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Fearless predictions

By Jimmy Durkin
Thursday, October 29th, 2009 at 7:30 pm in Uncategorized.

Here’s my next crack at predicting the games from the Alameda County leagues, excluding the EBAL since I’m guessing Kyle might cover that.

Friday

ACCAL
Berkeley (8-0, 4-0) at Hercules (2-5, 0-3), 6 p.m.
Galvin, Ned and the ‘Jackets should roll to another easy ACCAL victory. Score: Berkeley 59, Hercules 0
Actual score: Berkeley 62, Hercules 6

Pinole Valley (5-1, 2-1) at El Cerrito (4-3, 2-1), 7 p.m.
This should be a hard-fought and intense game. The Gauchos were embarassed during their homecoming game with Berkeley in a 50-0 loss and they’ll need to rebound from that. Pinole cruised by Hercules to get ready for this one. Having seen El Cerrito being blown out twice (granted, those were against the Nos. 3 and 5 teams in the East Bay), I have a hard time picking the Gauchos in this one. Score: Pinole Valley 28, El Cerrito 21.
Actual score: El Cerrito 17, Pinole Valley 13

Richmond (3-5, 2-2) vs. Alameda (3-3-1, 2-1), at Thompson Field, 7 p.m.
The Hornets can’t afford to lose another game this year and they’ll be prepared for this one. Score: Alameda 34, Richmond 12.
Actual score: Alameda 56, Richmond 0

BFL
St. Elizabeth (2-5, 0-3) at CSD (3-5, 1-2), 7 p.m.
Huge game for the Mustangs, who are playoff-qualified but need every win they can get. I think the offense will get hot again and earn the victory. Score: St. Elizabeth 32, CSD 14.
Actual score: St. Elizabeth 60, CSD 12

BSAL
Encinal (6-1, 4-0) at St. Patrick-St. Vincent (5-2, 3-1), 7:30 p.m.
Those who read the blog commments regularly know there is no love lost in this rivalry. Encinal blew out the Bruins at home last year and will try to do it again. I think SPSV is motivated because of the egg it laid last year and comes out more fired up at home, but that won’t be enough to knock off the Jets. Score: Encinal 41, SPSV 27.
Actual score: Encinal 55, SPSV 27

Moreau Catholic (4-3, 3-1) at Piedmont (4-3, 2-2), 7 p.m.
Huge, huge, huge as far as Division III playoff implications go. If the Mariners earn the road victory, they can pretty much stamp their ticket to the dance for the first time in a long while. If Piedmont wins, its playoff hopes are likely secured and Moreau will be stuck needing to upset SPSV or Encinal to help solidify its postseason aspirations. While Moreau has made great strides this year, I don’t think it’s quite ready to knock off Piedmont. Score: Piedmont 31, Moreau Catholic 21.
Actual score: Piedmont 55, Moreau Catholic 21

HAAL
Castro Valley (2-5, 2-2) vs. Hayward (5-2, 3-1), at Sunset Field, 7 p.m.
Hayward needs every win it can get and should take this one going away. Score: Hayward 34, Castro Valley 12.
Actual score: Hayward 28, Castro Valley 13

Mt. Eden (1-6, 1-3) at San Lorenzo (4-3, 3-1), 3:30 p.m.
The Rebels’ bubble burst last week against San Leandro, although I can’t say the score surprised me. Time for them to bounce back with a nice win. Score: San Lorenzo 20, Mt. Eden 6.
Actual score: San Lorenzo 19, Mt. Eden 12

MVAL
American (3-4, 2-2) at Newark Memorial (3-4, 1-2), 7 p.m.
A pair of non-contenders battle in this one. My hunch is Newark is still a program that’s a notch above. Score: Newark Memorial 27, American 6.
Actual score: Newark Memorial 23, American 14

James Logan (5-3, 3-0) vs. Mission San Jose (0-7, 0-4), at Tak Fudenna Stadium, 7 p.m.
Another easy win for the Colts and let’s keep adding to the Warriors’ losing streak, now at 20 on the field (a loss to Albany last year became a forfeit win, so technically the streak is at 15). Score: James Logan 51, Mission San Jose 0.
Actual score: James Logan 58, Mission San Jose 0

OAL
McClymonds (4-3, 1-1) vs. Fremont (1-6, 1-1), at Curt Flood Field, 3:30 p.m.
Why do I even attempt to predict the OAL anymore? In all seriousness, last week’s win by Fremont shouldn’t be all that surprising because at the beginning of the year I pegged them as a potential favorite, but when they lost a bunch of players to ineligibility, they stumbled. Now at full strength, they are once again a contender. But so is Mack and this is a very intriguing game that could go either way. Score: Fremont 26, McClymonds 20.
Actual score: Fremont 12, McClymonds 6

