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NCS Basketball Seeding Meeting Predictions

By mbower
Friday, February 20th, 2009 at 5:44 pm in Uncategorized.

I am in the process of putting together qualifying teams and predictions for each North Coast Section boys and girls basketball division. I am hopeful by the end of tonight I will have all the divisions completed. Just keep checking back. Remember, we will have a live blog from the NCS seeding meeting on Sunday at 9 a.m. Most of the records below are through Thursday. A few have been updated through Friday.

Boys
Division I

We have 14 teams that qualify and 12 spots in the field. So two teams are going to be left out. This Division was compiled by Kyle Bonagura.

Qualifying teams: Antioch (12-13 … has 11-7 record vs. Division I teams), Berkeley (22-3), Castro Valley (21-4), De La Salle (24-1), Deer Valley (14-10), Freedom (10-13 … has 8-7 record vs. D-I teams), Granada (15-10), James Logan (19-8), Monte Vista (22-3), Newark Memorial (22-4), Pittsburg (19-6), San Leandro 22-3, San Ramon Valley (17-8), Washington (14-13)

League champions: Berkeley, De La Salle, Newark Memorial (not official yet), Pittsburg, San Leandro.

At-Large Berth locks: Castro Valley, James Logan, Monte Vista, Granada, Deer Valley, San Ramon Valley

Bubble teams: Antioch, Freedom, Washington.

Predicted field: Berkeley, DLS, Newark Memorial, Pittsburg, San Leandro, Castro Valley, James Logan, Monte Vista, Granada, Deer Valley, Washington, San Ramon Valley.

Predicted seeding: 1. DLS; 2. San Leandro; 3. Monte Vista; 4. Newark Memorial; 5. Berkeley; 6. Castro Valley; 7. Pitt; 8. James Logan; 9. San Ramon Valley; 10. Granada; 11. Deer Valley; 12. Washington

The bottom portion of this seeding can probably go in any order. But the top eight seeds are pretty much a lock. Only possibilites of differences can be Monte Vista and San Leandro being flip flopped and possibly Castro Valley and Pittsburg. But Castro Valley beat Pitt earlier this season so the Trojans should get the No. 6 seed.

Division II

We have 14 teams that qualify and 12 spots in the field.

Qualifying teams: Alameda (15-9), Casa Grande (14-13), Clayton Valley (16-10), Concord (14-11), Hayward (17-7), Heritage (17-8), Las Lomas (16-9), Maria Carrillo (16-11), Northgate (21-5), Petaluma (11-17 … has 7-4 league record), Pinole Valley (16-9), Redwood (14-13), San Lorenzo (14-12), Ukiah (19-8).

League champions: Northgate

At-Large Berth locks: Hayward, Las Lomas, Heritage, Pinole Valley, Maria Carrillo, Clayton Valley, Ukiah

Bubble teams: Casa Grande, Alameda, Petaluma, Redwood, San Lorenzo, Concord

Predicted field: Northgate, Hayward, Las Lomas, Heritage, Pinole Valley, Maria Carrillo, Clayton Valley, Concord, Ukiah, Redwood, Alameda, San Lorenzo

Predicted seeding: 1. Northgate; 2. Hayward; 3. Las Lomas; 4. Heritage; 5. Pinole Valley; 6. Ukiah; 7. Maria Carrillo; 8. Clayton Valley; 9. Alameda; 10. Redwood; 11. San Lorenzo; 12. Concord.

Top seed here is tricky because Hayward beat Las Lomas but lost to Northgate. Las Lomas beat Northgate. I give it to Northgate since they have the best overall record and are league champions. I can really see anything happening in the bottom here. I can see Petaluma getting in and Casa Grande, but I went with San Lorenzo and Concord just because Petaluma’s record is so terrible and Casa Grande’s overall record isn’t much different from San Lorenzo’s or Concords and Grande lost twice to Petaluma. But I can see anything happening.

Division III

We have 16 teams that qualify and 12 spots in the field.

