- East Bay Prep Corner
NCS playoff breakdown: Division I
By Kyle Bonagura
Monday, November 2nd, 2009 at 2:02 pm in Uncategorized.
With NCS deciding to take qualified teams up to 16, every team that qualifies will probably get in.
More football is a good thing.
Amador Valley (7-1, 4-1 EBAL) – (Livermore, @Foothill)
Best case: Finish at 9-1, get a seed in the 2-4 range.
Worst case: Lose to Foothill to finish 8-2. Washington beats Logan, Cal beats DLS. AV could be as low as No. 6. Not likely.
Berkeley (9-0, 5-0 ACCAL) — (Pinole Valley)
Bese case: Win and a Deer Valley loss, committee likes undefeated record more than Amador at 9-1. Earn No. 2 seed.
Worst case: Lose. Could end up as low as 5 or 6.
California (5-3, 4-1 EBAL) — (@MV, @DLS)
Best case: Win both. Of course no one can expect a win over DLS, so 6-4 is a more realistic best-case. Wins over SRV, Foothill, MV, Granada would be good enough to get Cal in the 6-8 range.
Worst case: Lose both. Figure they still end up ahead of Foothill/SRV/Newark/Heritage
De La Salle (@Foothill, California)
Best case: Win final two games, earn top seed.
Worst case: DLS will be too physical for Foothill, but the Cal game should be another test. If DLS were to lose to Cal, then it’d be interesting to see where it would get seeded.
Deer Valley (8-0, 3-0 BVAL) — (@Antioch, Heritage)
Best case: Win both, DLS loses to Cal. No. 1 seed. DLS wins out, No. 2 is in the bag for DV.
Worst case: Lose both… not going to happen, but at that point DV still wouldn’t drop too far with wins over Washington, Logan, Pitt.
James Logan (6-3, 4-0 MVAL) — (@Washington, Kennedy)
Best case: Win both, finish 8-3 (including forfeit win over Fremont). Record vs D-1 playoff teams would only be 2-3 … doesn’t bode for a high seed, but would definitely be ahead of Washington, Heritage, Newark, San Leandro, maybe 2 of the EBAL schools.
Worst case: Lose to Washington, finish 7-4. Seeding gets tricky as Logan’s only win of note would be considered Newark. Although, they were a play away from beating Deer Valley and Monte Vista…
Foothill (5-3, 2-3 EBAL) — (DLS, @Amador)
Best case: Beat Amador in the rivalry game to finish 6-4, Cal beats MV. Could end up in the No. 7 range.
Worst case: Get blown out twice (three in a row to end the year). End up around 11/12.
Heritage (6-2, 2-1 BVAL) — (Freedom, @Deer Valley)
Best Case: Win both, possibly earn the BVAL title (not sure what a three-way tie breaker with Heritage/Pitt/DV would be. At 8-2 with a win over a 9-1 Deer Valley team, Heritage could shoot up the ladder. Not likely with blowout losses to Monte Vista and Pitt, the two best teams it has played.
Worst case: Finish 7-3, no key wins. Have to think Pats would fall below Foothill, SRV, San Leandro, Cal … would be at a similar level as Logan if Logan loses to Washington.
Monte Vista (5-3, 2-3 EBAL) — (Cal, @ SRV)
Best case: Win both. At 7-3, with wins over Pitt, Heritage, Logan, Cal, SRV, Granada the Mustangs could be as high as No. 5. Would probably be between them and Washington for that spot.
Worst case: Lose both. Still would probably get seeded ahead of a 6-4 Pitt team and a 7-3 Heritage team based on the blowout wins.
Pittsburg (@Liberty, Antioch)
Best case: Win both. At 6-4 with wins over Heritage and Burbank are the only key wins. Factor in Heritage is most likely a bottom-4 seed, Pitt’s resume isn’t all that impressive this year. The talent is a different story. Behind Monte Vista, Washington, Cal, likely San Leandro
Worst case: A loss to Antioch? Doubtful, but worst case. At which point Pitt could be as low as No. 12.
San Leandro (6-2, 5-0 HAAL) — (@Tennyson, Castro Valley)
Best case: Win both. Impossible to figure where the Pirates figure in from a seeding standpoint because they’ll be undefeated against NCS teams.
