NCS 4-A picture update through Friday night (Week 9)
Locks: De La Salle (8-0), California (8-1, 5-1 EBAL), James Logan (9-0, 4-0 MVAL), San Leandro (7-2, 6-0 HAAL)
Near locks: Berkeley (4-3-1, 4-0-1 ACCAL), Pittsburg (4-4, 4-1 BVAL)
Bubble teams: Mt. Eden (5-4, 4-2 HAAL), Amador Valley (6-3, 2-3 EBAL), Foothill (5-4, 2-3 EBAL), Monte Vista (6-3, 2-3 EBAL), Deer Valley (6-3, 4-2 BVAL)
My picks/seeding: 1. De La Salle; 2. James Logan; 3. California; 4. San Leandro; 5. Pittsburg; 6. Amador Valley; 7. Deer Valley; 8. Berkeley
My take: After tonight, it looks like Deer Valley and Monte Vista will be fighting it out for the final spot in the NCS 4-A field. This is a tough one because the two only have one common opponent and that is Granada. They both beat Granada. Monte Vista has San Ramon Valley in the final game of the regular season, while Deer Valley will face Clayton Valley.
The reason I have Deer Valley in is because I think Monte Vista will lose to San Ramon Valley and Deer Valley will beat Clayton Valley. That would give Deer Valley a better overall record and that will be the determining factor. I think Monte Vista had a much tougher schedule, but knowing how the seeding meetings work, overall record will be the determining factor.
However, I think if Monte Vista beats San Ramon Valley then that will put them into the playoffs and give them the No. 7 seed despite a Deer Valley win in the final game. But, on the other hand, three teams from the EBAL might be too much of a stretch for the committee.