Qualifying teams: Acalanes (13-12), Alhambra (13-11), Analy (22-6), Bishop O’Dowd (19-7), Campolindo (15-10), Dublin (18-7), El Cerrito (16-10), Eureka (15-11), Hercules (13-12 going into Berkeley game tonight but 605 vs. D-III teams so qualifies even with loss), JFK-Richmond (16-12), Miramonte (21-4), Novato (13-15 … 9-7 league record), Piner (20-7), San Marin (15-14), Sir Francis Drake (20-6), Terra Linda (18-9).

League champions: Analy and Miramonte

At-Large Berth locks: Bishop O’Dowd, Dublin, Campolindo, El Cerrito, Piner, Sir Francis Drake

Bubble teams: Acalanes, Alhambra, Eureka, Hercules, Novato, San Marin, Terra Linda, Kennedy-Richmond

Predicted field:

Predicted seeding:

Division IV

it looks like we have only 13 teams qualified for 12 spots, although some of my records might not be fully accurate. A lot of out of area teams so I’m going with what I get from MaxPreps. — Jimmy Durkin

Qualifying teams: Arcata (21-6), Clear Lake (15-12), Cardinal Newman (27-0), Fort Bragg (15-13), Fortuna (13-12), Healdburg (12-13, but 8-7 vs. Div. IV), Kelseyville (11-16, but 4-4 in league), Marin Catholic (13-14, but 1-1 vs. Div. IV), McKinleyville (15-11), Salesian (22-4), St. Mary’s (24-3), St. Patrick-St. Vincent (18-8), Willits (12-14, but 5-3 in league).

Locks: Arcata, Clear Lake, Cardinal Newman, Fort Bragg, McKinleyville, Salesian, St. Mary’s, St. Patrick-St. Vincent.

Bubble teams: All the other listed teams should be considered bubble teams because their records are less than impressive. If the records I have are close to accurate (again, I’m making no assurances they are) and only these 13 teams are eligible, I think it comes down to Kelseyville and Willits for the last spot with the rest getting in. Kelseyville beat Willits it looks like in the league tournament yesterday to reach the finals today. If they win, then obviously that settles that. Otherwise, it comes down to Kelseyville having a worse record, but winning two of three over Willits and probably getting the berth. We’ll see. But let’s be honest, this bracket is all about St. Mary’s and Salesian, with possibly Cardinal Newman making some noise. I think whoever wins the BSAL title game get the No. 1 seed, the other gets the No. 2 and an unbeated Cardinal Newman gets the No. 3. But seeding committees tend to like unbeaten teams, so who knows what could happen with CN.

Predicted field: Arcata, Clear Lake, Cardinal Newman, Fort Bragg, Fortuna, Healdburg, Kelseyville, Marin Catholic, McKinleyville, Salesian, St. Mary’s, St. Patrick-St. Vincent.

Girls

Division I

Qualifying teams: Monte Vista (23-3), Deer Valley (20-6), Berkeley (21-6), American (20-8), Granada (17-9), Newark Memorial (19-8), Mission San Jose (16-12), James Logan (15-13), California (15-10), San Ramon Valley (14-12), College Park (16-10), Castro Valley (12-14 – winning record in league), Santa Rosa (15-12), Antioch (14-12).

League champions (3): Deer Valley, Berkeley, American/Newark winner.

At-Large Berth locks: Monte Vista, American/Newark loser, Granada, California, College Park.

Probably in: James Logan, San Ramon Valley, Santa Rosa.

Bubble teams: Mission San Jose, Antioch.

Longshot: Castro Valley.

Predicted at-large berths: Monte Vista, American/Newark loser, Granada, California, College Park, San Ramon Valley, Santa Rosa, James Logan and Mission San Jose.

Predicted seeding: 1. Monte Vista; 2. Deer Valley; 3. Berkeley; 4. American; 5. Newark; 6. Granada; 7. Cal; 8. Santa Rosa; 9. San Ramon Valley; 10. Logan; 11 College Park; 12. Mission San Jose.

