NCS 3-A and 2-A East Bay Baseball Predictions
By Michael Bower
Sunday, May 18th, 2008 at 1:55 pm in General.
Baseball
NCS 3-A East Bay
| Selector | No. 16 Castro Valley at No. 1 Liv. | No. 9 Berkeley at No. 8 Irv. | No. 13 Pinole Valley vs. No. 4 Alameda | No. 12 DLS at No. 5 Arroyo | No. 15 College Park at No. 2 Foothill | No. 10 Monte Vista at No. 7 Bishop O’Dowd | No. 14 Liberty at No. 3 Newark | No. 11 Clayton Valley at No. 6 Freedom |
| Michael Bower | Liv. | Irv. | Alameda | Arroyo | Foothill | MV | NM | CV |
| Steve R. Waterhouse | coming soon | coming soon | coming soon | Coming soon | coming soon | coming soon | coming soon | coming soon |
| Jimmy Durkin | Liv. | Berk. | Alameda | DLS | Foothill | MV | NM | Free. |
| Kyle Bonagura | Liv. | Irv. | Alameda | Arroyo | Foothill | MV | NM | CV |
NCS 2-A
| Selector | No. 9 Las Lomas vs. No. 8 Albany | No. 5 El Cerrito at No. 12 Moreau Catholic | No. 10 Concord at No. 7 Piedmont | No. 11 Encinal at No. 6 Miramonte |
| Michael Bower | Las Lomas | El Cerrito | Piedmont | Miramonte |
| Steve R. Waterhouse | Coming soon | Coming soon | Coming soon | Coming soon |
| Jimmy Durkin | Las Lomas | El Cerrito | Piedmont | Miramonte |
| Kyle Bonagura | Albany | El Cerrito | Piedmont | Miramonte |
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May 19th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
I was at the meeting on Saturday and after some thought a few things struck me. There was a point early on where the selectors focused on the teams with 20 wins…basically trying to seed them at or near the top…Livermore, Foothill, Newark and Arroyo qualified at this criteria…however, both Newark and Foothill played more than the requisite 24 games, giving them greater chance to win 20. (Though Newark LOST their last 2 games, so that does not apply so much). Had Foothill played only 24 games, they would have only managed 19 wins.
In addition, try as I might to recall, given that the selectors were looking at number of wins, how did Alameda jump so high with only 17 wins?….the same number as Monte Vista, Clayton Valley and DLS, and 2 less than the likes of O’Dowd. I do not recall that their case was that compelling so as to jump into the elite status ahead of other teams that have a better record or have the same record but play in a “much tougher” league…the ACCAL is sort of grouped with the HAAL and MVAL as below par with the leagues through the tunnel.
It was also curious to me that Monte Vista fell so far after losing their last two, whereas Newark, who did exactly the same thing, felt no pain at all for that stumble. I know this stuff can never be an exact science, and in the end, you just have to win, but there does seem to be some oddities about the process which could/should have been avoided…if record is really key, then teams that play more games should have their result prorated, and if losing the last two games is important for one team, ought it not be for the other as well? I personally believe losing two games at the end, particularly in a playoff type situation, ought to count a lot…finishing strong should be one of the subtle factors to be considered.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Hugo - I like it that you begin by noting that you were there at the meeting. In the past, I have been more forgiving of the Committee figuring that they must of heard or considered something that was not reported in the paper. I assume you were probably not an entirely impartial observer, but still, it’s interesting that even those “in the room” sometimes cannot make out the logic that leads to the choices made. In the end, so long as the right 16 make it in (here, Washington and the players from Logan appear to have the only real beef), then seeding may not matter anyway (except for hosting privileges). Look at Arroyo’s “reward” for a high seed, they get DLS in round one, just like last year.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Ballfan…
I definitely have a bias toward a team in the mix (I am not a coach though), but my comments were not really about how they were treated…and the one thing for sure I’d like to make clear is that there is absolutley no way there was any cooking of the results. In other words, no attempt is made to balance a high seed like Arroyo with a reward of playing DLS…in fact, I think it really is a good fairminded process, though as I said, the subtleties seem to be applied clumsily at times. In fact, if there had been any cooking of the results, you’d always want to make sure that Monte Vista and DLS get to host games since they have nice facilities, and since they neither one got to do that, hard to say the fix was in.
My take is that Alameda and Newark should have slid down a bit, while Monte Vista and O’Dowd should have slid up a bit, based on what I saw and heard. Not the end of the world either way…and no one was left out that really should have been in….so hard to complain much.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Hugo: I didn’t think you were claiming the results were “cooked” and I hope I didn’t give the impression that was my thinking. My point was that I found it helpful to get the perspective from someone actually in the room and not just reading the end result. Your overall conclusion that the process was “fair minded” is encouraging, especially given your firsthand knowledge. Thanks for sharing your insights. My loyalties are now elsewhere, but as far as 3A goes, my rooting interest is with the HAAL: Castro Valley, Arroyo and O’Dowd as I know kids in each of these programs. Those teams are in, so they have a chance. Let’s see how they do.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Hugo, Ballfan, very insightful comments by both of you. Excellent stuff!!!
