Some of you out there have probably never attended a seeding meeting. Let me share with you some of the things that matter most when it comes to a team getting in and getting a high seed.

You would think that scores of games would matter. A close loss for one team against a team that somebody else blew out. You would think the team that blew out the other team would have an advantage.

Nope. Literally, a win is a win and a loss is a loss to the NCS committee. They hardly care about how two teams competing for a final spot compared in score against another team. So when trying to grasp the seeding, throw that thinking out the window.

NCS tries to get people on the committee that know absolutely nothing about what is going on in football. They want unbiased people. And these people usually follow the criteria down to a T. So, overall record is weighted heavily despite anyone’s argument of strength of schedule (Strength of schedule is considered, but way down the list).

Head-to-head is also weighted heavily. The coaches rankings are another criteria that is often used.  From what I have seen, the coaches rankings are the only way a team with a worse overall record than another team will have an advantage. But these three things matter most. End of story.

Let me give you an example from this season. San Leandro beat Castro Valley 15-14 in overtime and Monte Vista crushed Castro Valley 48-9. The committee won’t see anything of this. They will see it as both teams won. That is why if San Leandro gets in and Monte Vista gets in, the Pirates will likely be ranked higher because of its overall record.

When trying to put the seeding together for yourself, make sure to remember that the people on the committee go in knowing very little. Most haven’t even seen a game. So, you have to put yourself in their shoes.

 Some of you have asked where to find the criteria that the committe follows. Here is the link: http://cifncs.org/sports/football/files/ATLGSEECCH.pdf

This has been shaken up since the last time I posted something. 

 NCS 3-A picture

 Locks: San Ramon Valley (7-0-1, 4-0 EBAL); Newark Memorial (8-0, 5-0 MVAL);  Pinole Valley (6-1-1, 3-1-1 ACCAL); Alameda (6-2, 3-2 ACCAL); College Park (6-2, 5-2 DFAL).

Near locks:  Arroyo (5-3, 2-3 HAAL)

Bubble teams:  American (5-3, 2-2 MVAL); Tennyson (4-4, 2-3 HAAL); Washington (3-4-1, 3-2 MVAL); Clayton Valley (3-5, 2-3 BVAL).

Notable team that doesn’t qualify: Freedom (3-5, 2-4 BVAL) Won’t have at least .500 record in league or against 3-A teams.

My picks/seedings: 1. San Ramon Valley; 2. Newark Memorial; 3. Pinole Valley; 4. Alameda; 5. College Park; 6. Arroyo; 7. Washington; 8. American

A lot of explaining to do here.

Washington’s two forfeit losses to Arroyo and Tennyson could come back to haunt the Huskies. I don’t think it will, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tennyson got the nod over Washington because of the forfeit win.

Washington plays Granada this week and gets American in the finale. At best, Washington finishes 5-4-1 and Granada has a chance to upset the Huskies. If they do, that would make Washington 4-5-1. I don’t see American topping the Huskies. 

Tennyson has Bishop O’Dowd and San Lorenzo left. The Lancers will most likely finish 5-5 but do have a loss to American. This is a weird triangle because American owns a win over Tennyson, Tennyson has the forfeit win over Washington and Washington will likely have the win over American. This triangle will make it easy for Arroyo to get in because the Dons beat Tennyson and have the forfeit win over Washington. If somehow American beats Washington, then I think Tennyson will get that last spot and Washington will be left out.

But let’s continue with the scenerio that Washington beats American.

Two of the three triangle teams (Washington, Tennyson and American) will probably get in. Freedom doesn’t qualify to make the playoffs because it will have a less than .500 record in league play and is 0-2 against 3-A teams. Clayton Valley has a slim chance to get in if it can beat Deer Valley and Antioch to close the season. That would make Clayton Valley 5-5 overall, but I don’t expect them to beat Deer Valley.

Despite playing in the tough BVAL, it doesn’t look good for Clayton Valley because the seeding committe loves overall records and they will likely finish 4-6 at best. Although, the coaches vote could help Clayton Valley out. They qualify for the playoffs because they have a .500 record (1-1) against 3-A teams.

So, to me the two best teams are American and Washington. I think those two will end up in because Tennyson doesn’t have a bigger win than Washington’s tie with San Ramon Valley. If Tennyson would have beaten American earlier this season, they would have been in. But they lost that game by 1 point. I think Tennyson needs to root hard for American to beat Washington to have a chance.

Interesting thought: Washington will be a No. 7 seed because of the two forfeit losses. But they are way better than a No. 7 seed. That means Newark Memorial, if they are No. 2, will play Washington again. The last meeting was a 6-3 Newark win. If SRV is No. 2, then they will play Washington. The last time these two met it was a 35-35 tie. Should be a good first-round matchup with somebody.  

This is why you never give up. Checkout this incredible finish to a college football game.

 http://www.kare11.com/video/player.aspx?aid=56488&bw=

I got to see exact opposite games this week. Friday night I was at San Leandro’s 15-14 thrilling overtime victory over Castro Valley and on Saturday I was at Bishop O’Dowd’s 63-20 romp over Arroyo. That game had nearly 1,000 yards of offense! Incredible. O’Dowd looks tough. They have four tailbacks that are gamebreakers (Che’rod Simpson, Mario Brown, Adonis Smith and Marcus Harrison).