Last spot: I think the top 11 seeds are fairly safe going into tomorrow’s NCS seeding meeting with the last spot coming down to Mission San Jose and Antioch. I ended up going with MSJ because it played a much tougher schedule and had a better overall record, but the Warriors’ lone key local win this year was against Castro Valley, a team that will definitely be left out. MSJ did win a tournament in Merced to strengthen its resume and nearly knocked off Newark on Thursday. Antioch has a win over Cal that could vault the Panthers into the playoffs, but that win over Cal was the first game of the year and the Grizzlies avenged that loss on Dec. 30. Tough decision to be made.
Seeding: Let’s be honest, there are only three teams that can win this tournament: Monte Vista, Deer Valley and Berkeley. Monte Vista is clearly the top seed, so that means the most important seeding is the 2 vs 3 because the winner of Deer Valley and Berkeley in the semis (a rematch of last year’s NCS final that Berkeley won) will get to go to NorCals. Both are league champs, so the No. 2 would get the home game. After looking closely at the body of work of both teams, Deer Valley should be the No. 2. The Wolverines have won 16 straight games and all six of their losses have came to teams ranked in the top-37 of the state by Maxpreps.com. They could have very easily scheduled themselves to an undefeated record. DV has a big time win over Oak Ridge (22-3) and beat Sheldon by twice as many points as Berkeley. Berkeley’s resume is very similar. It has won nine straight games and went undefeated in ACCAL play, which is a tougher league than the BVAL by most accounts because Pinole is in the league. Berkeley’s best wins are probably Grant and the two over Pinole. The one thing that Berkeley has that Deer Valley doesn’t is a glaring loss. Berkeley’s 28-point loss to Encinal just doesn’t make sense and with the two teams mirroring each other so closely, that could be the edge DV needs.
After that it’s pretty much a crap shoot. American and Newark play tonight in the MVAL championship game (a game I think American will win after watching the semis on Thursday), so that’s why I have American 4, Newark 5. Granada had a chance at the 4, but lost to Livermore last night, which will drop the Mats a little. Cal just lost Shelby Guittierez with a torn ACL, so that hurts Cal which could have a lot of trouble with Logan’s height if they meet in the first round. Santa Rosa and College Park are complete mystery teams. Santa Rosa hasn’t played an East Bay team and CP’s only Division 1 opponent was Monte Vista. SRV is without Jenna Giusti for the rest of the year sometimes has three freshmen and a sophomore on the court.

— Kyle Bonagura

Division II

Qualifying teams: Alameda (17-8), Carondelet (22-3), Clayton Valley (17-9), Hayward (9-14 .. 4-2 against D-II), Heritage (18-8), Livermore (13-13 … 5-2 against D-II), Maria Carrillo (14-12), Montgomery (19-8), Northgate (22-3), Petaluma (23-5), Pinole Valley (19-5), San Lorenzo (14-12), Sonoma Valley (16-12), Windsor (13-13 … 7-5 in league), Ukiah (13-14 … 9-5 league record)

League champions: Northgate, Carondelet, Petaluma

At-Large Berth locks: Alameda, Clayton Valley, Heritage, Montgomery, Pinole Valley, Sonoma Valley

Bubble teams: Hayward, Windsor, Livermore, San Lorenzo, Maria Carrillo, Ukiah

Predicted field: Northgate, Carondelet, Petaluma, Alameda, Clayton Valley, Heritage, Montgomery, Pinole Valley, Sonoma Valley, San Lorenzo, Windsor, Livermore

Predicted seeding:

Division IV

It appears there are 16 potentially eligible teams for 12 spots. Two teams, Kelseyville and Lower Lake, might be eligible if we had some results that are listed as missing, but honestly I don’t think it’ll matter because their are 14 definitely eligible teams that should be above them. And my honest assessment of this bracket is that nobody is going to beat St. Mary’s (sorry Moreau folks), so the seeding process might not matter much. — Jimmy Durkin

Qualifying teams: Arcata (13-13, Fortuna (24-3), Healdsburg (14-13), Justin-Siena (17-10), Kelseyville (11-13, two results missing, if they won both, they’d be .500 and eligible), Lower Lake (9-15, but 3-4 in league and two results missing that could make them above .500 in league), Marin Catholic (21-5), McKinleyville (19-5), Middletown (16-7), Moreau Catholic (20-5), Piedmont (17-9), St. Helena (23-1), St. Mary’s (23-4), St. Patrick-St. Vincent (15-12), Ursuline (19-8), Willits (21-15).

