- East Bay Prep CornerNCS Division IV playoff breakdown
By Jimmy Durkin
Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009 at 8:07 pm in General.
Here’s my look at the NCS Division IV football playoffs.
There are already nine teams eligible. Alphabetically, those eligible teams are: Berean Christian, Cloverdale, Ferndale, Fort Bragg, Harker, Middletown, St. Mary’s, St. Patrick/St. Vincent and Salesian.
I have the following eight teams considered locks:
BEREAN CHRISTIAN 6-2, 3-1 BFL, 2-2 Div. IV — The possibility of an expanded field makes them a lock now, even if they lost to Harker. They will beat Mission San Jose this week, so at worst we’re looking at a 7-win team.
CLOVERDALE 7-1, 2-0 NCL-I South, 6-1 Div. IV — League title will likely come down to season finale with Div. V St. Vincent, but will earn a berth regardless
FERNDALE 8-0, 2-0 HDNL Little 5, 4-0 Div. IV — After a bye, the Wildcats resume their bid at an undefeated season
FORT BRAGG 6-2, 1-1 NCL-I North, 2-2 Div. IV — Lost a Div. IV showdown to Cloverdale, which should affect its seeding but not its place in the field
MIDDLETOWN 7-1, 2-0 NCL-I North, 4-1 Div. IV — Still looking like a likely league champion
SALESIAN 7-1, 4-0 BFL, 5-1 Div. IV — Looking like probably the No. 3 seed
ST. MARY’S 6-2, 4-1 BSAL, 3-0 Div. IV — At worst a No. 2 seed
ST. PATRICK/ST. VINCENT 5-3, 3-2 BSAL, 2-2 Div. IV — A couple of fairly tough games with Moreau and especially against Piedmont to close the year. They make the field regardless though, because I think SPSV is the perfect example of a team that the NCS would not want to see denied a playoff spot because they are definitely a good enough team to be in the playoffs.
Now I have teams I consider probables at the moment, provided the NCS decides to up this to a 12-team field.
CLEAR LAKE 4-4, 1-2 NCL-I South, 2-3 Div. IV — If they beat either a 3-5 St. Helena or a 1-7 Lower Lake, my guess is the NCS will take an eligible 5-win team in an expanded bracket. If they win both, they almost definitely will get in with six wins I think.
HARKER 5-2, 1-2 BFL, 0-2 Div. IV — I think with five wins, they’ll probably get in to an expanded field since my guess is the NCS will view any team that has five wins as being worthy of expanding the field to get in.
JUSTIN-SIENA 3-5, 3-2 MCAL, 0-1 Div. IV; Need to win at least one of the final two to be eligible and I think two wins to get them to 5-5 will probably make them a lock to make an expanded field. Even at 4-6, the strength of playing in the MCAL and the fact that they are the defending champions might be a good enough reason to boost the field to get them in.
VALLEY CHRISTIAN 4-4, 2-2 BFL, 1-4 Div. IV — The game against CSD is huge, since they need to win to become eligible. Luckily they should win that one and be eligible not only with a 3-2 league record, but a .500 overall. If they can also beat American to get to 6-4, they are a lock.
Bubble:
MCKINLEYVILLE 4-3, 2-0 HDNL Little 5, 1-1 Div. IV — Coming off a bye, they face 7-1 Hoopa Valley and 8-0 Ferndale to close the season. A 4-5 record is possible and while they will be eligible with at least a .500 league record, I don’t know that the committee would open itself up to expansion for a 4-5 team. A win over Hoopa and a 5-4 record would give the NCS a very tough decision to make if there are indeed 13 eligible teams.
And here’s the one longshot:
ST. HELENA 3-5, 0-3 NCL-I South, 1-4 Div. IV — Have to beat both a 4-4 Clear Lake team and a 1-7 Upper Lake to become eligible. The Clear Lake game will be tough, especially since Clear Lake is fighting for a playoff berth as well. One loss and they are out of the discussion.
