Well, I have sorted through all the data and got my locks, probables and bubble teams for the North Coast Section Division-II playoffs. I got a pretty good grasp on what needs to happen for some teams and who will likely be in and out of playoffs. Here is the breakdown…
Records are through Friday, Oct. 31. I will update this more as the weeks go by.
Locks: Cardinal Newman (8-0), Las Lomas (6-2), Rancho Cotate (7-1), Campolindo (7-1), Ukiah (7-1), Clayton Valley (8-0), Eureka (4-4, will be Humboldt-Del Norte league champion).
Probables: Redwood (4-3, beat Ygnacio Valley and have all good losses and should win out), Heritage (6-2), Ygnacio Valley (6-2, win over Concord should seal the deal).
That leaves two spots for the bubble teams to fight over.
Bubble: Casa Grande (5-2-1…still hope with sonoma county league title slim possibility); Petaluma (4-4, huge loss to Sonoma Valley sets up probable first-place showdown with Healdsburg for Sonoma County league title. Petaluma wins league title they are in, lose and they are out); Concord (5-2-1, if minutemen win out (they have Ygnacio Valley and Mt. Diablo) they will get in. A loss and it gets more complicated but still a chance.
So you’re saying there’s a chance: Arroyo (4-3, needs to win out against Slz, Hayward and BOD); Hayward (4-4, needs to win out to have a prayer…has Arroyo and San Lorenzo left); Carrillo (5-3, Carrillo finishes with Montgomery and Newman and don’t really have any impressive wins. But possibly finish 6-4 and could be in the discussion. I don’t think they did enough to get in but you never know)
What to root for if you’re:
Casa Grande: Need to beat Healdsburg and have Petaluma lose to Windsor this week. Would help for Concord to lose a game as well.
Petaluma: To win out the season or for Casa Grande to beat Healdsburg. Basically its league title or nothing for Petaluma.
Concord: Win out the season and root for Healdsburg to win Sonoma County league title. A win out should get Concord in no matter what.
Arroyo: Win out and root for Healdsburg in Sonoma County league and against Casa Grande final two weeks.
Hayward: Win out and root for Healdsburg in Sonoma County league and against Casa Grande the final two weeks.
Carrillo: Root against everyone else above and hope to beat Montgomery. Carillo won’t beat Newman.
I won’t attempt to do the seeding until later this week. I have to wait for the Saturday games to be over. My thoughts are Petaluma and Concord are going to be the 11th and 12th teams in the playoffs.