Locks: Fortuna, Justin-Siena, Marin Catholic, McKinleyville, Middletown, Moreau Catholic, Piedmont, St. Helena, St. Mary’s, St. Patrick-St. Vincent, Ursuline, Willits..

Bubble teams: My locks add up to 12, so I’m going to say that’s going to be the field and Arcata, Healdsburg, Kelseyville and Lower Lake (if even eligible) are all out. That seems simple enough. Let’s see if I’m right


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  • High School Sports Junkie

    We can blame it on Steve the last sentence was him… Dang my wife is calling me to come to bed lets see sports or nookie…..HMMMMMM I told her if I am not there in 20 min to start without me

  • Michael Bower

    Blaming it on Steve is always the best option … haha.

  • High School Sports Junkie

    Do they have to be OVER .500 in league or just .500

  • Michael Bower

    Have to have “more wins than losses,” according to the NCS website.

  • Michael Bower

    it’s a shame, too, because Kennedy deserves to be in that field

  • High School Sports Junkie

    Last question on Kennedy… did they win 2 playoff games and loose 1 if so would that put them over .500

  • Michael Bower

    Kennedy went 1-1 in the mval playoffs.

  • High School Sports Junkie

    Ok it’s Steves fault

  • Michael Bower

    hahaha

  • High School Sports Junkie

    No Girls D-3 predictions

  • Michael Bower

    At least the Newark boys soccer team won in PK’s against Amador Valley tonight and will be in the semifinals against DLS.

  • High School Sports Junkie

    Thats great go Cougars.. How about finals from MVAL Boys and Girls hoops

  • High School Sports Junkie

    That Win avenged Newark’s only loss of the year, Like Matt and I said earlier Don’t want to play a team that feels it was disrespected by the seeding committee

  • Cougar

    Newark Memorial won Boys and Girls basketball as well as in a great boys soccer game.

  • Michael Bower

    Ha, give me a break on the D-III girls. I can only get to so much. Seeding meeting is tomorrow and I will get it up late late tonight when I gather the strength to do one more division.

  • High School Sports Junkie

    and Kyle predicted an American victory tonite… Great nite for Cougar Country sports

  • High School Sports Junkie

    Oh Mike just pencil in BOD as champs and say no more (even if I am still pissed at the coaches for the Guerra blunder)

  • Michael Bower

    ha, well that isn’t the coaches fault. Trust me, the coaches and AD did all they could in that situation. It is the interpretation of the rule by the NCS commissioner that did Guerra in this year.

  • High School Sports Junkie

    Oh I could rant for a while on that one but I won’t. Hmmm wife fell asleep maybe I will BBQ me some linguisa and put it in sourdough garlic bread with Parmesean cheese

  • Michael Bower

    haha, don’t ruin your prize for winning the pick ‘em title!

  • High School Sports Junkie

    At my age I spoil myself, I got kids older than all you guys at ANG, and been going to MVAL sporting events since 1963 when I was 6 yrs old

  • Michael Bower

    oh man, you must remember when Mission was good at football.

  • High School Sports Junkie

    and Swift was undeafeted

  • Michael Bower

    ha, I think he won the MVAL wrestling title at some weight at some time.

  • Michael Bower

    hoose knows more about that than I do.

  • High School Sports Junkie

    and Newark played in the TOC and was beat by Ansley Truit in the semi’s

  • Michael Bower

    oh man, now you are pulling out some knowledge.

  • ukiahsportsfan

    You have Ukiah boys way too low in D2.

    -Beat Maria twice with Justin Harold (who is now gone, which makes Maria average at best).
    -Beat Piner once.
    -Second in the North Bay League
    -Killed San Lorenzo
    -Was up on Pinole Valley until late in the game.

    I say 6, 7 at the lowest.