The new rule within NCS of allowing the field to expand up to 16 makes projecting this really complicated. Just for my purposes of setting a line to go by, I’m going to predict the NCS expands this field to 12, but no larger. In the case of the NCS expanding the field to 12, these are my teams to make the field, listed alphabetically:
Berean Christian, Clear Lake, Cloverdale, Ferndale, Fort Bragg, Harker, Justin-Siena, Middletown, Salesian, St. Mary’s, St. Patrick-St. Vincent, Valley Christian.
And my blind stab in the dark at seeding:
1. Ferndale — The NCS loves undefeated teams
2. St. Mary’s — Might have to consider them the favorites
3. Salesian
4. Middletown
5. Cloverdale — Could easily flip-flop with Middletown, but they still have to play St. Vincent for the league title
6. St. Patrick-St. Vincent — Could set up an interesting potential semifinal rematch with Salesian
7. Berean Christian — If Harker beats them, give Harker this spot
8. Fort Bragg
9. Harker
10. Valley Christian — Needs to beat CSD for eligibility
11. Justin-Siena — Still have to win at least one of final two to become eligible
12. Clear Lake — Should become eligible by winning one of final two
That has my leaving out an eligible McKinleyville team, which I have a hard time doing because it’s a team I have actually seen play this year when they beat McClymonds and they are a solid squad. I just don’t know if the NCS would look at a team with a losing overall record (provided they lost to both Hoopa Valley and Ferndale) and decide to expand to 13 for them or select them over Clear Lake or Justin-Siena. However, if they beat Hoopa and clinched at worst a 5-4 season (and Calpreps does project them to win that game for what it’s worth), I could see them getting in. Also, if either Clear Lake, Justin-Siena or Valley Christian doesn’t become eligible, these guys should make a 12-team field.
[Both comments and pings are currently closed.]
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Jimmy D – Good stuff, as always. So how does it work? The first 4 seeds get a bye? Then is it 5 v. 12, 6 v. 11, etc..? To win NCS, a team still would have to win 3 games? Can you help me out when you get a chance?
Thanks Jimmy D.
Go Panthers!
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:43 pm
Yeah Panther Fan, in a 12-team field the first four teams would get byes, then 5 v. 12, 6 v. 11, 7 v. 10, 8 v. 9. The top seed would play 8 v. 9, second seed plays 7 v. 10 and so on. So a top-four seed would need to win 3 games to take the title, a 5 through 12 seed would need 4 wins for a title.
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:08 pm
How does Ferndale’s system and discipline match up against St. Mary’s or St. Patricks speed or that of Salesian?
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:21 pm
Somebody somewhere pointed out that the expansion of the playoffs is probably driven by the prospect of more revenue from attendance at the playoff games. Therefore, if 13 teams are qualified, I have to think 13 teams will get invited. Using your seedings, I can’t imagine Middletown being upset about the prospect of an extra home game against McKinleyville.
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:27 pm
For some reason, my gut feeling is that NCS will use the barometer of a qualified team with an above .500 overall record as the standard for determining if the field should expand to include that team. I could be dead wrong, but that’s my gut feeling. That’s why I’m unsure a 4-5 McKinleyville team would get in when it would expand the field to 13. (My other gut instinct is the NCS would like to keep it to even numbers of teams; again just a gut). Like I said before though, I’ve seen McKinleyville play and gut out a road win against a tough McClymonds team, so I’d agree they are a playoff worthy team.
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:33 pm
D4 games appealing to me:
Ferndale vs. St. Marys
Middletown vs. St. Pats
Salesian vs. Cloverdale
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:42 pm
killerd u seem like a big big high school football fan, not mad at that, hope u get a chance to come down and see b high
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:53 pm
Jimmy D – Like the seedings. If the Panthers get that top seed because of strength of schedule, would Salesian have a chance at the 2 seed if St. Mary’s was our only loss?
St. Pats vs Justin
Berean vs VC
Those would be some great 1st round games!
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:48 pm
I forget, did SM basketball win Division IV NCS last year? If so, SM football can make it a perfect trifecta following SM baseball’s championship last Spring. If not, maybe basketball can complete the sweep this coming season. Go Panthers.
P.S. Panther Fan: Been enjoying your posts. You carry the Panther banner very well!
