I am in the process of putting together qualifying teams and predictions for each North Coast Section boys and girls basketball division. I am hopeful by the end of tonight I will have all the divisions completed. Just keep checking back. Remember, we will have a live blog from the NCS seeding meeting on Sunday at 9 a.m. Most of the records below are through Thursday. A few have been updated through Friday.
We have 14 teams that qualify and 12 spots in the field. So two teams are going to be left out. This Division was compiled by Kyle Bonagura.
Qualifying teams: Antioch (12-13 … has 11-7 record vs. Division I teams), Berkeley (22-3), Castro Valley (21-4), De La Salle (24-1), Deer Valley (14-10), Freedom (10-13 … has 8-7 record vs. D-I teams), Granada (15-10), James Logan (19-8), Monte Vista (22-3), Newark Memorial (22-4), Pittsburg (19-6), San Leandro 22-3, San Ramon Valley (17-8), Washington (14-13)
League champions: Berkeley, De La Salle, Newark Memorial (not official yet), Pittsburg, San Leandro.
At-Large Berth locks: Castro Valley, James Logan, Monte Vista, Granada, Deer Valley, San Ramon Valley
Bubble teams: Antioch, Freedom, Washington.
Predicted field: Berkeley, DLS, Newark Memorial, Pittsburg, San Leandro, Castro Valley, James Logan, Monte Vista, Granada, Deer Valley, Washington, San Ramon Valley.
Predicted seeding: 1. DLS; 2. San Leandro; 3. Monte Vista; 4. Newark Memorial; 5. Berkeley; 6. Castro Valley; 7. Pitt; 8. James Logan; 9. San Ramon Valley; 10. Granada; 11. Deer Valley; 12. Washington
The bottom portion of this seeding can probably go in any order. But the top eight seeds are pretty much a lock. Only possibilites of differences can be Monte Vista and San Leandro being flip flopped and possibly Castro Valley and Pittsburg. But Castro Valley beat Pitt earlier this season so the Trojans should get the No. 6 seed.
We have 14 teams that qualify and 12 spots in the field.
Qualifying teams: Alameda (15-9), Casa Grande (14-13), Clayton Valley (16-10), Concord (14-11), Hayward (17-7), Heritage (17-8), Las Lomas (16-9), Maria Carrillo (16-11), Northgate (21-5), Petaluma (11-17 … has 7-4 league record), Pinole Valley (16-9), Redwood (14-13), San Lorenzo (14-12), Ukiah (19-8).
League champions: Northgate
At-Large Berth locks: Hayward, Las Lomas, Heritage, Pinole Valley, Maria Carrillo, Clayton Valley, Ukiah
Bubble teams: Casa Grande, Alameda, Petaluma, Redwood, San Lorenzo, Concord
Predicted field: Northgate, Hayward, Las Lomas, Heritage, Pinole Valley, Maria Carrillo, Clayton Valley, Concord, Ukiah, Redwood, Alameda, San Lorenzo
Predicted seeding: 1. Northgate; 2. Hayward; 3. Las Lomas; 4. Heritage; 5. Pinole Valley; 6. Ukiah; 7. Maria Carrillo; 8. Clayton Valley; 9. Alameda; 10. Redwood; 11. San Lorenzo; 12. Concord.
Top seed here is tricky because Hayward beat Las Lomas but lost to Northgate. Las Lomas beat Northgate. I give it to Northgate since they have the best overall record and are league champions. I can really see anything happening in the bottom here. I can see Petaluma getting in and Casa Grande, but I went with San Lorenzo and Concord just because Petaluma’s record is so terrible and Casa Grande’s overall record isn’t much different from San Lorenzo’s or Concords and Grande lost twice to Petaluma. But I can see anything happening.
We have 16 teams that qualify and 12 spots in the field.
Qualifying teams: Acalanes (13-12), Alhambra (13-11), Analy (22-6), Bishop O’Dowd (19-7), Campolindo (15-10), Dublin (18-7), El Cerrito (16-10), Eureka (15-11), Hercules (13-12 going into Berkeley game tonight but 605 vs. D-III teams so qualifies even with loss), JFK-Richmond (16-12), Miramonte (21-4), Novato (13-15 … 9-7 league record), Piner (20-7), San Marin (15-14), Sir Francis Drake (20-6), Terra Linda (18-9).