Worst case: I guess worst case would be a loss, but that’s not going to happen. Probably will take a hit in the coaches rankings because they got beat pretty bad in its losses to the two WCAL schools and struggled with Arroyo.
San Ramon (5-3, 2-3 EBAL) — (@Granada, Monte Vista)
Best Case: Win both, finish at 7-3. Could be seeded as high as No. 5 if that were to happen.
Worst Case: Lose both, looking at 10-13 range.
Washington (6-2, 4-0 MVAL) — (Logan, Irvington)
Best Case: Win final two. Cal wins out. Maybe crack the top 4 seeds — probably looking at the No. 5 or 6.
Worst case: Lose to Logan, Cal finishes at 5-5. Fall behind Logan, Monte Vista — maybe as low as No. 9/10 depending on other games (Heritage/DV, Foothill/AV etc).
5 BUBBLE TEAMS — what they need to do to get in:
Antioch – Needs 1 win (Deer Valley, Pittsburg)
Granada – Needs 2 wins (SRV, Livermore)
Newark – Needs 1 win (Irvington, Mission San Jose)
College Park – Needs 2 wins (Clayton Valley, Ygnacio Valley)
American – Needs 2 wins (Kennedy-Fremont, Valley Christian-Dublin)
Arroyo – Needs 2 wins (San Lorenzo, Bishop O’Dowd)
[Both comments and pings are currently closed.]
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:08 pm
good breakdown…
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
There are going to be some really bad teams in the playoffs! 16 is way too many and someone is going to get hurt. Can you imagine De La hosting American in round one? HA HA
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:45 pm
What if Heritage loses to Freedom, possible with how Freedom played against Pitt in the first half? Heritage has problems with teams that have athletes and if Freedom is fully healthy, they have exactly the type of athletes that gives Heritage problems.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:11 pm
Wow, lots of teams are going to finish with 7 wins or more. Will there be 3 playoff games or 4? How does the bracketts work?
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:41 pm
Bummer if they play 2nd round games on Friday 27th – there will be some good matchups and I’ll be out of town.
Anyone know how they decide to play on Friday or Saturday – NCS website is vague…
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:51 pm
Round of 16 (or 13/14/15 depending on how many teams qualifiy)
Round of 8
Round of 4
Championship.
Teams with the better seed generally get to pick Friday or Saturday first. But they were able to that easier last year when all the coaches were in the same room.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:08 pm
Jimmy D – How are the BSAL and East Bay Leader stats coming? Thanks for all your hard work.
Go Panthers!
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:02 pm
If Heritage has trouble with teams that have “athletes” how are they going to beat anyone? You shouldn’t be in the playoffs without athletes. Too many teams who don’t belong! I hope American makes it as the 16th seed, that would be pretty funny.
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:36 pm
hey stuart, i know the feeling missing good games due to out of town and/or working, one that i missed was the oakland city section aka the silver bowl with oakland tech vs skyline included current NFL players marshawn lynch and josh johnson. it was a great game.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:52 am
no way College Park or American make it in this year. Ygnacio Valley and Clayton Valley both beat a Mt. Diablo team that beat College Park. CV is too much for the Falcons because both are run first teams and CV is much better defensively. I mean, this team lost to Antioch and Washington already, so the top 2 Division 2 teams should be able to get it done.
American on the other hand.. I dont know if anyone here has heard of Valley Christian, but they actually are doing pretty well for a first year division four school. if anybody remembers Dougherty Valley last year, they were able to beat the worst Division one teams, so I dont think an upset is really all that much an upset. The VC quarterback is a transfer from a public school in San Jose, Nick Rubio, a good one by for a small school. I heard he could’ve chose DLS or VC and VC was closer and much more welcoming than DLS. but they didnt turn him away with the qb problems they had at their own school. with Pacos the preseason starter not playing any EBAL games, and Herting out, they’ve gone with sophomore Houston the JV guy last year so that shows you how much DLS could’ve used a good senior qb leader. all that veer nonsense, just really handing off to your stud rb let the lines do that misdirection not the qb fakes all as much
but I think VC has a chance and American needs to play much better, this isn’t Tennyson or Mission SJ we’re talking about lol
umm Kyle is this still the story: avoid getting the 4/5 and 8/9 spots because seasons over if you move on to face DLS.. i think even if berkeley deserves a top four spot, if they run into DLS ppl will say it was too early and what not. likewise if it were amador or monte vista or god pittsburg anybody doesnt really ever want to face them in NCS because its one and you’re done. the teams that dont mind going up against them like the pirates arent doing too good this year and the ebal teams should hope for some semifinals at least because with this new format a lot more league champs will make it and probably fall first to the Spartans before the EBAL teams. MV, Cal, or SRV seeded 6-7 or 10 will get lucky avoiding that and just watch make it up to a big showdown with a Logan or Washington or Deer Valley..
