 69 percent – agreed Brown “has the right experience to deal with the problems facing California,” the Field Poll found, a sentiment that extends across party lines: 79 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of nonpartisans and 55 percent of Republicans agreed.

Majorities also agreed Brown “has the vision to lead California into the future” (54 percent) and “deserves credit for turning around the state’s finances” (53 percent).

However, when asked to consider three negative statements that have been made about Brown, 57 percent agreed with one of them: that he “favors too many big government projects that the state cannot afford right now.” (Hey, high-speed rail and Delta tunnels – they’re looking at you.)

Brown’s approval ratings are highest in the Bay Area (69 percent) compared to other regions of the state; among voters with post-graduate education (64 percent) compared to other education levels; among African Americans (67 percent) compared to other races/ethnicities; among ages 40-49 and 65 or older (59 percent) compared to other age groups; and among men (59 percent) compared to women (53 percent).

The poll of 1,241 California voters was conducted Jan. 26 through Feb. 16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

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73% of California voters disapprove of Congress

Californians still hold a dismal view of how Congress is doing its job, and more believe that Republican control of both chambers is a bad thing than a good thing for the nation, a new Field Poll found.

The poll clearly reflects the state’s heavily Democratic leaning; 43 percent of California’s voters are Democrats, while 28 percent are Republicans and 23 percent declare no party preference.

nobody likes CongressNearly three-fourths – 73 percent – of California voters now disapprove of Congress’ job performance, while 18 percent approve and 9 percent had no opinion, the poll found. Sadly, that’s not even close to the worst it ever has been – disapproval peaked at 86 percent back in September 2011, shortly after that summer’s debt-ceiling crisis.

Californians have a brighter, albeit still negative, view of the job congressional Democrats are doing – 53 percent disapproval and 35 percent approval, with 12 percent expressing no opinion. That’s roughly the same as where the Field Poll has pegged it over the past five years, and heavily influenced by party affiliation – only 35 percent of Democrats disapprove of how Congressional Democrats are doing, while 79 percent of Republicans and 55 percent of nonpartisans disapprove.

Similarly, 67 percent of Californians disapprove of the job congressional Republicans are doing while 23 percent approve and 10 percent have no opinion, a ratio that hasn’t changed much over the past eight years.

But unlike their Democratic counterparts, a plurality of California’s Republican voters – 47 percent – disapproves of the job being done by congressional Republicans, while only 40 percent approve. Disapproval of congressional Republicans increases to 82 percent among Democrats and 63 percent among nonpartisans.

Finally, the poll found 49 percent of registered California voters believe Republican control of both houses of Congress is a bad thing, while 37 percent think it’s a good thing. Democrats heavily lean toward believing it’s bad (71 percent to 15 percent), while nonpartisans are more split (49 percent to 34 percent). Republicans think it’s a good thing, 73 percent to 17 percent.

The Field Poll surveyed 1,241 California voters Jan. 26 through Feb. 16; the poll has a margin of error or plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

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Field Poll memo: Why GOP wave missed California

California was an exception to the Republican wave that swept the nation in Nov. 4’s low-turnout midterm election in part because Californians are happier than the rest of the nation with how things are going, according to a new Field Poll memo.

Mark DiCamillo“At the time of this year’s election, the average of national polls showed that more voters disapproved than approved of the job President Obama was doing 53 percent to 42 percent,” wrote Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo. “By contrast, in California more voters approved than disapproved of the job their chief executive Governor Jerry Brown was doing 58 percent to 36 percent. In addition, the direction of change in voter assessments was moving in the opposite directions, with Obama’s ratings trending downward, and Brown’s on the rise.”

Likewise, “for some time now many more Americans have felt the country was seriously off on the wrong track than have believed it was moving in the right direction,” DiCamillo wrote. “The average of the national polls at the time of the election showed that 66 percent of U.S. voters felt the country was seriously off on the wrong track, while just 28 percent felt it was moving in the right direction.”

But in California, the most recent Field Poll “showed slightly more voters here believing the state was heading in the right direction than seriously off on the wrong track, 43 percent to 41 percent, and that over time it was trending in the positive direction.”

