- East Bay Prep Corner
Final Division III playoff picture
By Jimmy Durkin
Saturday, November 15th, 2008 at 7:17 pm in Uncategorized.
With the happenings from this week’s games, the Division III playoff picture actually became quite simple as only 18 teams are eligible for 16 spots.
UPDATE: Thanks to Hsfootballfan for pointing out that Alhambra is also eligible with a 2-2 record against Div. III teams. I still think Albany is the most likely team to get the No. 16 berth, but Alhambra’s been added in. My guess is Alhambra’s argument will be how close they played Miramonte, so they might have a shot, but I still like Albany since it did win four games on the field.
Locks (15): Encinal (10-0), Novato (8-2), Miramonte (8-2), Bishop O’Dowd 9-1, Marin Catholic 7-3, Piedmont (8-2), Healdburg (7-3), McKinleyville (7-3), , El Cerrito (6-4), Fortuna (6-4), Sir Francis Drake (5-5), Del Norte (5-4), Kennedy-Fremont (5-5), Analy (5-5), Tamalpais (5-5).
Bubble teams (3): Albany (2-7, eligible because of a 2-2 mark against Div. III, lost two wins to forfeit); Piner (2-8, is 2-2 vs. Div. III to become eligible); Alhambra (2-8, eligible with 2-2 record against Div. III)
San Marin and Kennedy-Richmond both had opportunities to win to become eligible, but Kennedy lost to St. Mary’s 29-28 to cost itself a berth and San Marin lost Sonoma Valley 40-20 to become eliminated. That means one of our two-win teams gets in (remember when people laughed that two wins got you into the OAL playoffs, well we’ve got that in the NCS now too!).
Both two win teams are eligible only because of their 2-2 records against Div. III opponents. My guess is the berth will go to Albany since Albany won four games on the field, but had to forfeit its victory to Mission San Jose for using an ineligible player and there was a double-forfeit of its game with Emery because both used ineligible players. Since even with those two losses, Albany still has as many wins as Piner, I have to think Albany gets it. And Albany’s best win (Kennedy-Richmond) is certainly better than Piner’s (El Molino). Plus, I wouldn’t be surprised if Piner didn’t even show up to the meeting. Actually I’m hoping Albany knows its eligible and still shows up. If there are any Cougar fans out there, make sure Coach Shevelson goes to the meeting — his team will get in.
Anyways, here’s my crack at the seedings. Things could be way off, particularly in the middle, but we’ll see tomorrow.
1. Encinal
2. Novato
3. Miramonte
4. Bishop O’Dowd
5. Marin Catholic (beat Drake, something Piedmont — with a better record — didn’t do)
6. Piedmont
7. Healdsburg (owns head-to-head win over McKinleyville)
8. McKinleyville
9. El Cerrito
10. Sir Francis Drake (win over Piedmont is big)
11. Fortuna
12. Del Norte
13. Kennedy-Fremont (having a win over Div. 1 playoff-eligible Newark is something to talk about)
14. Tamalpais
15. Analy (committee looks at what you’ve done recently, they’ve lost 5 straight)
16. Albany (win over Kennedy-Richmond gets them in, mainly because it made Kennedy ineligible)
First-round matchups
No. 16 Albany at No. 1 Encinal (Encinal won 38-0 in regular season)
No. 15 Analy at No. 2 Novato
No. 14 Tamalpais at No. 3 Miramonte
No. 13 Kennedy-Fremont at No. 4 Bishop O’Dowd (O’Dowd won 35-14 in regular season)
No. 12 Del Norte at No. 5 Marin Catholic
No. 11 Fortuna at No. 6 Piedmont
No. 10 Drake at No. 7 Healdsburg
No. 9 El Cerrito at No. 8 McKinleyville
*Note: I don’t know if all of the teams I predict to host have a site eligible to host or have submitted hosting paperwork. This is based just on my predicted seedings.
[You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.]
November 15th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Alhambra is also 2-2 against DIII opponents. With Novato’s SOS I can’t imagine them not getting the #1 seed even with 2 losses. I know that the meeting will not include the scores of the wins and losses but, after last nite, Miramonte should go a bit lower and Marin Catholic a bit higher. Albany, San Marin and Alhambra coaches really should just stay home since it would be very embarassing for them in the first round. I actually think the top seeds will end up with byes since it will be hard to fill the brackets.
November 15th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
Hsfootballfan,
I’ve added Alhambra in, but I don’t think it’ll have much of a chance. Novato’s SOS make it a team worthy of being ranked higher in polls and such than Encinal, but the way seedings go, there’s little chance Encinal doesn’t get the No. 1 seed.