Oakland (2-4-1, 0-2) at Castlemont (3-3, 2-0), 3:30 p.m.
The Wildcats are a shell of what they were expected to be, thanks to the loss of QB Charles Cobbs to injury. The defending Silver Bowl champion Knights are in sole posssession of first place and at home and looking to avenge last year’s only loss to an OAL squad. I think they’ll do it. Score: Castlemont 27, Oakland 14.
Castlemont 31, Oakland 26

Skyline (2-5, 1-1) at Oakland Tech (5-2, 1-1), 3:30 p.m.
I don’t know quite what to make of Oakland Tech. I was very impressed when I saw them beat Ygnacio Valley, but their deficiencies at quarterback hurt them against Fremont. My hunch is last week’s loss was more about what Fremont did than what Tech didn’t do. Also, Skyline is a team that is showing to be capable of being very competitive after holding a 10-0 lead at halftime over Castlemont last week. The common opponent factor of what these teams did against Fremont can’t be used since it was two different Fremont teams, so I’ll pick Tech to bounch back, although if I was setting a line, I’d call this a pick ‘em game. Score: Oakland Tech 22, Skyline 20.
Oakland Tech 42, Skyline 26

Saturday
BFL
Valley Christian (4-3, 2-1) at Salesian (6-1, 3-0), 1:30 p.m.
After last week’s blowout loss against Berean Christian, the air is out of Valley Christian’s balloon. Move Salesian closer to an unbeaten run through the BFL. Score: Salesian 34, Valley Christian 14.
Actual score: Salesian 40, Valley Christian 7

BSAL
John Swett (3-4, 1-3) at St. Mary’s (5-2, 3-1), 1:30 p.m.
The Panthers proved they can compete with the league’s best with last week’s performance against Encinal. They’ll get back in the win column this week against a team not nearly up to the Jets’ caliber. Score: St. Mary’s 32, John Swett 6.
Actual score: St. Mary’s 42, John Swett 7

HAAL
San Leandro (5-2, 4-0) at Bishop O’Dowd (2-4-1, 2-2), 1:45p.m.
This may be the most lopsided matchup in this rivalry in quite a few years. Who knows? The Dragons could shock everybody and play their best game of the year and get a win. It also could be over by halftime. I’m guessing the more likely possibility is the latter. score: San Leandro 46, Bishop O’Dowd 20.

Tennyson (2-5, 0-4) at Arroyo (2-5, 1-3), 1 p.m.
Arroyo seems to be getting hot and the Lancers are ice cold, plus they typically struggle playing at Arroyo. Score: Arroyo 34, Tennyson 14.
Actual score: Arroyo 42, Tennyson 28

MVAL
Kennedy-Fremont (4-3, 2-1) vs. Washington (5-2, 3-0), at Tak Fudenna Stadium, 7 p.m.
The Titans are a solid team and the clear No. 4 in this league behind Washington, Logan and Newark. They should be a playoff squad after they get past American next week. But this is not a game they’ll have a chance in. Score: Washington 31, Kennedy 7.

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  • Panther Fan

    Sorry…3rd leading rusher in talent-laden East Bay.

  • Panther Fan

    Thanks Coach. I have that highlight tape that is on maxpreps. I have been trying to figure out time to do this stuff and work for living. Lol. I’m a very team-oriented guy (as is D) and I don’t like to push Coach to do stuff regarding an individual during the season, which I think should be devoted to team goals. Does that make sense? I have some people who are trying to help me. I’m just feeling a little overwhelmed by the whole thing to be honest.

    Thanks you for your words of encouragement. Really. It is meaningful. I WILL get out to a Jet’s game before it is all over to shake your hand and introduce myself.

    I hope you are right that they will find him. He sure is worth it.

    Go Panthers!

  • KillerD

    KillerD’s -

    Division 3 Rankings Week # 9 (if all teams finish with records as I project in this)…………………I will try to project D 1, 2 and 4 later this week:

    I forgot today is Daylight Savings, and it was dark outside as I began typing this for your Sunday pleasure…I look forward to your thoughts on this.

    1. Encinal – Jets are huge, fast, well coached and fierce. 2nd half detonation of a good St. Patricks team was a SHOUT to the NCS tournament selection committee members: “Encinal is the Big Dog in the Pound! There are some very good teams in the Top Tier of D3, and the BSAL is for real again, and we are the best team in D3 and our league.” Encinal should get 99% of the NCS selection committee votes for the #1 seed, and then will host the unfortunate bottom seed at home on the 3rd weekend in November. Despite some very critical injuries, the Jets keep on winning vs. good teams in their league.

    2. Marin Catholic – They’ll finish 9-1 & into the tournament with a head of steam on a nine-game winning streak. Problem is, the MCAL is down this year, and other than Novato – nobody poses a legitimate threat for the MCAL title. MC earns the nod as the 2nd seed, due to its win over Novato. They will host playoff games, and this year if they meet Encinal – it will have to be on a neutral field in the D3 championship. Maybe?