League champions: Analy and Miramonte
At-Large Berth locks: Bishop O’Dowd, Dublin, Campolindo, El Cerrito, Piner, Sir Francis Drake
Bubble teams: Acalanes, Alhambra, Eureka, Hercules, Novato, San Marin, Terra Linda, Kennedy-Richmond
it looks like we have only 13 teams qualified for 12 spots, although some of my records might not be fully accurate. A lot of out of area teams so I’m going with what I get from MaxPreps. — Jimmy Durkin
Qualifying teams: Arcata (21-6), Clear Lake (15-12), Cardinal Newman (27-0), Fort Bragg (15-13), Fortuna (13-12), Healdburg (12-13, but 8-7 vs. Div. IV), Kelseyville (11-16, but 4-4 in league), Marin Catholic (13-14, but 1-1 vs. Div. IV), McKinleyville (15-11), Salesian (22-4), St. Mary’s (24-3), St. Patrick-St. Vincent (18-8), Willits (12-14, but 5-3 in league).
Locks: Arcata, Clear Lake, Cardinal Newman, Fort Bragg, McKinleyville, Salesian, St. Mary’s, St. Patrick-St. Vincent.
Bubble teams: All the other listed teams should be considered bubble teams because their records are less than impressive. If the records I have are close to accurate (again, I’m making no assurances they are) and only these 13 teams are eligible, I think it comes down to Kelseyville and Willits for the last spot with the rest getting in. Kelseyville beat Willits it looks like in the league tournament yesterday to reach the finals today. If they win, then obviously that settles that. Otherwise, it comes down to Kelseyville having a worse record, but winning two of three over Willits and probably getting the berth. We’ll see. But let’s be honest, this bracket is all about St. Mary’s and Salesian, with possibly Cardinal Newman making some noise. I think whoever wins the BSAL title game get the No. 1 seed, the other gets the No. 2 and an unbeated Cardinal Newman gets the No. 3. But seeding committees tend to like unbeaten teams, so who knows what could happen with CN.
Predicted field: Arcata, Clear Lake, Cardinal Newman, Fort Bragg, Fortuna, Healdburg, Kelseyville, Marin Catholic, McKinleyville, Salesian, St. Mary’s, St. Patrick-St. Vincent.
Qualifying teams: Monte Vista (23-3), Deer Valley (20-6), Berkeley (21-6), American (20-8), Granada (17-9), Newark Memorial (19-8), Mission San Jose (16-12), James Logan (15-13), California (15-10), San Ramon Valley (14-12), College Park (16-10), Castro Valley (12-14 – winning record in league), Santa Rosa (15-12), Antioch (14-12).
League champions (3): Deer Valley, Berkeley, American/Newark winner.
At-Large Berth locks: Monte Vista, American/Newark loser, Granada, California, College Park.
Probably in: James Logan, San Ramon Valley, Santa Rosa.
Bubble teams: Mission San Jose, Antioch.
Longshot: Castro Valley.
Predicted at-large berths: Monte Vista, American/Newark loser, Granada, California, College Park, San Ramon Valley, Santa Rosa, James Logan and Mission San Jose.
Predicted seeding: 1. Monte Vista; 2. Deer Valley; 3. Berkeley; 4. American; 5. Newark; 6. Granada; 7. Cal; 8. Santa Rosa; 9. San Ramon Valley; 10. Logan; 11 College Park; 12. Mission San Jose.
Last spot: I think the top 11 seeds are fairly safe going into tomorrow’s NCS seeding meeting with the last spot coming down to Mission San Jose and Antioch. I ended up going with MSJ because it played a much tougher schedule and had a better overall record, but the Warriors’ lone key local win this year was against Castro Valley, a team that will definitely be left out. MSJ did win a tournament in Merced to strengthen its resume and nearly knocked off Newark on Thursday. Antioch has a win over Cal that could vault the Panthers into the playoffs, but that win over Cal was the first game of the year and the Grizzlies avenged that loss on Dec. 30. Tough decision to be made.
