NCS wrestling predictions

Today, my North Coast Section wrestling predictions ran in the Times. Readers may wonder how I came up with the picks I made. Here’s a rundown of the process and reasons why I made the predictions I made.

First, No. 1 seeds usually win. Not all of them, but most. The hard part is figuring out which ones I dont’ think will win titles. Foothill’s Kellen Aura (103), Campolindo’s Nikko Triggas (112), Las Lomas’ Jason Welch (152) and Las Lomas’ Jason Swisher (215) were the easiest ones to predict titles for based on how they’ve dominated their respective weight classes, particularly in tough tournaments such as the Mission San Jose Invitational.

Second, I have results from several tournaments and duals I’ve covered throughout the season and have gotten results from events I was not assigned to cover like the Five Counties Invitational on TheCaliforniaWrestler.com. Tournament results and league duals are a good resource to use when comparing wrestlers to each other.

Third, I have a secret source. He is knowedgeable and deeply-involved in the local wrestling scene. I had him break down the contenders in each weight class and he gave me his opinions as to who he thinks will reach the championship round, who will win and which wrestlers not seeded 1 or 2 who are capable of pulling an upset in the semifinals and finals. In the end, I’ll take the credit and the blame for the predictions, but his opinions were heavily considered.

The hardest part of the process was figuring out how the out-of-the-area wrestlers would do. Since the Times does not cover the Redwood Empire, my knowledge of wrestlers from schools like Healdsburg, Analy, Willits and Ferndale (just to name a few) is very limited. A lot of these kids don’t wrestle outside their area so it’s hard to figure out how good they really are. Some wrestle in the Mission San Jose Invitational, but other than that, there’s not much else to go on.

Last year, I was only successful in predicting nine champions out of 14. I tried to pick some upsets but 12 of the 14 No. 1 seeds took home NCS championships. This time, I picked 11 No. 1’s to emerge as champs.