    3. Alhambra – a very close call and almost the number 2 seed, with wins over Healdsburg, Benicia and South SF, all good teams. Bulldogs will destroy Miramonte and finish 9-1, again looking to host a playoff game or two on their new field in Martinez. Bulldogs are big, fast and well coached, much in common with seeds # 1-2. Dave Silviera is one of the bay’s best and most established coaches, and the Bulldogs might win the whole shebang.

    4. Novato – With an opening season win over Foothill (Palos Cedro) it looked like the Hornets would maybe go 10-0. But that nice win recedes a bit as Foothill up north continues to tumble and is now 5-4. Other than that win, Novato does not have any other impressive wins, and also lost to a down Foothill (Pleasanton) and strong Oakdale, a nice gesture scheduling them, but two losses there, and dropping to MC does not equal a higher seed than Alhambra. No way on that.

    5. Healdsburg – Greyhounds should finish 6-4, after a nasty schedule and impressive wins over: Acalanes, Analy, and close losses to Alhambra and Windsor. Healdsburg’s last two games against Casa Grande and Petaluma – both Larger schools looks gloomy for wins, and the Hounds should hope to be healthy after two physical games upcoming. IF, the Hounds defeat either team these last two weeks, and finish 7-3, then they instantly Leap Frog the Novato team and hop into the 4th seed. But at 6-4 this is where they should be.

    6. Analy – The Tigers from Sebastopol should finish 6-4, after losing to Windsor if all goes as should. Analy has played a very solid schedule and their only losses will be to Healdsburg, and three other larger school playoff teams. Analy is a bit of an Anomaly (hard to gauge), but their league is very strong this year and that counts when considering them vs. the other teams threatening the upper 8 in D3.

    7. El Cerrito – Jekyl & Hyde team if there ever was one in D3 this year. Wow, one week the Gauchos run circles, fades and swing passes around whatever team is on the field against them, and the next they are terrible, and play the game without passion or energy? If EC finishes at 6-4 they remain here in the 7th slot, but if they upset Alameda this week, they would vault into the Top 6 or 5 spots for sure.

    8. Piedmont – Highlanders three losses to Encinal, St. Mary’s & Kern Valley, teams combined record of (19-4). And, their impressive blowout of a good Moreau team spoke volumes about the difference between the upper elite of D3 teams and the bottom half of the D3 pairings. If Piedmont finishes 7-3, they will overtake a 6-4 El Cerrito and Analy team, based on the strength of the BSAL. But if Piedmont finishes (6-4) it gets them into the top half of the bracket based on the lack of wins & lesser schedule of the teams below them chomping at their heels.

    9. Tamalpais – Under rookie head coach, Kevin Goyer, the Red-Tailed Hawks are flying high, having fun and a cinch to make the NCS playoffs again. They will beat upstart Terra Linda, and then lose to Marin Catholic, which will let them finish 7-3, losing this year to: Novato, Marin Catholic…but their very, very bad loss to a weak Justin-Siena team hurts their chances of moving any higher at all. Still a Top 10 seed though, especially if they keep it close vs. Marin Catholic.

    10. Acalanes – New Coach Ivankovich’s hybrid-shotgun-pistol-double-wing-run-the-clock-all-the-way-down-and-rarely-punt-the-football-offense is easy to prepare for, but very hard to stop…because the Dons keep pounding away. Think ‘Energizer Pink Bunny’ in slow motion and never stopping. Pound, Pound, Pound and then how about a Play-Action Pass for a TD when the Defense is in a stupor? They should beat Campolindo this weekend to finish (6-4) in a watered-down DFAL. To date, they have not beaten a high-caliber team, and could only manage to score a paltry 7-points in their loss to BSAL power St. Mary’s.

    11. JFK-Fremont————–What? Hey, keep reading about the Old Football Coach, excellent Pete Michaletos’ team will ya? Only a last-second loss to Dougherty Valley (whom Piedmont and Acalanes both beat) keeps this year’s Titans out of the Top 10 seeding club and a ‘nice table near the window.’ If JFK can defeat American (very possible) they will finish (5-5), a very respectable record having to slam heads against Washington, Logan and Newark, while trying remain healthy enough and finish at .500% in 2009.

    12. Fortuna – The Huskies have not beaten anybody with a winning record, and upon further review their league is horrible other than Eureka, and they have a terribly weak strength of schedule. If they lose to Eureka (D2) again as they should, they’ll finish with a 7-3 mark (losing to Ferndale (good), and Eureka twice). Problem is, the league Fortuna plays in has tragically fallen into ungodly despair – the wretch of the terrible economy has forced incredible migration Out of that Region, and a scourge of issues plague the stalwart squatters remaining still loving that glorious Redwood area. Talent level is WAY down up there, except at Ferndale, Eureka and Fortuna. Fortuna is not bad, but under no circumstances would they finish 7-3 if they played in the DFAL, BSAL, MCAL, MVAL or HAAL this year. Their competition is non-existent, and smart NCS voters will place Fortuna at the 12th or 13th seed based on those facts impossible to refute.