NCS 2-A picture

Locks: Las Lomas (8-0, 7-0 DFAL), Heritage (5-3, 4-2 BVAL), Bishop O’Dowd (6-2, 4-1 HAAL), Encinal (6-2, 4-1 ACCAL), Piedmont (6-2, 4-0 BSAL)

Near locks: Ygnacio Valley(6-2, 4-2 BVAL),  Acalanes (5-3, 5-2 DFAL), Campolindo (6-2, 5-2 DFAL)

Bubble teams: El Cerrito (5-3, 3-2 ACCAL), Miramonte (4-4, 3-4 DFAL), JFK-Fremont (3-5, 2-3 MVAL); Northgate (4-4, 3-4 DFAL)

My picks/seedings: 1. Las Lomas; 2. Bishop O’Dowd; 3. Heritage; 4. Ygnacio Valley; 5. Encinal; 6. Acalanes; 7. Campolindo; 8. Piedmont

After No. 1 and No. 2, the seeding in this division is complicated. Piedmont will likely come in with a solid record, but it hasn’t played the competition that Encinal, Acalanes and Campolindo have. Piedmont lost to Campolindo in the season opener 31-2. Now, Piedmont certainly has improved but the seeding committee doesn’t care about that. They will see 31-2 and probably put Campolindo in front of Piedmont. Although, Piedmont’s impressive overall record could boost them higher.

But I pretty much think these will be the teams that get in. I don’t think any of the bubble teams have a chance to crack the eight teams that I have listed.

Thank goodness for overtime in the Hayward Area Athletic League. I got the chance to watch San Leandro’s thrilling 15-14 overtime victory over Castro Valley on Friday night. Man, what a game.

But, on another note, let’s breakdown the NCS  4-A playoff picture. Things are beginning to shape up after Week 8.

NCS 4-A picture 

Locks: De La Salle (7-0), California (7-1, 4-1 EBAL), James Logan (8-0, 3-0 MVAL)

Near locks: Berkeley (4-3-1, 4-0-1 ACCAL), Pittsburg (4-4, 4-1 BVAL), San Leandro (6-2, 5-0 HAAL).

Bubble teams: Mt. Eden (5-3, 4-1 HAAL), Amador Valley (6-2, 2-2 EBAL), Foothill (5-3, 2-2 EBAL), Monte Vista (5-3, 2-2 EBAL), Deer Valley (6-2, 4-2 BVAL)

My picks/seeding: 1. De La Salle; 2. James Logan; 3. California; 4. San Leandro; 5. Amador Valley; 6. Pittsburg; 7. Deer Valley; 8. Berkeley

My take: The EBAL could be on the outside looking in when it is all said and done. Four spots are likely to go to league champions(JL, SL, Pitt, Berkeley) plus De La Salle makes five spots gone. That means only three spots are availabe for at-large hopeful teams. And California at 7-1 right now are a lock for a spot. That means, the way I see it, two spots are up for grabs going into the final two weeks.

Amador Valley gets Foothill and California in the next two games. A win over Foothill or California figures to get them into the playoffs. Amador should be able to get that done.

Deer Valley’s win over Granada earlier this season might be enough to get them into the playoffs. Granada own a win over Amador and if Amador knocks off Foothill or Cal, that will make Deer Valley’s win even bigger. If Amador beats Foothill, that could spell the end for the Falcons. Monte Vista would be the only threat to Deer Valley getting the final spot. If I had my own decision, I would put Monte Vista in. But I have a feeling NCS won’t see it that way.

Monte Vista and Foothill play each other this week. The loser of this one will probably not reach the playoffs. And if Amador beats Foothill, and Foothill beats Monte Vista, that will be it for Monte Vista.

One of the questions I get the most throughout the prep football season is, how do you guys vote on the poll and why is (fill in the blank), ranked above/below (fill the blank again).

I usually try to go through the whole system, but let me use this forum to lay it out in the open, along with my feelings on the poll, having been a writer with 16 years of voting on prep football, basketball, baseball and softball polls.

Honestly, I think the polls are a bit of a joke. Here are some of the problems.

 1) Writers are very territorial for their respective teams. This is not necessarily a bad thing in prep sports, as people want to read about their respective teams in their area and all want to believe their teams are the best. When it comes to polls, writers who cover the same teams week in and week out tend to give them a little more support. I for one am guilty of it and anyone who says they’re not is not telling the truth.

2)  The writers get too wrapped up in the records of the teams and not with the strength of schedule. There are some schools and leagues where the competition is not very strong and teams run up 6-0 or 7-0 records without playing anyone halfway decent. Does this warrant a higher ranking than say a team like Pittsburg, who is 4-3, but counts losses to Valley Christian-San Jose and Logan among their three defeats? I say no and continue to vote Pitt around the top 10. You can’t expect me to believe Pitt wouldn’t walk through half the leagues in the East Bay without a loss. The Pirates deserve to be a top 10 team, even with their record. What about a team like Granada? The Mats have only two wins, but have lost to Deer Valley, Vintage, Monte Vista, San Ramon Valley and Foothill. The loss to San Ramon was only 19-9 and they scored 35 points on Monte Vista. The Mats would be a threat to win at least four leagues in the East Bay this year, but they suffer because they are in the EBAL.  This brings out the problem where writers don’t vote for the deserving teams, but rather the best records.

