This has been shaken up since the last time I posted something.
NCS 3-A picture
Locks: San Ramon Valley (7-0-1, 4-0 EBAL); Newark Memorial (8-0, 5-0 MVAL); Pinole Valley (6-1-1, 3-1-1 ACCAL); Alameda (6-2, 3-2 ACCAL); College Park (6-2, 5-2 DFAL).
Near locks: Arroyo (5-3, 2-3 HAAL)
Bubble teams: American (5-3, 2-2 MVAL); Tennyson (4-4, 2-3 HAAL); Washington (3-4-1, 3-2 MVAL); Clayton Valley (3-5, 2-3 BVAL).
Notable team that doesn’t qualify: Freedom (3-5, 2-4 BVAL) Won’t have at least .500 record in league or against 3-A teams.
My picks/seedings: 1. San Ramon Valley; 2. Newark Memorial; 3. Pinole Valley; 4. Alameda; 5. College Park; 6. Arroyo; 7. Washington; 8. American
A lot of explaining to do here.
Washington’s two forfeit losses to Arroyo and Tennyson could come back to haunt the Huskies. I don’t think it will, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tennyson got the nod over Washington because of the forfeit win.
Washington plays Granada this week and gets American in the finale. At best, Washington finishes 5-4-1 and Granada has a chance to upset the Huskies. If they do, that would make Washington 4-5-1. I don’t see American topping the Huskies.
Tennyson has Bishop O’Dowd and San Lorenzo left. The Lancers will most likely finish 5-5 but do have a loss to American. This is a weird triangle because American owns a win over Tennyson, Tennyson has the forfeit win over Washington and Washington will likely have the win over American. This triangle will make it easy for Arroyo to get in because the Dons beat Tennyson and have the forfeit win over Washington. If somehow American beats Washington, then I think Tennyson will get that last spot and Washington will be left out.
But let’s continue with the scenerio that Washington beats American.
Two of the three triangle teams (Washington, Tennyson and American) will probably get in. Freedom doesn’t qualify to make the playoffs because it will have a less than .500 record in league play and is 0-2 against 3-A teams. Clayton Valley has a slim chance to get in if it can beat Deer Valley and Antioch to close the season. That would make Clayton Valley 5-5 overall, but I don’t expect them to beat Deer Valley.
Despite playing in the tough BVAL, it doesn’t look good for Clayton Valley because the seeding committe loves overall records and they will likely finish 4-6 at best. Although, the coaches vote could help Clayton Valley out. They qualify for the playoffs because they have a .500 record (1-1) against 3-A teams.
So, to me the two best teams are American and Washington. I think those two will end up in because Tennyson doesn’t have a bigger win than Washington’s tie with San Ramon Valley. If Tennyson would have beaten American earlier this season, they would have been in. But they lost that game by 1 point. I think Tennyson needs to root hard for American to beat Washington to have a chance.
Interesting thought: Washington will be a No. 7 seed because of the two forfeit losses. But they are way better than a No. 7 seed. That means Newark Memorial, if they are No. 2, will play Washington again. The last meeting was a 6-3 Newark win. If SRV is No. 2, then they will play Washington. The last time these two met it was a 35-35 tie. Should be a good first-round matchup with somebody.