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Boys basketball bubble-watch: Division III

Much like Division II, the drama of Division III is very limited. There will, however, be a full field of 12 teams.
Through Tuesday, 13 teams are qualified to attend Sunday’s NCS seeding meetings at Las Lomas High School.
Here’s a look at who has qualified, and what teams are likely to be fighting for that 12th spot.

Bracket: 12 teams
Qualified teams: 13
Locks (6): Campolindo (22-3), De Anza (20-5), Del Norte (17-3), Windsor (19-8), Sir Francis Drake (18-8), Bishop O’Dowd (16-8).
Somewhat comfortable (3): Miramonte (17-8), Novato (15-11), El Cerrito (13-11)
Sweating it out (4): Analy-Sebastapol (14-13), Alhambra (13-11), Fortuna (11-9), Acalanes (12-13)

The "locks" are based on overall records, potential league championships and strength of schedule. Those six teams may not land the top six seeds, but they are sure to crack the field somewhere.
The three teams listed under "comfortable" don’t necessarily fall in the "lock" category, but aren’t likely to be overlooked by the seeding committee and should fall somewhere between Seeds 6-10.
That leaves four bubble teams fighting for three spots. Though likely to finish with a 14-14 record, Analy is probably the most comfortable of the four bubble teams, having a pair of wins over Windsor. Alhambra should also be in pretty good shape. The Bulldogs are likely to finish 14-11 and boast two wins over Acalanes, which may tip the scales if it comes down to them and the Dons for the final spot. The big knock against Fortuna will be its strength of schedule, though a win against Analy could come in helpful. And finally there is Acalanes, which is eligible thanks to a 7-5 record vs. Division III opponents. The Dons must hope that a pair of wins over Miramonte and  competitive losses to Windsor (49-46 OT) and Bishop O’Dowd (35-32) are enough to sway the seeding committee.

Thursday, we’ll take a quick look at Division IV.

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