3) Strength of league is ignored. Heading into the EBAL season, the league had teams ranked Nos. 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7.  When they start beating up on each other _ what else did you think would happen _ some voters started questioning how strong the league actually was. People, it’s pretty basic. Someone is going to win and someone is going to lose. How do you penalize the No. 6 team for losing to No. 3 in a good game? You shouldn’t, but others don’t seem to understand those logical thoughts. 

4) Only one poll is also a problem. In the 80’s we had two polls, with the teams split based on size. The best idea would be for us to have a 4-A/3-A poll, then a 2-A a poll, voting only for the top 10. At least someone other than De La Salle would be able to make a claim to being No. 1.

5) The De La Salle factor. Anyone else tired of De La Salle always being No. 1 in the poll? The Spartans are a tremendous team every year and fully deserving of all the recognition they have gotten. But it gets very boring every week voting in the poll and putting DLS at the top. And as long as Lad is running the show, it’s not going to change. If you honestly think it’s going to change this year, then come talk to me, I’ve got some property in Florida I’d love to sell you. 

 All in the all, polls are a good idea, as they do provoke some discussion. But don’t take them too seriously.  Generally speaking, the majority of people voting on the poll don’t take the time they should to look at all the leagues and the respective strength of schedule. They see wins and losses and nothing else. It’s far from a perfect system and it wouldn’t be too tough to make it better. Here’s hoping it happens in the near future.

Dennis Miller, Tri-Valley Herald sports editor

It is time to address this overrated talk that is going around. I am getting comments and e-mails about teams that some of you feel are overrated. So far I have heard a majority of you say Newark and James Logan are overrated. Hmmm, these two teams have something in common and I can’t figure it out.

Oh, I got it. They are both Mission Valley Athletic League schools.

Everybody is quick to downgrade MVAL teams. Let me give you my opinion on all of this.

James Logan is the real deal this year. I have seen California play and the Grizzlies could not take down the Colts. San Ramon Valley is a North Coast Section 3-A school so we don’t have to even think about James Logan (NCS 4-A) playing them this year.

The Colts already took down Monte Vista, which will end up the EBAL champs or in second place. Who does that leave to beat James Logan? Oh, and De La Salle doesn’t count.

My take: Not overrated.

Newark Memorial is getting a ton of credit for basically one game: Washington coming back from 14 points in the final four minutes to tie San Ramon Valley. And then Newark beating Washington 6-3 has kept the Cougars at No. 4 in the East Bay Super Poll. Newark is undefeated.

The Cougars, until last week’s trouncing of Irvington, has shown they play down to their opponents’ level at times. That does set off an alarm in my head that Newark still needs to prove itself.

However, I do agree with the Cougars being No. 4 in our poll because of all the parity this year. I think every team, No. 3 - No. 10 in the poll, is so close in talent that they could all beat eachother on any given Friday.

 Maybe in the end we will find out that Newark is too high in the poll, but for now Newark is undefeated and knocked off a team that tied our No. 3 team in the poll. They are No. 4 until somebody below steps up and does something convincing. Nobody has done that yet. And I don’t think anyone will until the playoffs.

So is Newark overrated?

My take: The red flag is up in my head, but even if they are overrated, it isn’t by much. 

Take a look at this excellent feature on former San Leandro High football coach Joe Martin.

For those that don’t remember, Martin was forced to resign from San Leandro High in 1991 because of complaints by students that included degrading remarks about the cheerleaders, racist and sexist comments and remarks that promoted drinking.

Martin would eventually file a lawsuit and be awarded more than $645,000 in compensation, attorney fees and costs. Go checkout why at the link below.

http://recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071021/A_NEWS/710210318

Some were wondering if Mission San Jose forfeited against Wilson Prep last week. The answer is no. The game was moved from Friday to Saturday because Mission thought the game was originally scheduled for Saturday and did not showup on Friday.

The two teams battled it out on Saturday. Mission got its first win of the season 10-6 against Wilson Prep.

The top two teams in the East Bay this year are pretty obvious. No. 1 De La Salle and No. 2 James Logan. The two teams are so far ahead of the rest of the pack.

The Spartans are of course in a world of their own at No. 1. But the Colts are light years ahead of any other team in the East Bay besides the Spartans. The rest of the football world seems to be on a lower level this season.

San Ramon Valley, California and Newark Memorial seem to be the next best teams in the area. But these squads are no where close to matching the talent that James Logan has. Seems like we are going to go old school this year. DLS-James Logan in the NCS 4-A East Bay title game. 

Do the Colts stand a chance? Probably not. But one interesting thing to look at is Colts coach George Zuber. The guy was the defensive coordinator for the 2005 San Leandro team, which held De La Salle to just 14 points in the title game. Not the same defense at Logan this year, but just a thought.