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NCS Division-II Playoff Picture

Well, I have sorted through all the data and got my locks, probables and bubble teams for the North Coast Section Division-II playoffs. I got a pretty good grasp on what needs to happen for some teams and who will likely be in and out of playoffs. Here is the breakdown…

Records are through Friday, Oct. 31. I will update this more as the weeks go by.

Locks: Cardinal Newman (8-0), Las Lomas (6-2), Rancho Cotate (7-1), Campolindo (7-1), Ukiah (7-1), Clayton Valley (8-0), Eureka (4-4, will be Humboldt-Del Norte league champion).

Probables: Redwood (4-3, beat Ygnacio Valley and have all good losses and should win out), Heritage (6-2), Ygnacio Valley (6-2, win over Concord should seal the deal).

That leaves two spots for the bubble teams to fight over.

Bubble: Casa Grande (5-2-1…still hope with sonoma county league title slim possibility); Petaluma (4-4, huge loss to Sonoma Valley sets up probable first-place showdown with Healdsburg for Sonoma County league title. Petaluma wins league title they are in, lose and they are out); Concord (5-2-1, if minutemen win out (they have Ygnacio Valley and Mt. Diablo) they will get in. A loss and it gets more complicated but still a chance.

So you’re saying there’s a chance: Arroyo (4-3, needs to win out against Slz, Hayward and BOD); Hayward (4-4, needs to win out to have a prayer…has Arroyo and San Lorenzo left); Carrillo (5-3, Carrillo finishes with Montgomery and Newman and don’t really have any impressive wins. But possibly finish 6-4 and could be in the discussion. I don’t think they did enough to get in but you never know)

What to root for if you’re:

Casa Grande: Need to beat Healdsburg and have Petaluma lose to Windsor this week. Would help for Concord to lose a game as well.

Petaluma: To win out the season or for Casa Grande to beat Healdsburg. Basically its league title or nothing for Petaluma.

Concord: Win out the season and root for Healdsburg to win Sonoma County league title. A win out should get Concord in no matter what.

Arroyo: Win out and root for Healdsburg in Sonoma County league and against Casa Grande final two weeks.

Hayward: Win out and root for Healdsburg in Sonoma County league and against Casa Grande the final two weeks.

Carrillo: Root against everyone else above and hope to beat Montgomery. Carillo won’t beat Newman.

I won’t attempt to do the seeding until later this week. I have to wait for the Saturday games to be over. My thoughts are Petaluma and Concord are going to be the 11th and 12th teams in the playoffs.

mbower

  • DesCamp72

    What if we beat BOD do we have a case or not

  • Michael Bower

    No, Desmond. You guys are pretty much done. The losses to San Lorenzo and Hayward killed your chances.

  • famfirst1

    So michael if we win out and 2 of the 3 bubble teams are out we sneak it?

  • famfirst1

    So michael if we win out and 2 of the 3 bubble teams are out hayward sneak it?

  • Michael Bower

    Famfirst1,

    If that happens, then Hayward at least enters the discussion and has a decent chance at getting in. It would make it tough on the seeding committee.

  • Michael Bower

    I just added Carrillo because they have an outside chance. I don’t think so, but after thinking about it you never know with the committee. I just don’t think Carrillo has any good wins.

  • DesCamp72

    Yea I did my research thursday nite and I thought our chances were gone too.

  • dnrapp

    I see Arroyo kept their thin playoff hopes alive by beating SLz in the helnet game today.

  • gauchofan

    what about el cerrito’s chances in the playoffs or getting in to them?

  • Michael Bower

    El Cerrito is in D-III and Jimmy Durkin is supposed to be posting that breakdown at some point. We just got ours up early.

  • famfirst1

    Arroyo will be bounced out very soon they have 2 losses waiting for them in hayward and BOD

  • THAMAN

    what about Mt. Diablo, at 5-3 if they win out and get a little help wouldnt they have a chance at getting in

  • Michael Bower

    Yes, I forgot them up there Thaman. Good call. If Mt. Diablo wins out then it will probably get in. I don’t see that happening, though.