Nationally, 81 percent disapprove of Congress’ job performance while just 13 percent approve. “In California, while voters have not been wild about the job performance of the state legislature – the most recent Field Poll shows 34 percent approving and 42 percent disapproving – views about its performance have been improving compared to prior years,” DiCamillo noted.

Exit polls conducted by Edison Media Research for NBC and CNN found that when voters nationwide were asked about the influence that President Obama had on their voting preferences in their local House races, more said theirs was a vote against President Obama (33 percent) than said it was a vote in support of him (19 percent), while the rest said he wasn’t a factor. But the reverse was true when California voters were asked the same question, with more saying their House vote was a vote in support of Obama than a vote against him, 28 percent to 22 percent.

And when asked to assess the nation’s health insurance reform law, slightly more voters nationwide (49 percent) felt the law went too far than said it was about right or didn’t go far enough (46 percent) – but here in California, the exit poll showed a 54 percent majority saying the law was about right or didn’t go far enough, while just 38 percent felt it went too far.

The exit polls also found Californians likelier than the nation as a whole to support the government’s response to the Ebola crisis and to support same-sex marriage.

Not only is California’s electorate less white than the rest of the nation’s, but while exit polls showed whites across the nation generally voted Republican in House races by a wide margin, California’s white voters split evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the contests for six partisan down-ballot statewide offices. Combined with wider margins for Democrats in the population-rich coastal counties than for Republicans in the sparser-populated inland counties, this was a recipe for a blue victory, DiCamillo wrote.

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Field Poll: Voters unhappier with own lawmakers

California voters are growing less satisfied with their own members of Congress, a new poll shows – and that might be bad news for Democrats.

The Field Poll finds 40 percent of registered voters disapprove of the job their own House member is doing in Washington, while 36 percent approve. That’s a pronounced change from April, when 44 percent approved and 33 percent disapproved.

Polls often show voters are ready to “throw the bums out” of Congress – except for their own “bum,” whom they hold in somewhat higher esteem. But this drop in support for voters’ own House members means incumbents in close races could be at greater risk.

That spells trouble for Democrats, who hold all three of the California House seats deemed “toss ups” by the widely respected Cook Political Report. Rep. Ami Bera, D-Rancho Cordova, faces former GOP Congressman Doug Ose in the 7th Congressional District; Rep. Julia Brownley, D-Thousand Oaks, is opposed by Republican Assemblyman Jeff Gorell in the 26th Congressional District; and Rep. Scott Peters, D-San Diego, is challenged by Republican Carl DeMaio, a former city councilman, in the 52nd Congressional District.

The numbers also probably aren’t welcomed by Bay Area’s only endangered incumbent, Rep. Mike Honda, D-San Jose, who’s challenged by fellow Democrat Ro Khanna, a former Obama administration official from Fremont.

California voters’ overall view of Congress’ job performance remains predictably dismal, with only 13 percent approving and 75 percent disapproving. That’s similar to Field Polls dating back to early 2010, and is shared by Democrats, Republicans and independents alike.

When likely voters statewide are asked which party’s candidate they would likely support in November’s House elections, 46 percent say the Democrat while 38 percent say the Republican and 16 percent are undecided.

The Field Poll’s survey of 1,280 registered voters, conducted Aug. 14 through Aug. 28, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The sample of 467 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

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Field Poll: Obama’s approval rating sinks lower

Californians’ regard for President Obama’s job performance has continued to decline, a new Field Poll finds.

ObamaThe survey, completed last week, found almost as many Californans now disapprove of Obama’s job performance, 43 percent, as approve, 45 percent.

That’s the president’s poorest rating so far from the Golden State, and a far cry from the 62 percent approval rating he had at the start of his second term. And most of the recent decline has been among groups of voters who used to be among his strongest supporters, including a nine-point drop among Democrats, an 11-point drop in Los Angeles County, a 10-point drop among Asian Americans, and seven-point drops in the Bay Area and among strongly liberal voters.

The state generally has a negative view of the nation’s overall direction – 51 percent of voters think it’s seriously off on the wrong track, while 36 percent feel it’s headed in the right direction.

The poll of 1,280 registered voters was conducted Aug. 14 through 28, and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.