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NCS 2-A East Bay Baseball Bracketology

By mbower
Wednesday, May 14th, 2008 at 3:25 am in Uncategorized.

I can’t believe it, but it’s already time for baseball playoffs! I love it. With the North Coast Section seeding meeting happening on Sunday (It will be blogged live right here by the way) I decided to give everyone a sneak preview on how the brackets might look. I will start with 2-A East Bay and get the 3-A East Bay soon after.

Let’s start dissecting this 12-team bracket. I count 14 teams qualifying for the 12 spots. In order to qualify for the playoffs you must meet one of the following: have over a .500 record in league or over a .500 record overall or over a .500 record against 2-A opponents.

LOCK ‘EM: St. Mary’s (15-5), Northgate (20-2), Campolindo (14-7), Alhambra (15-7), El Cerrito (15-6),  Albany (14-8), Piedmont (15-6-1), Miramonte (14-8), Las Lomas (12-10), Encinal (11-8), Concord (10-10).

Bubble:   Heritage (9-13), Hercules (6-12-1), Moreau Catholic (12-11)

Note: Dublin (9-14): Its 2-A record stands at 6-9 right now and the Gaels’ league record and overall record aren’t over .500. Dublin could have been a serious threat for the final spot if it qualified. Dublin has beaten Concord twice, Las Lomas and Miramonte _ all teams that will be in the playoffs.

Anyway, I believe the final spot will go to Moreau Catholic or Heritage. I have to think Moreau will earn the spot but you never know. Heritage plays in the BVAL, which is a very strong league. Thanks to your comment, Heritage fan, I now know that I missed Heritages 8-1 win over De La Salle. That is a huge one and could be the difference to put them in over Moreau Catholic. We will see if it is enough.

Predicted seeding: 1. St. Mary’s

                                        2. Northgate

                                        3. Campolindo

                                        4. Encinal

                                        5. El Cerrito

                                        6. Albany

                                        7. Piedmont

                                        8. Alhambra

                                        9. Las Lomas

                                        10. Concord

                                        11. Miramonte

                                       12. Moreau Catholic/Heritage

The teams in the field aren’t too hard to predict, but the seeding is going to be tough. The mess with the DFAL teams makes it hard. They pretty much beat up on eachother and it will make it tough for the committee. I wouldn’t be shocked to be completely off in my predictions.

I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Miramonte with better than a No. 11 seed. They beat Alhambra twice, but then lose to Concord twice. And of course Alhambra has beaten Concord twice and has some good wins (Arroyo,  Encinal). Very confusing stuff. I got a headache trying to figure it out. I am sure glad I am not on that committee on Sunday.

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  • heritage baseball

    heritage beat de la salle last week 8-1

  • Michael Bower

    Oh, nice call. I missed that one. That certainly will help and could close the gap. Should be interesting to see who gets the final spot. Thanks for the information.

  • Ballfan

    Is there an established criteria used by the seeding committee? I assume they’ll look at head-to-head, league standing, record against 2A teams, record against common opponents, but will they also look at less exact measures like ranking in ANG or Chronicle poll? run scored v. runs allowed? record in last 10 games?

  • Ballfan

    Michael: Your predicted seedings look similar to mine, except I have Encinal lower (in bottom 4) and Heritage, Moreau and Concord battling for the final two spots (instead of just Moreau and Heritage fighting for last spot – I could see both Moreau and Heritage in and Concord out. Finally, I think Northgate will get the one seed just edging out St. Mary’s.

  • Kyle Bonagura

    Ballfan,

    The committee won’t look at any newspaper rankings. In the boys soccer meeting earlier in the year, the Washington coach mentioned how his team was ranked, but was told he was not allowed to bring that up.

    Runs scored also won’t factor in the committee’s decison’s either.

  • Ballfan

    Thanks Kyle. Is there any other criteria that you think the Committee probably will or will not consider based on your prior observations? Also, how exactly does the process work? does each coach for the eligible teams make a short presentation? is there Q and A with the committee in open session? are final choices made behind closed doors?

  • Michael Bower

    The coaches each get two minutes max to make a case on why their team should be in the playoffs. After that, coaches can’t speak unless the committee asks them to speak. The committee will think outloud, which makes it a bit agonizing for coaches because they can only listen and can’t talk (although, they always break that rule). The final choices are not made behind doors for baseball. Although, NCS did a trial run during basketball season and had those selections behind closed doors. It seemed to go well so maybe next year all sports will be behind closed doors. But Sunday’s meetings will be out in the open.

