6

Bad week hasn’t hurt Trump in California

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a rally at the Milwaukee Theatre Monday, April 4, 2016, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

 (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Click here for my story in today’s paper on a new Field Poll that shows Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz 39 percent to 32 percent.

Trump is still doing well among men, old folks, high school grads and Republicans who voted for Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall. Cruz’s base here are women, evangelicals and girly men. John Kasich, who actually has Arnold’s endorsement, doesn’t have much to flex. He is the top choice for just 18 percent of likely voters.

To see the entire poll, click on this: Field Poll

8

Trump scores with California women — and everybody else

FILE - In this March 11, 2016 file photo, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks in St. Louis. A possibly decisive presidential primary June 7 is going to take Republican candidates where they haven't been before, if they intend to collect as many delegates as possible toward the party's nomination. (AP Photo/Seth Perlman, File)

(AP Photo/Seth Perlman, File)

Lots of coverage today on the Public Policy Institute of California’s new poll that shows Donald Trump jumping out to a sizable lead over Ted Cruz and John Kasich. Here’s my story.

And here is the report: ppic report

First a disclaimer: The poll is focused primarily on statewide issues so when it gets down to just Republicans the margin of error increases. For the Republican primary results it was plus or minus 7.3 percent. The sample size decreases further when you get into Republican subgroups. That said, Trump was favored by every single subgroup measured by the poll, especially women.

Here’s the break down:

GENDER
Candidate          Female     Male
Donald Trump 43%           35%
Ted Cruz           18%            33%
John Kasich     15%             14%

AGE
Candidate          18-54     Over 55
Donald Trump 41%         37%
Ted Cruz            28%        25%
John Kasich      12%         17%

COLLEGE GRAD
Candidate         Yes          No
Donald Trump 36%       40%
Ted Cruz           24%       28%
John Kasich     18%       12%

INCOME
Candidate         <$80k   >$80k
Donald Trump 46%          34%
Ted Cruz           26%          28%
John Kasich     12%           15%

HOW CONSERVATIVE
Candidate           Very      Somewhat
Donald Trump  40%        39%
Ted Cruz            35%         34%
John Kasich      13%         10%

 

 

2

John Kasich is raising funds in Silicon Valley

Republican presidential candidate and Ohio Gov. John Kasich is in Silicon Valley this Monday evening for a fundraising reception.

KasichThe $1,000-to-$2,700-per-head event is at the Woodside home of Kevin Mandia, president of Milpitas-based cybersecurity firm FireEye, and his wife, Julie. The co-chairs are venture capitalists Floyd Kvamme of Saratoga and Ted Schlein of Menlo Park. The event committee includes GOP strategist and former state Sen. Jim Cunneen of San Jose; former Rep. Ed Zschau of Los Altos; venture capitalist Naren Gupta of Woodside; venture capitalist Mark Kvamme of Atherton; and attorney and independent 2012 Assembly candidate Chad Walsh of Los Gatos.

Kasich currently is in ninth place among the GOP presidential contenders with 1.8 percent support, according to an average of recent national polls compiled by Real Clear Politics. In Iowa, he’s in ninth place with 2 percent support, but he has surged to third place in New Hampshire with 11.2 percent support, trailing only Donald Trump (30.2 percent) and Marco Rubio (13.2 percent) in the Granite State.

Billionaire Ron Burkle is scheduled to host a fundraiser for Kasich on Tuesday at Soho House, a private club in West Hollywood, Politico has reported.

10

SF couple hosting John Kasich, Ben Carson

A San Francisco couple’s home seems to be becoming a key stop on the Republican presidential primary campaign trail.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich was at the Nob Hill home of Christine Hughes and Abe Ostrovsky on Thursday for a reception with a few dozen members of the Lincoln Club of Northern California.

Hughes is the club’s vice chairwoman as well as chairwoman of the San Francisco Republican Party, president of the CalWatchdog Foundation, and a former vice president and board member of the conservative Pacific Research Institute. Ostrovsky is chief operating officer at Artkick. The Kasich event was free to club members and their guests.

Hughes and Ostrovsky also are scheduled to host Dr. Ben Carson for a cocktail reception at their home on the evening Tuesday, Sept. 8; tickets cost $250 per head, or $500 for those who want to attend a VIP photo opportunity first.

UPDATE @ 10:45 A.M. FRIDAY: I now hear that Kasich had a fundraiser yesterday morning at the Stanford Park Hotel in Menlo Park, with about 100 people in attendance and venture capitalists Ted Schlein and Floyd Kvamme offering remarks. Kasich reportedly spoke about his successes in Congress and as Ohio’s governor – the latter including a Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act – and said Donald Trump helped all GOP candidates by drawing 24 million viewers to the first debate early this month.

5

Donald Trump wins a South Bay GOP straw poll

Billionaire businessman and reality television star Donald Trump topped the presidential straw poll at the South Peninsula Area Republican Coalition picnic Sunday at the Morgan Estate in Los Altos Hills.

Out of 144 votes cast, Trump got 39 votes, or 27 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush came in second with 27 votes (18 percent), followed by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (20 votes, 13 percent); U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. (16 votes, 11 percent); and Ohio Gov. John Kasich (13 votes, 9 percent). Notably absent from among the poll’s top finishers: former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who used to live less than two and a half miles from the site of Sunday’s picnic.

Poll participants were given the opportunity to mark a second choice as well. Of those whose first choices didn’t finish in the top five, five picked Rubio as their second choice, four picked Bush, four picked Trump, three picked Walker and two picked Kasich.

“The field is still pretty wide open, but there seems a trend in favor of more conservative candidates,” SPARC president John McDonnell said. “The results belie the conventional wisdom that Trump’s appeal will fade among party regulars, but the results also suggest strong support for Jeb Bush, the ‘establishment’ candidate. We can expect some considerable ebb and flow between now and the hard results in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.”

SPARC is affiliated with the California Congress of Republicans, a mainstream conservative grassroots group that’s chartered as part of the state GOP. The keynote speaker at Sunday’s picnic was Assemblywoman Catharine Baker, R-Dublin, the Bay Area’s only Republican voice in Sacramento.

Trump holds an 11-point lead over Bush in the latest average of recent national polls compiled by Real Clear Politics, followed by neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson; Walker; Rubio; U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas; and Fiorina. In Iowa, Trump leads Bush by about 8 points; in New Hampshire, Trump leads Kasich by 14.