Seeding: Let’s be honest, there are only three teams that can win this tournament: Monte Vista, Deer Valley and Berkeley. Monte Vista is clearly the top seed, so that means the most important seeding is the 2 vs 3 because the winner of Deer Valley and Berkeley in the semis (a rematch of last year’s NCS final that Berkeley won) will get to go to NorCals. Both are league champs, so the No. 2 would get the home game. After looking closely at the body of work of both teams, Deer Valley should be the No. 2. The Wolverines have won 16 straight games and all six of their losses have came to teams ranked in the top-37 of the state by Maxpreps.com. They could have very easily scheduled themselves to an undefeated record. DV has a big time win over Oak Ridge (22-3) and beat Sheldon by twice as many points as Berkeley. Berkeley’s resume is very similar. It has won nine straight games and went undefeated in ACCAL play, which is a tougher league than the BVAL by most accounts because Pinole is in the league. Berkeley’s best wins are probably Grant and the two over Pinole. The one thing that Berkeley has that Deer Valley doesn’t is a glaring loss. Berkeley’s 28-point loss to Encinal just doesn’t make sense and with the two teams mirroring each other so closely, that could be the edge DV needs.
After that it’s pretty much a crap shoot. American and Newark play tonight in the MVAL championship game (a game I think American will win after watching the semis on Thursday), so that’s why I have American 4, Newark 5. Granada had a chance at the 4, but lost to Livermore last night, which will drop the Mats a little. Cal just lost Shelby Guittierez with a torn ACL, so that hurts Cal which could have a lot of trouble with Logan’s height if they meet in the first round. Santa Rosa and College Park are complete mystery teams. Santa Rosa hasn’t played an East Bay team and CP’s only Division 1 opponent was Monte Vista. SRV is without Jenna Giusti for the rest of the year sometimes has three freshmen and a sophomore on the court.
— Kyle Bonagura
Qualifying teams: Alameda (17-8), Carondelet (22-3), Clayton Valley (17-9), Hayward (9-14 .. 4-2 against D-II), Heritage (18-8), Livermore (13-13 … 5-2 against D-II), Maria Carrillo (14-12), Montgomery (19-8), Northgate (22-3), Petaluma (23-5), Pinole Valley (19-5), San Lorenzo (14-12), Sonoma Valley (16-12), Windsor (13-13 … 7-5 in league), Ukiah (13-14 … 9-5 league record)
League champions: Northgate, Carondelet, Petaluma
At-Large Berth locks: Alameda, Clayton Valley, Heritage, Montgomery, Pinole Valley, Sonoma Valley
Bubble teams: Hayward, Windsor, Livermore, San Lorenzo, Maria Carrillo, Ukiah
Predicted field: Northgate, Carondelet, Petaluma, Alameda, Clayton Valley, Heritage, Montgomery, Pinole Valley, Sonoma Valley, San Lorenzo, Windsor, Livermore
It appears there are 16 potentially eligible teams for 12 spots. Two teams, Kelseyville and Lower Lake, might be eligible if we had some results that are listed as missing, but honestly I don’t think it’ll matter because their are 14 definitely eligible teams that should be above them. And my honest assessment of this bracket is that nobody is going to beat St. Mary’s (sorry Moreau folks), so the seeding process might not matter much. — Jimmy Durkin
Qualifying teams: Arcata (13-13, Fortuna (24-3), Healdsburg (14-13), Justin-Siena (17-10), Kelseyville (11-13, two results missing, if they won both, they’d be .500 and eligible), Lower Lake (9-15, but 3-4 in league and two results missing that could make them above .500 in league), Marin Catholic (21-5), McKinleyville (19-5), Middletown (16-7), Moreau Catholic (20-5), Piedmont (17-9), St. Helena (23-1), St. Mary’s (23-4), St. Patrick-St. Vincent (15-12), Ursuline (19-8), Willits (21-15).
Locks: Fortuna, Justin-Siena, Marin Catholic, McKinleyville, Middletown, Moreau Catholic, Piedmont, St. Helena, St. Mary’s, St. Patrick-St. Vincent, Ursuline, Willits..
Bubble teams: My locks add up to 12, so I’m going to say that’s going to be the field and Arcata, Healdsburg, Kelseyville and Lower Lake (if even eligible) are all out. That seems simple enough. Let’s see if I’m right