San Marin isn’t eligible, so their coach won’t be there. I wouldn’t be shocked if Piner or Alhambra didn’t show up either. Albany would be the least embarrassing since it has won four games on the field. The only way there is a first round bye would be if less than 16 eligible teams show up. The first 15 teams listed will all be there I’d imagine and my guess is Albany will show up, so you won’t likely see a first round bye. They wouldn’t just not fill the brackets because they didn’t see teams as being worthy. If 16 teams show up and are eligible, the brackets will be filled.
November 15th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
el cerrito should have a higher seed…they beat 2 DII teams (alameda and pinole) and nearly beat Berkeley
November 15th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
My reasons why I think Miramonte’s SOS is better than Novato’s:
1. Foothill, Mats tied 7-7 with 34 seconds to go and Foothill pulls out the win 14-7. Two weeks earlier Foothill routes Novato 48-13. Big edge to Mats.
2. Best team Mats beat was Las Lomas, best for Novato Marin Catholic. Every poll all year long has had Las Lomas rank higher than MC. In your current super poll YOU have LL rank higher than Miramonte and DV. Slight edge to Mats.
3. Mats lose 7-0 to 9-1 1st place Campo (should be a top seed in Div II). Novato loses 22-13 to 8-2 3rd place Valley Christian. Very slight edge to Mats.
4. San Marin, Mats win 46-7, Novato wins 41-7. Very slight edge to Mats.
5. For Mats, three of five Non-league games are to Div I, one non-league and two league (both playoff bound)are to Div II teams. Novato played one Div I (Foothill) and one Div II. Slight edge to Mats
P.S. Why it doesn’t matter, Novato is LC and Miramonte isn’t. I think you’ve done a really good job!
November 15th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
I think ther are four locks, six party chrashers and six pick ‘ems. The top four figure to be locks: 1-Novato, 2-Encinal, 3-Marin Catholic, 4-Bishop O’Dowd.
Because of the strength of schedule (playing teams twice and losing by more the second time around) or facing higher division opponents I think here are next five: 5-Miramonte, 6-Healdsburg, 7-Kennedy-Fremont, 8-McKinleyville, 9-Piedmont, 10-El Cerrito…
November 15th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Gauchofan,
Unfortunately, almost beating Berkeley doesn’t hold as much weight as you would think. And beating Alameda and Pinole doesn’t carry much weight. Alameda is not a very good team and Pinole in going to be a non-playoff team that hasn’t beaten anybody (and lost to a Mack team that finished last in the OAL). Honestly, El Cerrito at No. 9 might even be a little higher than they’ll go, but I moved them up because of how impressed I was with their defense against Berkeley.
As for the Miramonte-Novato debate, Coach63a makes a lot of good points and point 1 will be probably the biggest selling point. Point 2 won’t carry much weight because polls are not allowed to be mentioned by coaches in their speeches. As for LL being ahead of Miramonte in the poll, in my opinion they shouldn’t be and I didn’t vote them ahead, but obviously every voter is entitled to their opinion and that’s how it worked out. With Point 3, Valley Christian is a better team that Campo even as a third place team. The WCAL is much better than the DFAL so Novato’s loss to VC actually is more impressive than Miramonte’s loss to Campo. For Point 4, the score difference is not significant enough to give either an edge. It’s all pretty close and my guess is Novato’s past history (having gone to the state title game) is going to help them out here, even though it shouldn’t have a place. We’ll see come tomorrow.
November 15th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
and 3 of el cerrito’s losses came from higher division playoff teams
November 15th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
I actually believe Miramonte will seed higher but was very surprised by their score against Alhambra. I saw Alhambra play and was very disappointed at how different they are since the Rutley days. The players on the side lines seemed bored or were not paying attention at all, and they won that game! In my book the DFAL is down this year, overall. Novato has gone out of their way to find games with good teams and agreed to play Foothill with only 3 day of prep, no excuse they got stomped but Foothill was EXTREMELY underrated in the preseason. Encinal may be undefeated but their league and schedule does not warrant a #1 seed. With that said, it will be up to the powers that be tommorrow morning. Good luck to all!!!
November 15th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
I hope Fremont-Kennedy meets BOD. They are a different team than BOD met in the first few weeks of the season. Titans D is designed to beat the run, but their passing defense has improved. When the o-line plays its best, they can run the ball and control the clock. Having two backs with over 1,000 yards in a season shows that they run when their heart is in the game.
