What’s left for the Democrats

With the Florida and Michigan delegates seated with half-votes, the new threshhold to clinch the Democratic nomination is 2,118. The Washington Post says Obama has 2,052 (66 short) while Clinton has 1,877 (241 short).

Puerto Rico votes today, with 55 delegates; Clinton is expected to do well there. Montana and South Dakota vote Tuesday, with 16 and 15 delegates respectively; Obama is expected to do well there.

And so it’ll go to the superdelegates. Politico says the superdelegate count now stands at 324.5 for Obama, 279.5 for Clinton and 163 undecided. The undecideds include 86 Democratic National Committee members; 48 House members and 15 U.S. Senators. And of the undecideds, 14 are from California:

  • Rep. Susan Davis, D-San Diego
  • Rep. Sam Farr, D-Carmel
  • Rep. Bob Filner, D-San Diego
  • Rep. Mike Honda, D-San Jose
  • Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Pleasanton
  • DNC member state Sen. Carole Midgen, D-San Francisco
  • DNC member and state Democratic Party campaign advisor Bob Mulholland
  • DNC member, attorney and author Christine Pelosi of San Francisco
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco
  • DNC member and labor union political director John A. Perez of Los Angeles
  • DNC member and retired chemical worker Robert Rankin of Carson
  • DNC member and state party chairman Art Torres
  • DNC member and state official Keith Umemoto of Sacramento
  • DNC member and attorney Steve Ybarra of Sacramento
  • U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday in San Francisco that he, Pelosi and DNC chairman Howard Dean have agreed to try to end the race by the end of this week by urging the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to weigh in.


    Dennis Cardoza flips from Clinton to Obama

    Rep. Dennis Cardoza, D-Atwater, today moved his support as a Democratic superdelegate from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama; Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno cast his lot with Obama today, too.

    The Obama campaign says these endorsements mean Obama has been endorsed by 310.5 superdelegates, and is 59 delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination.

    Cardoza — whose 18th Congressional District touches five Central Valley counties including San Joaquin, where it encompasses more than half of Stockton and all of Lathrop — offered his rationale in a news release issued by the Obama campaign:

    cardoza.jpg“This is the most important election of my lifetime. While I continue to greatly respect and admire Senator Clinton and feel she has made history with her campaign, I believe that Senator Obama will inevitably be our party’s nominee for President. He has proven himself to be a thoughtful, knowledgeable, and inspirational leader and will take America in a new direction, which we desperately need.

    “The Bush Administration has been a huge disappointment. Mr. McCain, while certainly an American hero, represents more of the same failed Bush policies.

    “I am deeply concerned about the contentious primary campaign and controversy surrounding the seating of delegates from Florida and Michigan – two states Democrats need to win in November. I will not support changing the rules in the fourth quarter of this contest through some convoluted DNC rules committee process. Yet, we must find a resolution to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates so these states’ voters are represented at the Convention. I believe we need to avoid this potentially divisive situation by uniting behind one nominee and bringing the party together immediately. Therefore, I have made the decision to support Senator Obama at the Democratic Convention in my role as a super delegate.”

    Democratic voters in Cardoza’s district went 60.3 percent for Clinton, 33.2 percent for Obama in the Feb. 5 presidential primary; the district is registered 48.1 percent Democrat, 34.4 percent Republican and 13.7 percent decline-to-state.

    UPDATE @ 1:15 P.M. FRIDAY: It appears this could be the start of something big: Al Giordano’s The Field reports that Cardoza may be the first of several dozen Democrats to switch from Clinton to Obama in an effort to convince her the race is over.


    Jerry McNerney: Will he or won’t he?

    Will Jerry McNerney throw his superdelegate support to Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama while the race is still on, or will he stay mum?

    Sure, I’m picking on him a bit. He’s not the only East Bay Congressman who has not yet made the choice – Pete Stark hasn’t, either – but McNerney’s the one with the most to lose.

    Stark, D-Fremont, was elected to the House in 1972 and has been there ever since; he now chairs the powerful Ways and Means Health Subcommittee. His 13th Congressional District is registered 53.6 percent Democrat, 18.5 percent Republican. In his past four re-elections, he won with 70.5 percent in 2000, 71.1 percent in 2002, 71.7 percent in 2004 and 74.9 percent in 2006 – stronger each time.

    In February’s presidential primary, Democrats in Stark’s district went 57.3 percent for Clinton, 38.3 percent for Obama. But although Stark’s temper and (ahem) plain speech sometimes get him into hot water, he clearly has little to lose in endorsing either candidate.

    mcnerneyportrait.jpgOn the other hand, McNerney, D-Pleasanton, is a freshman who’s among the National Republican Congressional Committee’s top targets for unseating this year.

    In 2006 he toppled House Resources Committee Chairman Richard Pombo, R-Tracy, in a 53.3 percent to 46.7 percent race. Pombo was beset with accusations of ethics problems, and McNerney was buoyed by a flood of grassroots activists who came in from outside the district to knock doors, work the phones, etc.

    Today, McNerney’s 11th Congressional District – mostly in San Joaquin County, but with swaths of Alameda, Contra Costa and San Joaquin counties – is registered 41.3 percent Republican; 38.5 percent Democrat; and 16.6 percent decline-to-state. As of March 31, he had more campaign money in the bank – $1,153,586 – than his Republican challenger, Dean Andal – $531,817 – but the race is young and nobody expects a Stark-style cakewalk in McNerney’s district.