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:55 pm
No, the Div. IV NCS basketball title was won by Salesian, which also won the BSAL title and the Div. IV NorCal and state titles.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:01 pm
Thanks Jimmy. I think I was trying to block out of my mind the three/four (?) wins by the Pride over SM. I kept thinking you can’t beat a good time 3x/4x, but Salesian proved me wrong. Some revenge in Spring as the baseball team beat the Pride three times (last one for NCS title)
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:56 pm
I figured that! It really was unbelievable and a true testament to how good that Salesian basketball team was. St. Mary’s was a very good team and it seemed impossible for Salesian to beat them four times, yet they just kept doing it.
But as you said, SM has gotten a little revenge on the diamond and thus far the gridiron.
November 4th, 2009 at 6:56 am
Salesian has an outstanding Athletic Dept top to bottom, boys and girls sports equally propped up.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:05 am
Not only does Salesian have a great Athletic Department, but their school spirit is fantastic. The support for their teams by students, parents and alum is impressive. Great school and great community.
Go Panthers!
November 4th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
Jimmy D – How can you say you could easily flip flop Middletown and Cloverdale? Middletown beat them head to head at Cloverdale.
November 5th, 2009 at 8:17 am
Good call Big Dog, I missed that one. Middletown is definitely ahead of Cloverdale.
Btw…I missed answering Chieftain Forever back up at No. 9. I would have a hard time imagining an undefeated Ferndale team drop all the way to No. 3 knowing how much the NCS values undefeated teams. So even if St. Mary’s were to sneak up and grab the top seed, Salesian probably would still be No. 3.
November 5th, 2009 at 8:23 am
Ballfan – Thank you for the compliment. I just noticed your kind words.
Go Panthers!
November 5th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Nice predictions. Too bad those BFL stats have never been posted.Siiiggghhhh….poke at JD
Panther Fan, if they hand out awards for MVB on this site, you would win! (Most Valuable Blogger)
November 5th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Jimmy,
Love your work It’s great to see the small school coverage. The NCS website has posted a letter as of 11/3/09 that ALL D IV teams (up to a max of 16) who are eligible according to the guidelines, and who then apply by Nov 14th at 10PM, WILL make the playoffs. McKinleyville is a lock because they are 2-0 in league and at worst would finish 2-2 and even if Willits loses to Ft. Bragg & Middletown and finishes 3-7 they are 2-0 in league and are therefore a lock to make the playoffs if they apply. Justin Sienna is a lock with one win in final 2 games, Kelseyville is eligible at 4-6 if they beat Ft. Bragg the last game of the season (2-2 in league). St. Helena is in if they win their last two and Clear Lake is in if they win either of their last 2. Therefore it is possible that 16 of the 17 teams in NCS DIV could be in the postseason. (Swett being the only team left out) However it is likely that 14 will be eligible when the dust settles and #1 and #2 seeds would get 1st round bye’s. I for one appreciate the expansion of DIV to all eligible teams because it gives the small public schools a chance to play in a division where 7 of the 17 teams are private, not to mention Ferndale. All 7 of which are usually the front runners to make the playoffs (7 of your top 11 seeds) And it will make for some really entertaining first and second round games between teams that otherwise would likely NEVER play each other. And helps us swallow the bitter pill of being the only division without a state playoff game!!
November 5th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
Thanks for the tipoff DIV Fan. Just went and read that letter and I get the impression they aren’t saying that for sure they will take all eligible teams, but that Division IV is eligible to expand to 16.
Since it was originally scheduled as an 8-team bracket, going up to 16 adds an extra week to the season. And the original release about the expansion said they would expand any bracket where it wouldn’t add on to the season. So I think that letter is saying that they will expand Division IV, but won’t expand Division V.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Jimmy,
Our AD announced to the team that he got a call from someone at NCS explaining that DIV would expand up to 16 teams and that ANY team that qualified and applied would make the playoffs. (Needless to say it has changed the mindset of a team that was just playing out the season to one of absolute excitement on getting a “do-over”. This is still conjecture however under the NCS eligibility rules how could they exclude say a 4-6 team that is 3-1 in league and accept a 5-5 team that is 3-4 in league for example. It seems that it is either accept all eligible teams or just leave it the same. Thanks again for doing what you do.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Cool, thanks for the insight.