November 15th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
The 6-4 record hurts though. Maybe you climb above 7-3 McKinleyville and get the No. 8 seed so you get to host, which would obviously be a big one spot leap because of that, but its hard to put a 6-4 team ahead of a 7-3. especially when two of McKinleyville’s losses are to a team (Ferndale) that’s spent most of the year projected to go to the Small Schools state title game. And Healdsburg has to be ahead of McKinleyville because of its head-to-head win. Sorry, but just have a hard time seeing them higher than No. 9.
November 15th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
I don’t figure it will happen, but I hope the Titans play BOD at Tak Field. It seats more and parents have equal quality seating on both sides of the field, nicer than at BOD. This is just a hope from someone who likes a nicer view and plenty of seating.
November 15th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
Key an eye out for Kennedy-Fremont Sophomre limeman Joseph Nahale. He man-handled the opposition all year.
November 16th, 2008 at 12:07 am
Is that Ashley Nahale’s little brother?
November 16th, 2008 at 12:10 am
Having seen the Alhambra play Miramonte but nobody else, I’m surprised the Bulldogs have just two wins this season. They played tough the whole game, despite lots of turnovers, and Calhoun is a heck of a running back. Granted, Miramonte certainly did not play very well at all. I think they’ll perform better in the playoffs because of it, though. I don’t think Alhambra really passed at all much this season, but had a lot of success in the air vs. Miramonte. I think they’re a team that just really improved as the season went on.
November 16th, 2008 at 6:03 am
Joseph Nahale is Doug Nahale’s son.
November 16th, 2008 at 8:10 am
i agree with titandad kennedy has only givin up 14 points in the last three games against american logan and newark. The schedule that Cocah Mike made has payed off and things should now get interesting as long as the defense keeps playing the way they did. If you look at the bishop game and take away those three interceptions kennedy would of been in the game. Kennedy’s quarterback has came a long way and has more poise and makes better decisions since than
November 16th, 2008 at 8:17 am
For the case of Kennedy of Fremont and Bishop O’dowd it would be a good match up if its in a stadium with good seating. for Kennedy-Fremont they can make a case against McKinleyville because although Mckinleyville posted losses against a very good D4 opponent in Ferndale but the score was worse the second time (33-6, 54-14) they also have two wins (they play teams twice) against a D5 opponent in Hoopa Valley who has an overall record of 1-8 and two more wins against Southfork another D5 team. McKinley opponents have a combined record of 38-51. Kennedy Fremont has D1 wins but two wins came via Mission of Fremont and American of Fremont however they are D1 opponents and Kennedy Fremont has four D1 wins Irvington and Newark. El Cerrito has a 6-4 record and lost to a respected Campo team (D2), Pinole (D2) and Richmond (D2) they played Berkeley a D1 school at the end of the year but was handled that was the strength of their schedule everyone else was a D3 team. El Cerrito won six of their last seven games but they included 1-AAA, 3-D2, 2-D3 teams. McKinleyville’s last five games have 3 wins against D5 teams and 2 losses to D4 teams. Kennedy of Fremont’s last 5 games include 2 losses, one to Washington of Fremont and Logan (which they were in until the end), and include wins agianst Irvington and Newark all D1 opponenets.
November 16th, 2008 at 8:54 am
In regards to BOD-Kennedy, As weak as you could say the HAAL is, the MVAL isn’t a very good league,so their running backs having over 1,000 yards doesn’t hold much weight. The run defense of BOD is stout with Martin in the middle and their lineman that has “dominated” the opposition all year hasn’t met William Hodgman from the O’ Dowd squad. The kid was ineligible the first 5 games of the season. So BOD-Kennedy wouldn’t be as great of a matchup as you would like to hope TitanDad.
November 16th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Has this been updated?
November 16th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Yea El Cerrito should get a high seed they almost beat Berkeley and they BEAT! Pinole and Alameda. El Cerrito is a good team but won’t last all the way because there are tough teams in this Div playoff matchup
November 16th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Rank us as u like no one gave us a chance of even making the playoffs in the first place.Also everybody thought we were going to be destroyed by berkeley so u do what u have to do and we`ll go out and play our hearts out on the field to win.
November 17th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
i, too, was at the alhambra-miramonte game. my son plays for miramonte. in any case, i agree with bay area watcher. alhambra looked like a much better team than one with a 2-8 record (and, yes, mirmamonte didn’t look that great). i hope they have a good season next year (but still lose to miramonte of course)