    Democrats in McNerney’s district in February voted 54.1 percent for Clinton, 39.9 percent for Obama. McNerney in early March told the San Francisco Chronicle he would “make a decision when I have to… I’m going to let the voters decide for themselves.”

    Surely he has formed his own opinion by now, right? It’s hard to believe that any member of Congress hasn’t by now, after all that’s been said and done. It’s easy to believe, however, that McNerney doesn’t want to make a choice now which could put him at odds either with a majority of his district’s voters, or with the activists who helped him win that seat, or with the eventual nominee; it’s easy to believe he doesn’t want his words now to show up in Andal’s ads this fall.

    But the time may be drawing nigh.

    The latest Associated Press figures show Clinton still leads Obama in superdelegate endorsements (268 to 248) but Obama leads in overall delegates (pledged and the officially unpledged superdelegates), 1,736 to 1,602; a candidate needs 2,025 delegates to clinch the nomination. The superdelegate contest has gotten hot in recent days; much is being made of former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew’s superdelegate defection from Clinton to Obama, yet poll numbers show Clinton resurgent.

    So, Congressman McNerney – will you play it safe and wait until the nomination is a fait accompli, or will you speak out about who you believe should be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States?


    California’s final pledged delegate count…

    …based on the Feb. 5 presidential primary results just certified Saturday by Secretary of State Debra Bowen is 204 for Hillary Clinton, 166 for Barack Obama. That’s based on the final certified results by congressional district; if you want to see ’em by county, that’s here.

    Hey, I was close!

    California’s final results are part of how Obama widened his lead over this weekend. For the total, national delegate count, I find CNN‘s interface easiest to follow — they have it at 1,618 (1,411 pledged, 207 superdelegates) for Obama and 1,479 (1,242 pledged, 237 superdelegates) for Clinton. The Associated Press has it slighly different, at 1,617 to 1,498; that’s well presented by the Washington Post.


    Who are the California superdelegates?

    Will the Democratic “superdelegates” — the members of Congress and party apparatchiks — end up determining whether it’s Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton who gets the nomination this year? Quite possibly, if neither gets enough pledged delegates from the state primaries and caucuses (a scenario that seems more and more likely). In California, we’ve got 66 superdelegates, and as I count ’em, I see 26 already saying they’ll support Clinton, 11 for Obama and 29 who haven’t said anything yet, although any could change their mind at any time.

    (Sorry it took me so long to get this list up — other bloggers beat me to it — but finding links for all these DNC members was time consuming!)

    U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif. —- Clinton
    U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. —– none
    Rep. Mike Thompson, D-St. Helena —– Clinton
    Rep. Doris Matsui, D-Sacramento —– Clinton
    Rep. Lynn Woolsey, D-Petaluma —– Clinton
    Rep. George Miller, D-Martinez —– Obama
    Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco —– none
    Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Oakland —– Obama
    Rep. Ellen Tauscher, D-Alamo —– Clinton
    Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Pleasanton —– none
    12th District seat (the late Tom Lantos, most likely will be Jackie Speier) —– none
    Rep. Pete Stark, D-Fremont —– none
    Rep. Anna Eshoo, D-Palo Alto —– Obama
    Rep. Mike Honda, D-San Jose —– none
    Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-San Jose —– Obama
    Rep. Sam Farr, D-Santa Cruz —– none
    Rep. Dennis Cardoza, D-Atwater —– Clinton
    Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno —– none
    Rep. Lois Capps, D-Santa Barbara —– none
    Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Sherman Oaks —– Clinton
    Rep. Howard Berman, D-North Hollywood —– none
    Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank —– Obama
    Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Los Angeles —– none
    Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Los Angeles —– Obama
    Rep. Hilda Solis, D-El Monte —– Clinton
    Rep. Diane Watson, D-Los Angeles —– Clinton
    Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard, D-Los Angeles —– Clinton
    Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Los Angeles —– Clinton
    Rep. Jane Harman, D-Venice —– Clinton
    Rep. Laura Richardson, D-Long Beach —– Clinton
    Rep. Grace Napolitano, D-Norwalk —– Clinton
    Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Lakewood —– Obama
    Rep. Joe Baca, D-Rialto —– Clinton
    Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Anaheim —– Clinton
    Rep. Bob Filner, D-San Diego —– none
    Rep. Susan Davis, D-San Diego —– none
    DNC member Steven Alari —– none
    DNC member Jeremy Bernard —– Obama
    DNC member Rachel Binah —– Clinton
    DNC member Mary Ellen Early —– Obama
    DNC member Maria Echaveste —– Clinton
    DNC member Edward Espinoza —– none
    DNC member Alexandra Gallardo-Rooker —– none
    DNC member Eric Garcetti —– Obama
    DNC member Kamil Hasan —– Clinton
    DNC member Inola Henry —– none
    DNC member Alice Huffman —– Clinton
    DNC member Aleita Huguenin —– none
    DNC member Charles Manatt —– Clinton
    DNC member Carole Midgen —– none
    DNC member Bob Mulholland —– none
    DNC member Mona Pasquil —– Clinton
    DNC member Christine Pelosi —– none
    DNC member John Perez —– none
    DNC member Robert Rankin —– none
    DNC member Mirian Saez —– Clinton
    DNC member Garry Shay —– none
    DNC member Christopher Stampolis —– Clinton
    DNC member Crystal Strait —– none
    DNC member Art Torres —– none
    DNC member Norma Torres —– Obama
    DNC member Keith Umemoto —– none
    DNC member Alicia Wang —– Clinton
    DNC member Vernon Watkins —– none
    DNC member Rosalind Wyman —– Clinton
    DNC member Steve Ybarra —– none