    13. Miramonte – Tragedy befell one of the Matadors during the off-season immediately after excellent Coach Wade departed. He then returned to his beloved Miramonte but it has been much harder to keep the Mats on their winning ways given a tough non-league schedule, some injuries and the talent a bit down compared to the last few years. Mats will finish (4-6) but they beat Campolindo. This unlucky 13th seeding places the Mats in-line to travel across the bay to play Novato – where they will spit fire and vinegar, only to end up losing valiantly to the Hornets.

    14. Campolindo – Solid coaching by Kevin Macy and Co. in a very down year, has kept the Cougars with a chance to finish at. 500% if they can defeat a beatable Las Lomas in their final game. But their loss to Miramonte and Oakland really hurt, and getting beat by El Cerrito denies them from moving beyond the bottom rung of NCS D3 playoff teams. The DFAL is down other than Alhambra, but Campo can still pull off an upset, they just won’t go all the way this year.

    15. Moreau – Prior to this season, Moreau was not even in the playoff chatter around anybody’s water cooler, but the Mariner’s are building a good program under up-and-coming coach Andrew Cotter’s guidance in the strong BSAL. Moreau’s solid showing vs. Galileo (SF) and San Lorenzo (HAAL) was tempting. But getting blown out by St. Mary’s and Piedmont displays irrefutable evidence for the prosecution that Moreau still must win the Big One to get seeded above 15th. The Mariners will use a 2009 playoff appearance to bolster their program for 2010 and beyond.

    16. Terra Linda – After losing this weekend to a terrible San Marin team, the Trojans of Terra Linda have had the curtain pulled back on them, they now stand shivering in their ‘birthday suit’ and the NCS committee will see them clearly. Terra Linda does not have to play Marin Catholic or Novato this year, although they are in the same league. Terra Linda’s dream run at a potential 6-4 record this year ended in a head-on collision this past weekend vs. weak San Marin. Now their not bad 2009 season will come to a frightening, and god awful nightmarish end, when they must travel to Encinal in the first-round of the NCS tournament. Terra Linda will get absolutely destroyed by the reigning BSAL champion throughout the entire game, and learn what it means to face a bevy of NCAA talent level with speed and size up close and personal.

  • ManDown

    I like this years Div.3 playoff picture. The top 4 teams in D3 will be good games if they get to play each other.

  • Prep Fan

    I don’t know if Miramonte or Campolindo gets in this year, unless they pull off upsets. Miramonte has a losing record and has to beat Alhambra (and Dougherty Valley – a given) to qualify. Campo is at .500 and has to beat either Acalanes or Las Lomas to qualify.

  • HS Football Fan

    Killer D – excellent read! I don’t know that I can really argue with anything you wrote, though I suspect the committee might give 7-3 teams like Tamalpais and Fortuna a higher seed than you did. So much depends on results from remaining games. If Acalanes loses to Campolindo, they’ll be 5-5 and their seed will drop.

    Prep Fan, I’m pretty certain Miramonte only needs to win one more game because they beat D-III San Marin early in the season, so beating Dougherty Valley would ensure them a winning D-III record. Campo has to beat either Acalanes or Las Lomas, both on the road, to qualify. Bishop O’Dowd can qualify if they beat both Castro Valley and Arroyo. Del Norte will also probably qualify by beating winless Arcata, but if they’re 3-6, would they get selected even over Terra Linda? And Sonoma Valley COULD qualify if they beat Analy (hard to imagine).

  • COACH JB

    yea we gave up 26 all because of sp teams. Something i will fix this week.

    We have a big game this week “tech”

    KNIGHT PRIDE !! 3-0 OAL

  • Panther Fan

    Killer D – I have been trying to find the great post you wrote ranking the leagues. Can you either remind me where that is or just tell me what league is better the BSAL or DVAL?

    Thanks D.

    Go Panthers!

  • the truth

    The BSAL. Easy one

  • KillerD

    The DVAL is ranked slightly better than BSAL this year.

  • Panther Fan

    Thanks D. While the league may be better, the quality of posts is sorely lacking.

    Go Panthers! Go Civility

  • HitStick

    Hey PantherFan hope your kid gets a chance to play at the next level, I am confident if he shows the same work ethic, heart and passion for the game, he can really be quite a find for the right program. Good luck to you guys!

  • Panther Fan

    HitStick – Thanks a lot for the kind words.

    Go Panthers!