everybody call me on this BERKELEY Will Meet an EBAL school in the first round if they get a first round game. if they get a bye, it’ll still be an EBAL team, and they’ll win. Quote Me I know somehow it’ll work out and they’ll shock the world
well not really too shocking. if they played them more often they would win. foothill and monte vista like 6 years ago or something the last time they have.. san leandro beat MV and SRV in 05 but kept playing them to repeat and couldn’t do it. so unless your’e absolutlely stacekd with nico herrons, jamel hamlers, scottie cordiers, and dennis dixons, its just business
November 3rd, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Wouldve mentioned Arroyo before American thats for sure
November 3rd, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Herting was the jv qb last year. Houston was the frosh qb last year. he is a soph this year and ya they struggled at the beginning but it’s worked out pretty well for them since he took over as the starter don’t you think? Kid can throw. Needs a little work on his accuracy with the deep throws. He will be a big time qb in a year just like Matt Gutierrez was. Herting’s not injured anymore but Houston has stepped up so no change.
November 3rd, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Souz, you’re right Arroyo is still in the mix … I’ve updated the post.
However, I still think it’s more likely that American will beat Kennedy and Valley Christian, than Arroyo beating San Lorenzo and O’Dowd.
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:26 pm
Arroyo is a better team than American, but the Dons blew two games they should have won (Irvington and Castro Valley), otherwise they’d be in the mix.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:34 pm
Dont be surprised to Arroyo making a run into NCS, they have winnable games ahead of them. They will play to win at all costs to keep “The Helmet” against cross town rival San Lorenzo and have an oppurtunity to beat an O’dowd team that isn’t as good as usual this year
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:48 pm
HAAL_2009,
The “Helmet Game” is always intense and I think it’ll be as good this year as its been in awhile, and they’ve had some pretty good games in recent history.
Small sidebar, the first game I ever covered as a sports writer was the 2003 Helmet Game at Arroyo that San Lorenzo won in 27-24 in OT. That was the year where Slz eventually went to the NCS 2A title game while being coached by current Heritage coach Jeff Haagenson.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:50 pm
Panther Fan,
Just saw your comment. I’m hoping to receive the BSAL stats tomorrow, but I’m off so I might not get them posted until Thursday. Then, once all the other leagues stats are available for me, I’ll compile the East Bay leaders on Thursday.
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Durkin
The Helmet game has been close except for the 2007 and 2006 games where Arroyo put up 100 points in 2 years, last year i think was kept close because of the terrible conditions. But like stated earlier, records will be thrown out the window in this one and both teams will play their hearts out, i know i will.
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:11 pm
DLS vs. Deer Valley
Berkeley vs. Amador
These are the two division I games this fan would like to attend, and of course the title game too.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:56 am
KillerD’s – Division I Peek:
With Huge amounts of Respect to every team in the D1 Field, this year’s Playoffs only come down to 4 things:
De La Salle, Berkeley, Deer Valley and Amador.
1. Deer Valley – How can you rank an undefeated DV team ahead of an ‘unbeaten in the past NCS for a Thousand Years De La Salle team???’
DV has size, speed, scheme and athletes to make enough big plays to win. And, it has been proven twice already this year by Bosco and Lakeland, that if a team has good schemes and a bevy of Top Flight athletes – it can destroy DLS (Bosco did) and/or Beat DLS in a close game (Lakeland did). Both teams defeated DLS remain undefeated and will finish that way in the regular season. DV is for real in 2009 and they will Win the NCS D1 Crown.