  • Michael Bower

    Ballfan,

    I could see it shake out where Northgate is the No. 1 seed as well. Definitely possible. I think Concord will get in, though. They beat a couple of the teams that will be in the field and that should help them.

  • Ballfan

    Thanks for the info on process Michael. You could be right about Concord being a pretty safe bet. My thought was that the DFAL is not as strong this year (more balanced?) and when it came down to taking the 6th team from one league, as opposed to the sole rep from the HAAL or BVAL (at least in 2A), the Committee might want to reach out to those other leagues. We’ll see on Sunday. If Concord is in, I like Heritage for the final spot (big win over DLS) with Moreau left out.

  • Michael Bower

    I got a feeling Heritage is going to get in over Moreau as well. Unless Moreau can find a way to beat Bishop O’Dowd today. I will know that score soon. If that happens, I think that would get Moreau in. We will see, though.

  • Ballfan

    Michael: Concord’s win over CP today is making your prediction look even better.
    Miramonte beating Campo might also shake the order up a bit. Looks like Moreau and Heritage on the bubble. How did Moreau do against O’Dowd?

  • Michael Bower

    Moreau lost 18-0 against O’Dowd.

  • Ballfan

    Will Committee give added weight to how team finished? If so, Moreau may be toast.

  • Ballfan

    Here are my predicitions for seeding by group (top, middle and bottom 3rd):

    Top 4: Northgate, St. Mary’s, El Cerrito, Campo
    Middle 4: Alhambra, Piedmont, Miramonte, Albany
    Bottom 4: Encinal, Los Lomas, Concord, Heritage

  • Michael Bower

    Looks pretty good ballfan. Encinal has some pretty good wins, which is why I have them so high. But I can see them dropping into the 8-12 area as well. Have to wait and see.

  • ErnDog

    BallFan, if you go to the NCS website, they hyave published a bulletin that documents the points of criteria for seedings in the tourney. FYI

  • steve ward

    Alhambra has to be seeded above Campolindo….2A………better overall record and they split the two games played…league record is not a priority

  • Ballfan

    Forgive me for tooting own horn, but except for missing on the Heritage pick (seems to me, Committee missed that one, especially given Moreau’s poor showing against O’Dowd and Heritage’s win against DLS) and switching Alhambra for El Ceritto, I did pretty well in predicting the seeds in 2A.

    Now the hard part, picking the games. Here are my round one predicted winners: Las Lomas (if Peterson throws; if LL tries to save him for Northgate, I think Albany – which has improved as season has progressed – will win. El Ceritto (let’s see if Moreau can prove me wrong and show they belong in the tourney by at least giving EC a good game). Piedmont (if Remer pitches; if Piedmont saves Remer for St. Mary’s, Concord has a good shot at an upset.) Encinal (this is my upset pick, just a hunch as I haven’t seen the Jets play, but they are always tough.)

  • Jimmy Durkin

    Ballfan,
    Remember with Piedmont, they have a pretty good 1A in Bryce Chu. I would figure they would save Remer for St. Mary’s, but Chu isn’t much of (if at all) a dropoff. Remer’s pitched twice against St. Mary’s Matt Flemer and both games have been classics. St. Mary’s won the first 2-1 and the second was 5-4 in nine innings. I’d be drooling over seeing a third showdown between those guys, who both have the utmost respect for each other. So much so, that in their last meeting, when Flemer got the game-winning hit in the bottom of the ninth, Remer was among the first to congratulate him on his nine-inning, 15 strikeout performance.

    Finally, no need to apologize for horn tooting. That’s what blogs are all about!

  • Ballfan

    Jimmy – You are right about Bryce Chu, he’s quite a player. On the other hand, my impression is that Remer is the clear ace on that staff. Given that, there’s a risk holding back your number one for a game that might not be played, especially given the pitching talent in the DFAL. Flemer/Remer part 3 would be a classic though. I guess that’s why the coaches make the big bucks (yeah right) –to make decisions like this one. By the way, classy move by Remer after a hard fought loss – you’ve got to respect that attitude.