  • norcalfb

    Mt Diablo really needed to win last Sat game against Yv and they could have maybe split the last 2 games, if the could upset both Concord and College park then yes they would have a chance BUT have seen all 3 teams play this year I thik Mt Diablo will lose the next 2 games

  • famfirst1

    We at hayward are not likin this whole ncs picture at all even if we win out there is still a chance that we wnt make it in…the losses to San Lorenzo Valley(8-12),YV(14-7),and BOD(14-6)all games decided by less than 8 points

  • Michael Bower

    Yep, it’s going to be tough…

  • famfirst1

    What are the chances if we win out healdsberg wins,concord spilts the next 2 games and casa grande loses?

  • Michael Bower

    Pretty good if all that happens. I would think you guys would get in.

  • famfirst1

    Ok well that’s what we are shootin for…another question do the coaches vote on all league and the writers vote on all eastbay teams after the season or ncs?

  • famfirst1

    And wha happened to the prep of the week article…and how do u determine athlete of the week

  • Michael Bower

    Yes, the all-league teams are voted on by the coaches and the All-East Bay team is voted on by us sports writers. It is voted on after NCS is completed.

    As for the Prep of the Week article, it was eliminated. We now have a male and female athlete of the week that is sponsored by Comcast. We just do short capsules explaining why the athlete is the athlete of the week. Not a full story, but these kids still get their picture in the newspaper and recognition.

    I determine athlete’s of the week based on nominations from the community/coaches and from looking myself how the players did. I ultimately make the final decision. I try to mix it up as best as I can.

  • fair catch kick

    Famfirst, Got to see the Farmers play in past couple of weeks, Hayward is one of the hardest hitting teams I have seen this year. Good luck making the playoffs!

  • famfirst1

    Thank you fair catch kick our defense has been very tough this year

  • famfirst1

    I think if we can sneak in the playoffs we can do sum major damage our offense is firing on all cylinders and our defense is as hard as its been all year

  • Michael Bower

    I agree, famfirst1. I don’t think anybody outside of Hayward wants to see you guys get into the playoffs. You finally got it all going. Really great to see.

  • sanford

    WIth Concord a bubble team playing CV so much closer than anyone else on CV’s schedule does it allow them to move any higher than 11? Does it make them the most dangerous low seed?

  • Michael Bower

    I haven’t seen Concord play, but going by that score I would have to think Concord would be an extremely dangerous low seed. I remember Concord almost beat Hayward in 2006 in the first round. And that Hayward team as stacked.

  • NorCalFB

    I watched the Concord – CV game and it was a exciting close game until the 4th Quarter when CV out scored them 15 to 0 and wore Concord down but IMO it was Clayton worse game of the year !!

    Lets not forget that Concord still has only beating ONE team with a winning record (Rio Linda 5 & 3)
    There season boiled down to 3 games against Clayton Valley – College Park & YV, so far there 0 & 2 in those games, if they beat YV then we can add them to the discussion

  • sanford

    Well they tied castlemont, a very strong team this year, and in the meeting I assure CV will point to Concord as a big win. Also I am not sure why you feel it was one of CV’s worst games, Levine had a very good night as well as the entire offense Dozi found over 160 yards on draw plays and their defense held Concord to under 300 total yards. CV is a very very good team but I am not sure why you have to bang on Concord to lift up CV they won the game, I was just pointing out that they might be worthy of more than a 12 seed.

  • NorCalFB

    Not ripping on Concord at ALL and think it would be a great rematch between the 2 teams just pointing out that they have only one win against a team over 500 !!

    Defensively it was not a great game by Clayton just in my opinion BUT by no means am i trying to put Concord down.

    I actually think Concord will beat YV this week but its a big game for both Bubble teams !!

    I also think that a few North Bay teams might under estimate Concord (Rancho Cotate, Casa Grande, Ukiah) and thats where you might see a upset

  • Famfirst1

    michael any ideas who will get athlete of the week in the daily review

  • Michael Bower

    I have an idea of a couple candidates, but haven’t made my decision yet. I was out sick today so I didn’t do much.

  • Famfirst1

    ok

  • Jeff S

    Do you know how home games are determined in playoffs. Also, are teams seeded 1-12 top 4 get byes and then games are determined as follows:
    5-12
    6-11
    7-10
    8-9

  • niuatoa58

    wen will these be updated?