  • E_CULB

    So who decides how the teams are seeded if the commish doesnt?

  • Michael Bower

    Thanks for that Ukiahsportsfan. I wasn’t exactly sure how good Ukiah is since I haven’t seen them. These predictions are up there just for people to get an idea of how things will play out … we do it to the best of our knowledge in such a short time.

  • High School Sports Junkie

    I have newspaper articles from “The News Register” which was the name of the paper before it became “The Argus” well I better call it a night and just want all of you guys at ANG to know you do a great job especially in today’s difficult newspaper times

  • Michael Bower

    Ukiah,

    I didn’t even seed D-II. I just put who I predicted would get in the field. That isn’t the seeding order … I never finished that part of D-II boys.

  • Michael Bower

    Eculb,

    There is a committee for each division that decides how the teams are seeded and who is selected into the field.

  • j_dubs

    It really is a shame Kennedy-Fremont won’t even get considered for NCS. They play hard and that game on Friday against Newark was a heartbreaker for them.

  • j_dubs

    It really is a shame Kennedy-Fremont won’t even get considered for NCS. They play hard and that game on Friday against Newark was a heartbreaker for them.

  • Michael Bower

    Thanks, sports junkie. We appreciate that.

  • ukiahsportsfan

    Thanks Mike. My mistake.

    Maria lost their stud center to suspension, so their record is going to primarily reflect when he was on the team. Without him, they aren’t going to get past the first round.

    I think that Casa gets blasted in the first round if they make it. I think that Petaluma is dangerous to a higher seed if they make it. Analy can shoot the hell out of the ball, but has played a horribly easy league schedule. Eureka is in the midst of a nightmare with personnel and will probably get drilled in the first round.

    I think Cardinal Newman could beat St. Mary’s, but probably not Salesian. Underrated and very deep team. Arcata could nail someone. Everyone else (Fort Bragg, Clear Lake, Kelseyville, McKinleyville) won’t go far.

  • Michael Bower

    Thanks for all the great information, Ukiah. We obviously don’t get to see any of those squads until NCS starts so we aren’t very familiar with them except for the records. That’s some good insider information! Make sure to be up by 9 a.m. and watch the seeding meeting unfold live right here on the blog!

  • E_CULB

    A commitee made up of who?

  • Michael Bower

    Committee made up of people from different regions of the North Coast Section. These people are selected before the season starts so they can follow the teams.

  • E_CULB

    Thanks!

  • Hoop Guy

    Why isn’t there Division 5 seedings up there??

  • http://ibabuzz.com/prepcorner Jimmy Durkin

    Hoop Guy,
    There are just so many teams with NCS having six divisions and us having so much other work to do, that we didn’t have time to break down all five divisions. Sorry. Luckily, chances are Div. V will be one of the first done today, so the wait won’t be as long. We’ll certainly keep you posted and I’ll talk about D V during the live blog beginning around 8:45.

  • dan

    Hi, how do you think Miramonte will do in D3 playoffs this year? 12-0 in league and 22 wins. They have the smoooth Holy Cross bound center they ride on and have beaten Salesian and played Stm Marys close. When they play well they look awesome but they also look shaky some games

  • Peter Peabody

    In div. 4 girls, if St. Mary’s is seeded #1, who in your opinion, will be seeded 2nd & 3rd?

  • John

    well seems to me for the Division Three prediction you were partially wrong, yes Analy won the league championship for the SCL but Piner beat an undefeated team Cardinal Newman (27-0) to make them (27-1) for the league championships, I think the team that has the best chance of going to state and winning
    Division III Championships is Piner.

  • Brett

    Piner lost to acalanes, a team that miramonte beat twice. None of these teams can beat sac high or Sacred heart, but bishop o’dowd or miramonte should win ncs. Piner has Lucas Devenny, the best player in D3 NCS, but he could get neutralised by the two bigs from miramonte, and the rest of thier team isn’t as strong or as deep as needed for a championship.

  • ConcernedBBallPlayer

    Willits is 21-7 thank you very much:)GO WILLITS!!!