And, for the record…
Am I pulling for one specific team in NCS 3-A??
Obviously…
But I love “the game”…the history, the strategy…the little things that make “this game” what it is today…
OK…back to NCS.
Couple of thoughts…
Hugo, twenty wins is still 20 wins. The question is “did you reach the plateau?”. If you reached 20, clearly you should be in the upper eshalon of the tournament. The question is…to what degree.
One can only conclude that the Committee had to give serious positive consideration to Alameda for its victories in Japan.
I would like to think they do not read stories in the press…..but what do I know… lol
By the way…DO NOT think that Alameda enjoys that #4 seed. They have to play Pinole Valley. They split during the regular season…both by one run.
Comment last: Let it be said that this years’ Dragons team (Bishop O’Dowd) is a very strong contender for the NCS crown. BUT, relative to seedings, be aware…one common opponent is Liberty. O’Dowd loses 1-0 while Arroyo wins 9-8.
Yes…it can be that close…
May 19th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
For the record…one common opponent OUT OF LEAGUE…
May 19th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
BY THE WAY…STEVE WATERHOUSE…THE GAMES START TOMORROW!!! WE NEED YOUR PREDICTIONS TONIGHT!!!
ITS ALMOST 6 PM ALREADY ON A MONDAY NITE!!!
LMAO
May 19th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
BallFan et al…
I was not saying that any one suggested cooked results, but I have heard things like the committee wanting to have teams in the same league play each other on purpose, or that Arroyo was somehow peenalized with a game against DLS…in truth, De La Salle ought to be the team with concerns as Arroyo seems pretty tough to me. O’Dowd drawing Monte Vista seems a bit of a tough draw for the Dragons, but the bottom line is that they need to beat a good team in order to advance, so they might as well get started. On the other hand, Monte Vista might be a bit miffed that they are playing a road game apparently becasue they dropped their last two games, whereas Newark’s two closing losses does not seem to have been noticed by the selectors.
Also ErnDog…I realize 20 wins is a good yardstick…no problem. Alameda fell 3 short of that target, so I do not see why they got such a good seed when the 17 mark was acheived by a few other teams playing far tougher schedules…playing in Japan? Why is that important or relevant? We don’t know how good those teams are. I think they should have been about a 6 seed…maybe 7.
On principal, I would have ranked BOD just a notch ahead of Arroyo, since they are the automatic bid, but I can easily live with where they put them….you are right, 20 wins is a great season. And mostly, I am happy that O’Dowd and Arroyo are not forced to play each other (unless they meet in the finals!). I think those teams are both capable of a deep run…on the other hand, I would say the same thing about DLS and MV, so those are clearly the must see games in the first round!
May 20th, 2008 at 9:11 am
It’s hard to see how Alameda traveled to Japan over spring break. Given the current value of the dollar, it seems more likely a Japanese high school team came here…
In the end, the seedings are meaningless…it all starts tonight…and yes, of course I’m biased, but it looks like the 3-A title will run through Livermore and Pleasanton…
May 20th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Cowboy: Hornets did go to Japan and supposedly played some very good teams very tough. I am not sure how much that trip impacted their seeding. Another possible reason for the higher than expected seed is that Alameda has a history of doing well in the tourney - that can be attributed to good preparation and good coaching which is repeatable even with different players - hence a higher seeding for a good tourney team. Like you said, and I agree, in 3A seedings don’t matter much. Good luck to the Cowboys - they’ve had a remarkable run so far.
May 20th, 2008 at 9:30 am
I put my predictions for 2A round one in another post. Looks like they belong in this thread. So here they are again (with some qualifiers):
“Now the hard part, picking the games. Here are my round one predicted winners: Las Lomas (if Peterson throws; if LL tries to save him for Northgate, I think Albany - which has improved as season has progressed - will win. El Ceritto (let’s see if Moreau can prove me wrong and show they belong in the tourney by at least giving EC a good game). Piedmont (if Remer pitches; if Piedmont saves Remer for St. Mary’s, Concord has a good shot at an upset.) Encinal (this is my upset pick, just a hunch as I haven’t seen the Jets play, but they are always tough.)”
May 20th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Frigging Watrerhouse, asleep on his predictions again.
May 20th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Where’s the softball predictions? That’s pretty sexist of your staff.
May 20th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
So, Waterhouse has “coming soon” v. “coming soon” in the finals in every division - bet the house on that one!, “coming soon” is stacked! Look for the “coming soon” recruiting scandal/allegations to follow. They’re just too good, not fair to all the other programs - winning 2A AND 3A - that’s just not right. Seriously though, it’s game time, let’s see those predictions now or never!
May 20th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Anyone out there willing and able to provide updates on tonight’s contests? If so, that will be much appreciated.