2. De La Salle – What? Oh COME ON!!! How can this DLS team NOT be the TOP RANKED Team?
Well, take a DEEP breath and keep on readin’……Wins count more than losses do, and IF the Spartans had beaten Lakeland, FL at home on their surrogate DVC turf, then YES they would be # 1. BUT, they did not and with Two losses, AND very close come from behind wins vs. a 5-3 Serra team and Amador Valley, the Spartans are very good, but they are NOT better than DV.
3. Berkeley – ‘The Yellow Jackets Don’t play Nobody,’ that’s all one ever hears from the football people East of the Caldecott Tunnel. Hmmm. The Jackets will lose to DV in one of the most exciting Semi-final games in recent memory of the NCS playoffs in a Sizzling game featuring truckloads of gamebreaking plays by amazingly talented athletes.
4. Amador Valley – The ONLY thing between a great season of (9-1) for the Dons is Foothill. And, bright pigskin soothsayers understand that the Falcons have zero running game in 2009, and in order to win, outstanding Qb Mannion will have to throw for 700-yards and 8 touchdowns to defeat Amador. Problem is, that’s impossible to do, when the Falcon defense is on the field for 3/4 of the game as the Dons run wild going into the playoffs.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:22 am
killer D enjoy the posts but comparing the athletes on Bosco and Lakeland to DV is talking about two different things. DV does not have the talent either of those teams had and both would wipe the floor with DV. The Bosco game was a blowout but i’m not sure how many people know this, DLS fumbled the ball 10 times in that game and lost two or three giving Bosco numerous short fields. One score Bosco started on DLS’ two yard line. Not to mention the numerous penalties on the Spartan Offense that stalled drives. Bosco had maybe one time where they had to drive down the field the whole game. Plus once the turnovers stopped Bosco was held to a td in the third quarter. Now I still think Bosco would have won because they have one of the best defenses i have ever seen, but it would not have been a blowout.
I am not alone in noticing that this DLS team is playing at a higher level then they did against Amador. Plus I have to ask you, you keep mentioning all these top flight athletes, well who besides Kristoff Williams? I am seeing Ward, Anderson, Wynn, Marre, Waldren, Lawrence, Renaud, and Pickett and wondering who DV could have that tops those? We heard people last year that said Pitt had too many athletes for DLS to much size and speed and look what happened.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Renegades10-
Just one man’s opinion and I look forward to all of the D1-5 playoff games.
November 5th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
What if the playoffs come down to De la Salle, Amador, Cal and Monte Vista
November 5th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
all ebal yeah right,
November 5th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Could definately happen, depends on seating. Foothill is also still a sleeper.
November 5th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
It’s all about the match-ups, exacerbated by the injuries factor. SRV, Foothill and MV could all have better running games if key players healthy. If fast good receviers are out, or key linemen or ‘backers gone, teams will suffer that don’t have enough depth – and there are a lot of those. … We need the newstypes here to dig deep and give us some injury reports! (As if they don’t have enough to do.) I know that’s not public, hard to get, etc., but must be a way. Insiders can also help. How’s Johnson, how’s whoever?
November 5th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
As I mentioned on another thread, Cameron Rowland is out for the year for Foothill. That will just kill their chances to be a sleeper, as he was by far their best threat through the air. He was having a heck of a season.
November 5th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Whistle, agreed! And you make the point – the injuries matter. Cal without Reggie Davis, MV without Johnson, Granada without Kearney, list goes on and on. Bet Sweeney comes up with some ideas for the loss of Rowland, though agreed, Rowland should be concensus all-league choice with McGovern. He would have had big games left, and at least with Amador Valley. Hope his helmut-to-helmut he took won’t keep him out of contention for that.
November 5th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Depth is key. If you’ve got one guy you rely on without a reasonable backup its over. I view Foothill lack of a consistent running game to be a far bigger issue than anything else. I forget the kid that stepped up with 2 HUGE catches on the last drive vs MV #3 I think, but with that kind of effort, Mannion can continue to be effective through the air. If they can’t at least run the ball to throw off the defense, big time trouble.