May 20th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
See if Waterhouse doesn’t make any predictions, then he can’t be wrong. That’s the true sign of a long time writer!!!!! He is by far, the oldest staff writer in the chain.
May 20th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
I believe its Alameda vs. Pinole Valley. FYI
May 20th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Albany 1, Las Lomas 0 Top 6
Have a friend at the game…
May 20th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Final Score Albany 1, Las Lomas 0
May 20th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Thanks Kyle. Thought the ref was re: bb
May 20th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Thanks much to Hugo and Kyle for the updates. Has the CV/Liv game gone final?
May 20th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
Hugo: Do you or your friend know who pitched for LL?
May 20th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
Shipley for Albany, Peterson for Las Lomas
May 20th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Anyone have a final on the Livermore/CV game?
May 20th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Thanks Hugo. Heartbreaker for Peterson, but Kyle Shipley must have really stepped up his game - quite a duel. Congrats to both!
May 20th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
KB is the leader out of the gate - only one to pick Albany.
May 21st, 2008 at 6:40 pm
5-1, CP ahead of Foothill in Bot. 6
May 21st, 2008 at 8:37 pm
SCORE ALERT!!! SCORE ALERT!!!
ARROYO 7
DE LA SALLE 5 FINAL
DETAILS TO FOLLOW!!!
May 21st, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Congrats to the Arroyo Dons! Rematch with the Hornets next!
May 21st, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Richard Johnson hit a 3-run homer in the 4th inning, breaking a 4-4 tie as the Arroyo Dons defeated the defending NCS 3-A champions De La Salle Dragons by a score of 7-5.
DeLaSalle led 3-0 going into the bottom of the 3rd inning when a base hits by Robert Matheny, Jordan Bratton and a double by Alex Jack led to four Dons runs.
The Dragons countered with one run in top 4. Then the clock struck midnight for De La Salle.
With two out, bottom 4, pitcher Patrick Keen walked Johnny Petros and Rob Matheny, both at the point of “full count”. Johnson then drove a 1-0 pitch into deep center field for his first home run of the season.
Alex Jack pitched 6 1/3 innings, scattering 8 hits. Greg Boyson was summoned in from the bullpen in top seven with runners on 1st and 2nd. (as result of E-6 and a walk). Boyson proceeded to throw 8 pitches in striking out the final 2 batters.
HIGHLIGHTS: (ARROYO)
R. JOHNSON - 3 RUN HOMER,
J. BRATTON - 3 FOR 3, 1 RBI
ALEX JACK, - 6 1/3 INN, 8 HITS, 5 ER, 6 BB
NICK GRUCZA - 2 FOR 3 WITH DOUBLE AND 2 ASSISTS
(DE LA SALLE)
TARANTOLA - 2 FOR 4 WITH A DOUBLE AND 2 RBI’S
PERIO - 2 FOR 4 WITH 2 RUNS SCORED.
That’s enough from me…yes I was there…and a very good crowd tonight at Arroyo. Estimate 750 , it started a little windy at 5p but settled down around 6p…that was about the start of the 3rd inning…
May 21st, 2008 at 9:08 pm
DOES ANYONE HV A SCORE FOR THE ALAMEDA GAME??? BALLFAN, ANY INFO???
May 21st, 2008 at 9:18 pm
thanks for the report ErnDog.
Re: alameda - just have the score; Alameda 5, PV 4.
anyone know, did Pries throw? if so, how many innings,
May 21st, 2008 at 9:22 pm
My understanding, though not yet confirmed, is that Pries DID NOT pitch vs. PV. If anyone has definitive info, HURRY UP AND TELL US ALL!!!!!!!!
May 21st, 2008 at 9:26 pm
ErnDog: Quick correction on your post - your boys beat the Spartans (not Dragons). although you may have been channeling Monte Vista as MV shut out the Bishop O’dowd Dragons. Whatever the name - a HUGE win for Arroyo!
May 21st, 2008 at 9:36 pm
You are so right and my apologies…
Thanks ballfan…
May 21st, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Details and links for other games will be appreciated. ErnDog has stepped up, let’s hear the story behind the scores for the other games.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Just a quick glance, but it looks like KB has ‘em all right except for one. CP is only blemish, right?
May 21st, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Just went to the NCS website and found the following:
Alameda 5 Pinole Valley 4
College Park 6 Foothill 1
MV 8 O’Dowd 0
Newark 3 Liberty 2
Clayton Valley 20 Freedom 12
Arroyo 7 De La Salle 5
I’m out until tomorrow…
May 21st, 2008 at 10:58 pm
I’ll jump in here with my Friday predictions:
3A winners: Livermore and Monte Vista
2A winners:Northgate, El Ceritto, St. Mary’s
Saturday predictions later.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:13 pm
Figures that one of the two games I was at, I get wrong.
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:49 am
Erndog, great win for your team. Congrats!
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Thanks EBAL Fan. Much appreciated…