I do find it interesting that relying on the running game is typically regarded as an problem if you can’t throw. With MV and Foothill it is being proved if you don’t have the ability to pound the ball on occasion a great passing attack can be severely exposed. Two Pac-10 bound QB’s with average running game equals an average season it seems………
November 5th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
Yes Ebal1, running game crucial even for passing teams, despite examples like, even though MV knew passes were coming Garret Moore #2 made huge catches- but over the course of the game you need both. Examples, Foothill lost Nick Quon (and others), MV lost Johnson but if both can come back, that will be big boost for those offenses. And, if defenses depleted of guys that play both sides, that means really tough time, like Cal vs. no-Quon, no Zach Buen Foothill defense – like MV without a Wilkerson. Ouch.
November 8th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
So of the the teams on the bubble, Arroyo and Granada are out due to losses this week. Newark is in. Antioch, College Park and American are still mathematically alive. Antioch and College Park have very tough games this week. American seems to have the best shot to fill that 15th spot.
The teams that would move up or down the list from this weekend’s play are Monte Vista, Cal, Washington and Logan. How do those two games alter the playoff picture?
November 8th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Logan and Washington should move more than MV and Cal, whoe were next to each other at #7 & #8 in the East Bay poll and will no doubt switch places. They played a tight game that was tied at 24 going into the 4th quarter before the Mustangs broke it open late. Logan could move past Cal but since they lost to MV, may still get stuck behind them. Washington will fall, but will likely stay ahead of Cal who they beat in week 1. Maybe MV at #6, Logan #7, Washington #8 and Cal #9 in the East Bay rankings.
November 8th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
div 1 committee now has a nightmare…i think logan sneaks into the #6 now…behind a just about given, dls, dv, berkeley, av, mv as top 5…logan is 8-3 with one of best records remaining plus has a win over quality team in washington…and two loses vs higher ranked opponents in final seconds…
after that who knows…washington beat cal finishes 7-3…cal finishes prob 5-5 beat srv and foothill but lost to washington…pittsburgh only quality win heritage and 6-4 but 2 good losses vs mv and berkeley…srv prob 6-4 beat foothill but lost to cal…foothill prob 5-5 with win over mv and logan, but losses to srv, cal, and granada a team that won’t even qualify…sl 8-2 but no good wins…heritage 7-3 probably but again no good wins and 2 blowout losses so far wait to see how they play dv…i think everyone has a case for the #7 seed yet could end up with a #12 seed….if they weigh head to head the most washington gets the 7 and cal gets the 8…if they go record sl would get the 7 then washington or heritage…if they go ebal love it could go cal, srv, foothill…who knows…i do think cal has to get ranked ahead of srv and foothill though…and srv ahead of foothill with head to head and better record…washington probably seeded above cal because they beat them and will finish with 2 more wins…but who really knows…
November 8th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
yes but don’t forget foothill handed logan it’s worst loss of the season and they beat MV but lost to Cal and also have the loss to granada and srv. So that may hurt logan a little.
November 8th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
I have to admit it is a tough task to rank these teams. You can’t just say that because one team beat another, they must be ranked ahead of them. That logic is great in the first couple of weeks of the season, but now that most of the games have been played, you have to take into account all the games, and not just head to head with certain teams. Renegades is right that Logan’s loss to Foothill should hurt them, as should Cal’s loss to Washington. But when Cal trounces Foothill last week, it shakes everything up. The good thing is that all of these teams will get a chance to get it done on the field, and whether they were seeded 3rd, 6th, 9th or 11th won’t matter after they have played a couple of games. Whoever is playing the best football at the time will move on.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
The top 4 are certainly set. Spots 5 through 13 are extremely messy. Let’s assume no big upsets in the last week – Deer Valley beats Heritage, Amador beats Foothill, DLS beats Cal, Monte Vista over SRV. With only one quality win, over Washington, I cannot see Logan at number 6. Likewise Pittsburg, Heritage and San Leandro have no quality wins. Washington has a quality win early in the season against Cal. All the EBAL teams have both quality wins and losses.
Here is my take, again assuming no upsets this week.
5. Monte Vista
6. Cal
7. Logan
8. SRV
9. Pittsburg
10. Foothill
11. Washington
12. San Leandro
13. Heritage
November 9th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
Just a quick note about MV and the running game losing Johnson was tuff but the back ups have played well and the have been running by commitee with Sullas and Wilkerson averaging over 100 yds a game so they haven’t lost that much. I think Rowland is a much bigger loss for Foothill he has length and really nice hands I see Mannion going to his TE more like the DLS game.